>>1724486
>just with GTA IV numbers they can make a profit
That's not how it works. The "budget" you often see companies throw out there for a film or a game only comprises the
development costs. It doesn't in any way account for things like marketing and licensing, which is on average almost equal to the budget (Making the total $4 billion in this case). But for media that is a "cultural milestone", that M&L budget is actually more in line with anywhere from 2-4 times the game's development budget (Meaning, $6-10 billion). However let's go with the conservative number and assume that R* and T2 only spent the $4 billion. 25 million people buying the game isn't going to cut it, not even for $2 billion. First of all, you have to account for things like retail costs of shipping the retail version of the game and putting in people's hands, which eat anywhere from 25%-50% of the actual MSRP. In addition to that, even if you "
cut out the middle man" and release the game digitally, R* is still only going to be seeing 20%-30% of that money already taken right off the top to pay Sony and M$' fees for using their store. Meaning that at the end of the day, the "actual" money R* and T2 will be seeing, if they launch the game at $100, would be closer to $50-$75. But let's give them the benefit of the doubt and assume that they're making a $75 profit on every copy of the game sold.
Just to cover the game's development budget, they would need to sell at least 27 million copies. For reference, it took GTA5 six weeks to sell that much. "Easy", you may think but remember that GTA6 would need to sell
TWICE that amount. By the time GTA5 sold 45 million a year later, two more consoles had become available (
Which comprised an addition 10 million just for the "Next gen" editions). And it didn't pass the 54 million mark until almost two years after launch, with the addition of the PC version. That extra 130 million (
Now 160 million, as was announced back in March) you see in that picture was then the result of GTA5 being practically the
ONLY crime sandbox game during the entire eighth and even ninth console generation (
With the sole exception of probably Yakuza), and the game literally being given away for free on numerous occasions and people's Corona-chan binging from having literally nothing else to do for a year.
Let's go back to GTA4 for a moment as I want to hit something home. GTA4 had much stiffer competition as it came out during the time when GTASA was still well within people's minds, as well as dealing with similar series like Saints Row, Driver, The Godfather, Mafia, and The Getaway; singular games like Wheelman and Sleeping Dogs; "other" sandbox games with everything from NFS to Crackdown; and all on top of having to compete with
their very own company who was releasing Midnight Club, L.A. Noire, and Red Dead Redemption. And then GTA5 came out and was riding on the expectations built up by all those games. Meanwhile, what GTA6 does to compete with? You "could" point to games like Cyberpunk and the upcoming Neverness To Everness but that's really it. Meaning that R* and T2 are releasing GTA6 in market with zero competition. And when you don't have anyone to compete with, what do you think the quality of the game will be?
Don't misunderstand me. I have no doubt in my mind about the very fact that GTA6 will sell anywhere from 20-30 million copies within a few months. But that being said, that won't be enough. They need this game to sell 50 million overnight, and that's never going to happen. And even if you bring up how GTAO2 will be another source of revenue R* and T2 (
Which I will admit that I haven't discussed until now), you're not accounting for the costs related to all of that. Live service games are fucking expensive, just ask companies like SE who recently announced the end of two decade old live service games because they became to expensive and complicate to maintain. Despite current GTAO bringing an estimated $500 million annually, how much of that money is being spent
JUST on maintaining the damn game? Not even getting into costs to constantly update it and add new content. GTAO2 is starting with practically a clean slate, meaning that both it and the main game that is GTA6 will have to hit the ground running and become the most successful video game the world has ever seen in the span of a few months.
TL;DR, GTA6 is a game that too big to
NOT fail.