>>40825
Instead of invading Poland, Hitler just continued pressuring Poland for concessions according to a doctrine seeking to avoid war with the West. Hitler waited until Stalin invaded Finland, and then offered to let Finland join the Axis in exchange for allowing the Third Reich to annex all of the Soviet Union not claimed by Finland (Hitler actively avoids conflict with the Allies and yet will only accept Soviet unconditional surrender (allowing him to annex ALL of the Soviet Union except for those territories claimed by Finland)? In this scenario there is no real justification for the Allies or USA to attack the Third Reich), what would have happened until 1961?
### Alternate History Timeline: 1939–1961
This scenario posits a highly speculative chain of events where Adolf Hitler prioritizes avoiding conflict with the Western Allies (Britain, France, and later the United States) while pursuing aggressive anti-Communist expansion eastward. By not invading Poland militarily and instead using diplomatic pressure for territorial concessions (e.g., Danzig and an extraterritorial corridor), Germany maintains a fragile peace with the West. The trigger for action comes with the Soviet invasion of Finland in November 1939, allowing Hitler to frame German intervention as a defensive crusade against Bolshevism. This leads to a German-Finnish alliance and a war against the Soviet Union, with Germany demanding unconditional surrender and annexing nearly all Soviet territory except for Finnish-claimed regions like Karelia and Petsamo.
Key assumptions based on historical plausibilities:
- The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (August 1939) still occurs, but Germany breaks it opportunistically without Western repercussions.
- Poland, under pressure and sharing anti-Soviet sentiments, agrees to a non-aggression pact or limited alliance with Germany, allowing troop transit but retaining independence. This avoids triggering British and French guarantees, which were specifically against German aggression.
- The Western Allies remain neutral, viewing the conflict as an internal Eastern European affair with no direct threat to their interests. The U.S. stays isolationist longer.
- Japan focuses on its war in China and Southeast Asia, not directly joining the Eastern Front, to align with the scenario's focus on German annexation of the entire USSR (minus Finnish claims).
- Germany's full military resources are concentrated eastward, without distractions from Western campaigns, African theaters, or Atlantic submarine warfare.
- Outcomes draw from historical analyses suggesting that without a two-front war, Germany could achieve a decisive victory over the USSR, though unconditional surrender and full annexation would strain logistics and lead to long-term instability.
#### 1939–1940: Diplomatic Maneuvering and the Spark of War
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September–October 1939: Germany demands concessions from Poland without invasion. Intense negotiations result in Poland ceding Danzig and allowing a German-controlled corridor to East Prussia in exchange for guarantees against Soviet aggression. Britain and France protest but do not declare war, as no military violation occurs. The Soviet Union, per the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, occupies eastern Poland (now "Western Ukraine/Belarus") without resistance from Germany, further alienating Poland and pushing it toward Berlin for protection.
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November 1939–March 1940: Stalin launches the Winter War against Finland. The Red Army's poor performance exposes Soviet weaknesses (e.g., purges, outdated tactics). Hitler seizes the opportunity, offering Finland Axis membership in exchange for ceding claims on Soviet territory post-victory. Finland, desperate and historically anti-Soviet, accepts. Germany declares war on the USSR in February 1940, framing it as "liberation from Bolshevism" to aid Finland. Western opinion is divided; some sympathize with Finland, but no intervention occurs.
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Spring 1940: German forces, staging through cooperative Poland and East Prussia, launch Operation Oststurm (a fictional analog to Barbarossa but earlier and more focused). With no Western front, Germany deploys ~3.5 million troops, full Luftwaffe support, and superior logistics. Initial advances capture the Baltics and push toward Leningrad and Moscow by summer. Finland retakes lost territories and advances into Karelia.
#### 1940–1943: The Eastern War and Soviet Collapse
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1940–1941: Germany avoids historical diversions (no invasion of France, Norway, or the Balkans). Full industrial output focuses on tanks, aircraft, and fuel stockpiles. The Wehrmacht captures Kiev, Minsk, and Smolensk rapidly. Without Lend-Lease aid (which historically began in 1941 via U.S./British involvement), the USSR struggles with supply shortages. Stalin's purges and Winter War losses compound issues; partisan warfare emerges but is suppressed brutally.
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Winter 1941–1942: German forces besiege Leningrad and reach Moscow's outskirts. Harsh weather stalls advances, but with no British bombing or African drain, Germany reinforces faster. Finland secures its northern front. Japan, emboldened but focused southward, launches Pearl Harbor (December 1941) independently, drawing the U.S. into a separate Pacific War but keeping America out of Europe.
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1942–1943: Renewed offensives capture Moscow (spring 1942) and Stalingrad (fall 1942). Stalin flees to the Urals; internal Soviet chaos leads to defections (e.g., Ukrainian and Baltic nationalists collaborate). By mid-1943, German forces push to the Volga and Urals, with Finland claiming eastern Karelia. Exhausted and isolated, the USSR sues for peace, but Hitler rejects anything short of unconditional surrender. Stalin is captured or killed in a coup; the Red Army fragments. Germany occupies the entirety of European Russia, Ukraine, the Caucasus, and pushes into Siberia with minimal resistance, annexing all territories except Finnish claims.
| Key Military Factors in German Victory | Historical WWII (with Two Fronts) | This Scenario (Eastern Focus Only) |
|---------------------------------------|-----------------------------------|------------------------------------|
| Troop Deployment | ~3 million on East (1941), divided later | ~4 million fully committed, no reserves needed West |
| Air Superiority | Luftwaffe split (Battle of Britain, Mediterranean) | Full 5,000+ aircraft dominate skies, no Allied bombing |
| Logistics/Fuel | Strained by multi-theater war | Abundant, with early capture of Caucasus oil |
| Soviet Aid | $11B+ Lend-Lease (trucks, food, planes) | None; USSR isolated |
| Casualties | 5M+ German total | ~2–3M, mostly East; quicker war reduces attrition |
#### 1943–1945: Consolidation and the New Order
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1943–1944: Germany establishes Reichskommissariats across the former USSR (e.g., Ostland, Ukraine, Moskowien, Kaukasus). Generalplan Ost unfolds: Mass deportations, enslavement, and genocide of Slavs, Jews, and other "undesirables" to make way for German settlers. Finland annexes Karelia and Petsamo, becoming a satellite. Poland gains minor eastern territories but becomes economically dependent on Germany. Western Allies condemn atrocities but remain neutral, focusing on rearmament.
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1944–1945: With vast resources (Siberian minerals, Ukrainian grain, Baku oil), Germany's economy surges. Hitler declares the "Thousand-Year Reich" secure. The U.S., victorious in the Pacific by 1945 (atomic bombs on Japan), turns isolationist eyes toward Europe but avoids confrontation. No Holocaust in Western Europe, but Eastern extermination camps process millions.
#### 1945–1956: Post-Hitler Reich and Emerging Cold War
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1945–1949: Hitler, without the stress of a global war, lives until ~1950 (age 61). Succession goes to Hermann Göring (or Heinrich Himmler in a power struggle), who moderates some racial policies for pragmatic rule but maintains authoritarian control. Partisan uprisings in the East are crushed with SS brutality, but overextension breeds corruption and inefficiency.
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1950s: Nuclear arms race begins. Germany, with captured Soviet scientists and uranium from occupied territories, tests its first atomic bomb ~1948 (earlier than historical U.S. due to focused resources and no sabotage). The U.S. follows in 1949 (Manhattan Project delayed but spurred by German aggression). Britain and France develop nukes independently by mid-1950s. A "Cold War" emerges: The Greater German Reich (spanning from the Rhine to Vladivostok) vs. a Western bloc (U.S., UK, France, Commonwealth). Proxy conflicts arise in the Middle East and Africa over colonies and resources.
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Economic/Technological Developments: Germany leads in rocketry (V-2 evolves into ICBMs) and jet aircraft. By 1956, a "Space Race" sees Germany launch the first satellite (~1955, ahead of Sputnik). Living standards rise in core Germany but plummet in occupied East due to exploitation. The U.S. enjoys prosperity from Pacific victory but faces espionage and ideological threats.
#### 1956–1961: Tensions and Instability
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Late 1950s: Internal Reich cracks appear—economic strain from governing a continent-sized empire, SS purges, and Slavic resistance movements. Göring's successor (perhaps Albert Speer) pushes technocratic reforms, but racial ideology hampers integration. The West forms NATO-like alliances, with U.S. bases in Britain and France.
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1960–1961: A Berlin Crisis analog erupts over divided Poland or Baltic access, but nukes deter escalation. Germany lands on the Moon first (~1960), boosting propaganda. The U.S. responds with Apollo-like programs. Global decolonization accelerates, with Germany supporting anti-Western insurgents in Asia/Africa. By 1961, the world is bipolar: A dystopian Nazi superstate (population ~500M, vast resources but morally bankrupt) versus a democratic West (innovative but wary). No major wars, but espionage, arms buildups, and cultural clashes define the era.
This outcome represents a darker world, with genocides on an even larger scale (potentially 50M+ deaths in the East) and delayed global progress in human rights. However, the Reich's overreach could sow seeds for collapse beyond 1961.