>>971316
Not surprised to see merchandising barely grow. Cover building infrastructure in the US already shows how important the NA market is to the company. Once they have in place, as long as they can weather the tariffs and maybe see the US implement some sort of de minimis exemption back again, Cover can be in a nice spot for the future. Solving Europe would be good too, in general. NA is probably easier to solve though, even with how on-and-off the US is being with trade policies.
>Merch
Well if merch revenue is about the same, but merch cost increases by about 50%, that's definitely going to hurt gross margins (page 6 for revenue, page 7 for manufacturing costs).
>TCG
While there is the game/tournament component of it, it's still oshi merch. Building an oshi deck, even if it's not meta is a thing. Also, gambling just to get that signed oshi card. Of the graduates, I believe only Mumei, Shion, and Chloe have cards viable for deck-building. Ame has her Spot card, but those cards are ancillary. Missing viable decks for Aqua, Ame, Gura, and Fauna all represent lost merch revenue.
>Streaming revenue TL;DR
SCs revenue from holomems-only make up around 10% of total streaming revenue. While some of the remaining might include Stars, it might peak around 2%. This means that the remaining 88% comes from ads, memberships, SCs during members' streams, and other platforms.
>Streaming revenue
Just some napkin math, attached is just a basic streaming revenue/vtubers chart. Between Q3 2025 and Q2 2026, Cover lost 5 holomems. Cover has averaged between 20-30 million yen per vtuber from streaming revenue each quarter. Which is at least 86MM yen per vtuber each year.
>hololive SCs YTD (June) 2025
https://i.warosu.org/data/vt/img/1018/01/1751344740241576.png
An anon had this put together. June 2025 would be the end of Q1 2026. So the sum of Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 is 3,458,758 USD (using ChatGPT to parse). Avg USD to Yen rate was about 148.06, so about 512,103,709.48 yen. So total SCs received by holomems were about 10.73% of total streaming revenue. Several holomems do not have SCs enabled every stream because museums and albums. It also doesn't consider SCs from Stars.
Between these two quarters, there was an average 87.5 vtubers [(89+86)/2]. 512,103,709.48/87.5 = 5,852,613.82. Then divide this by 2, which results to about 2,926,306.91 SC in yen per vtuber each quarter. This about $19,000.
>Cover Corp October SCs
https://i.warosu.org/data/vt/img/1064/58/1762642673004215.png
A different anon produced this chart.
Per ChatGPT, that's a total $347,940 USD. Of this $43,606 was from various Stars. You can also see how 9 holos do not have SCs enabled or did not stream (Okayu). That's about 10.5% of Cover's vtubers (they're all pretty notable for SC earnings). This meant that Stars made up about 12.53% of total SC revenue received by Cover Corp in October. hololyzer counted StarsEN member Ruze's birthday for October. I don't know if that needs to be compensated for given that this was also the b-day month for Korone, Fubuki, Luna, Ollie, and GG.
In yen, $347,940 USD is about 52,570,255 Yen at 151.09 yen per USD. This is just for October.
>Graduation?
Posting these numbers just for some context. The amounts should represent the 30 days leading up to graduation, which is just a third of a quarter. Shion not included because she graduated April which was not part of the intervals of the videos produced by a different anon.
>Aqua's graduation
https://youtu.be/c68D8J7FrUc?si=bIdRlW1S0-cyZe6-&t=630
In 30 days, she accumulated 60MM+ in SCs
>Ame's graduation
https://youtu.be/c68D8J7FrUc?si=v9c9GIdU0UmcsVva&t=642
In 30 days, she accumulated around 18-19MM in SCs.
>Fauna
https://youtu.be/c68D8J7FrUc?si=bhrbx39h0if1KyHa&t=677
She had around 16-17MM in SCs
>Chloe
https://youtu.be/c68D8J7FrUc?si=zpnUzH4xAMPLWO8k&t=685
About 28-29MM
>Mumei
https://youtu.be/l-P4YuRdZNI?si=D03nnnN3RvADZWv9&t=407
About 13-14MM
>Gura
https://youtu.be/l-P4YuRdZNI?si=IKu937JPGmAdXkt6&t=409
9MM+
>Note
Reminder, it was estimated that each vtuber earned Cover about 2,926,306.91 yen in SC revenue per quarter or a bit less than 1MM yen each month. So when watching those SC videos. Anyone right of the 1MM line is earning above the average. Currently that's about $6,618.57.