>>1307565
> expecting that you will not be unlucky and just simply hit at EX value is the said insanity.
I don't see why expected value is even needed for this. You are guaranteed gold-tier within 90 rolls. You get 70 rolls, get 15 free rolls in the process, use those rolls and claim another 5 from the 80th roll to roll a total of 90 times. There is no need to buy any more than 70 rolls if someone only wants the skin.
I am not assuming any luck here. This does not change even if the base/overall drop rate was 0.0001%. It would be more insane to say the real price for the skin is $250 because people are supposed to buy 90 rolls for it.
> surprisingly not THAT cheaper if you are not going for the biggest pack, getting more plums that you need in the process.
It doesn't matter if you don't go for the biggest pack, everything above the $5 one is about the same exchange rate. In fact, the $100 pack is the least efficient among the $15+ packs, at least in USD. 10 free rolls is still going to be worth around $25 in plumules.
>>1307578
I am not factoring in the bonus rolls for launch gifts. So far they've given 10 for Psyche and Fina release login events. The prism store is stated to refresh every month for 5 more. Those are the only non-paid sources I'm considering since it appears that they are on a monthly refresh.
>>1307665
When did I ever mention or imply easy banner gets? My original message is about the actual price of the gacha skin assuming someone gets it through the guarantee. You cannot get any unluckier than that.