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Russo-Ukrainian War #32 - Early Anniversary Edition - anon.cafe is kill Strelok 01/11/2024 (Thu) 22:16:29 No. 1473 >>1474 >>1475 >>1487
The site's going down but the war is still hot! Recap for the mouth-breathers who can't read threads not on the first page: >Ukraine has been getting their ass pounded in Avdiivka >Russians are getting their ass spanked while doing the pounding and they don't like it >Ukraine tried screamed "FUCK YOU" at Belgorod to make Russia stop fucking their ass >Russia told Ukraine "GET YOUR ASS BACK HERE!" and started lobbing North Korean ballistic missiles (dubbed "Kimskanders") at Ukraine's military bases near civilian centers in retaliation, fucking up the civilian centers in the process >Ukraine screamed they were coming and forced conscription of women and children and started handing out papers to expats >People are expecting Avdiivka to fall >That turns on the Russians and they will either a massive push in Zaporizhia or re-invade Kharkiv while making Ukraine retreat back to their Kievan leather club two cities down >You are here Vid related. Thread theme.
>>1473 (OP) >forced conscription of women and children Not to defend them, but that bit does not check out. Currently their big plan is to mobilize another 500.000 people, but it looks like that is the target number for the whole of 2024, with more of them mobilized in the first few months than in latter months. In addition, they ordered some 50.000 uniforms for women specifically, but there are no news about forcing females to march to the front (yet). In addition, there was a case of a barely 18 boy from an orphanage who lost his life on the frontline, but he was a volunteer. Of course, it is quite likely that he was fed an unhealthy diet of propaganda, but that is quite a normal affair in a war. Bonus: an Abrams was spotted close to the frontline, maybe we will see them in actual combat soon.
>>1473 (OP) >The site's going down Qrd? Also, where will streloks migrate to if cafe goes tits up?
>>1475 It's in the header. >Where will anons go? Not sleepychan, that's for sure. I'll go suck it up and use cakekike's site before giving that admin a single (You).
>>1475 I'll probably check in on zzz/k/ but to be honest I'm tired of how petty and stupid this board has gotten. Weapons discussion is borderline non-existent here anymore anyway, I talk more about guns with the people I shoot with every month than I do here in 3 months.
>>1477 The bunker as far as I know was made by one of the previous volunteers that left this site after having disagreements with the admin so if you're fine with it then sure. >>1476 You are insane but you do you. Have fun there.
>>1474 >Bonus: an Abrams was spotted close to the frontline, maybe we will see them in actual combat soon. The salt of one of those blowing up will be pretty good.
>>1476 There are a bunch of bunkers aside from sleepychan and kikechan, anonkun, why not go to /sp/, smugloli or plw?
>>1480 >/sp/ I'm already there. >smugloli I'm already there and they have made it clear on numerous occasions that they will not accept a /k/ board unless all current event threads are removed. >PLW I don't mind the admins there but the userbase is insufferable and would be constantly raiding a /k/ board.
>>1481 >plw >raiding anything The fuck are you talking about?
>>1481 The thing with PLW is I don't know if Loleron is still there and if he's willing to create more boards there. I'm also starting to think this is more suited in the meta thread than here.
>>1474 Why haven't the Abrams been committed to battle yet? Is it possible the Americans are putting pressure on the Ukrainians to not lose them like with the Leopard 2 and Chally 2? >>1477 I really miss 8chan's /k/ and I especially miss the Hungarian rifle grenade autist. >>1480 The administration on endchan is pretty good if someone wants to make a board there.
>>1483 He's still there. You can catch him either in the meta thread or his seasonal anime CyTube streams.
>>1481 >userbase is insufferable and would be constantly raiding a /k/ board What? There's fewer people there than here and there has never been raid threads there. If anything they get raided because loleron has all but abandoned the site outside of his shitty streams. Otherwise the handful of regular users don't seem bad to me.
>>1473 (OP) I am going to have some hearty chuckles if after all the trash talk, 8moe/k/ ends up being the most trafficked one.
>>1484 >Why haven't the Abrams been committed to battle yet? According to HistoryLegends, the Ukrainians were bitching and moaning that the tanks were gutted from the inside-out so they're basically just artillery pieces on tank tracks. One of the tanks allegedly didn't even have its radio set any more and at least 5 from the first batch had to be scrapped for repair parts for the others because they were in such poor condition.
>>1488 Are the US being that jewish when they have a literal parking lot of tanks to send to Ukraine?
>>1489 The Biden admin has proven itself incompetent at every corner when it comes to anything other than bussing in illegals, so it wouldn't surprise me. It also wouldn't surprise me if it was some contractor inbetween or some Ukrainian general who scrapped them for cash. It honestly wouldn't even surprise me if Ukraine was just outright lying at this point. However, I've seen enough incompetence in the government in recent years that I don't doubt it was option 1.
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Russians are apparently droning buildings in Nikopol (the town across the river from the NPP).
>>1484 >I really miss 8chan's /k/ and I especially miss the Hungarian rifle grenade autist. Anon, I have been there since day one, and I post on a nearly daily basis.
>>1476 >>1477 Well, I'm gonna miss you guys, I'll probably stop going to image boards all together, maybe just occasionally browse trough /fit/,/sci/,/tv/ and /ic/ on cuckchan.
>>1493 It's ok bruh, you'll still have me
>>1474 >but there are no news about forcing females to march to the front No need, in post-Soviet Ukraine front march to them. >>1492 post rifle grenades or gtfo I don't make the rules >>1484 >I really miss 8chan's /k/ >>1493 >I'll probably stop going to image boards all together A recurring thought/observation: seems the age of image boards is coming to a close. I'm not writing a eulogy here as I'm sure chans will be around, much like "forums" off their peak in late 90s/00s, just regressing back to their humble obscure beginnings. Maybe it's for the better.
>>1493 >>1495 You can always shitpost with me: >>60490
>>1493 Please don't go Serb fren.
>>1494 :3 >>1495 >recurring thought/observation: seems the age of image boards is coming to a close So what's the next step? I doubt something like Telegram can fill such a niche that image boards can. 8chan might have had its flaws but goddam 8/k/ was comfy. >>1498 I'll probably hang around untill light is switched off at this place. After that...well... it's been honor shitposting with you anons.
It looks like there is some kind of deal going on between UK and Ukraine to put British soldiers in Ukraine.
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>>1499 >So what's the next step? Like I said, too early for a eulogy, chans will be around. I'll probably take up >>1496 on his offer and see how that goes. >8chan might have had its flaws but goddam 8/k/ was comfy. Chans were comfy while irrelevant in the grand scheme of things, then from c. 2016 (US election) and things like >>59438 becoming trendy it got a little too real to ignore for the powers that be also a lot of boomers have retired or died since. Centrally hosted websites will always buckle under that kind of pressure, free speech has to be decentralized/distributed by nature and frankly image boards were never designed for that in the first place.
Switzerland has agreed to host a peace summit at the request of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. https://8chan.moe/news/res/191.html 'I confirmed that Switzerland is ready to organize the conference,' said Swiss President Viola Amherd >The leader of Ukraine arrived in Bern on Jan. 15 to meet with the country’s leaders and to attend the World Economic Forum’s gathering in Davos. His country has been at war with Russia since late February of 2022. >“I confirmed that Switzerland is ready to organize the conference,” said Swiss President Viola Amherd, per The Daily Mail. “We agreed that the details of the further approach will be looked into in depth in order to make this peace process a success.” >Amherd said Switzerland will “fight for long-lasting and just peace in Ukraine.” >“We would want the countries of the global south to be present, for sure, we would want China to be involved,” she said. >At the press conference, Zelensky said he wants “all countries that respect [Ukraine’s] sovereignty and territorial integrity” to be involved in the gathering when asked if Russian officials would be invited to the summit. >“We would like the Global South to be present,” he said, adding that he would like China to be involved, per Barron’s. “It is important for us to show that the whole world is against Russia's aggression, and the whole world is for a just peace.” >In a separate statement on X, Zelensky vowed to “discuss the return of Ukrainian children stolen by Russia, sanctions, ways to use frozen Russian assets, humanitarian mine clearing, financial assistance, and recovery.” >“I believe that Switzerland's participation in the Peace Formula, as well as its relevant experience, can help bring our vision of just peace closer,” he wrote. >As the second anniversary of the Ukraine-Russia conflict approaches, Zelensky is hoping to reignite support for his country. He promised that at least one million drones would be built and predicted the increased use of F-16 fighter jets during his New Year’s address. >“Next year, the enemy will feel the wrath of domestic production,” he said, per the BBC. >According to Foreign Affairs, “both Moscow and Kyiv are in a race to rebuild offensive combat power… While the first half of 2024 may bring few changes in control of Ukrainian territory, the materiel, personnel training, and casualties that each side accrues in the next few months will determine the long-term trajectory of the conflict.” >“The West in fact faces a crucial choice right now: support Ukraine so that its leaders can defend their territory and prepare for a 2025 offensive or cede an irrecoverable advantage to Russia,” the publication noted. >The United States Department of Defense announced on Dec. 27 it would supply Ukraine with a new security assistance package valued at approximately $250 million. >“The package includes air defense capabilities, artillery and antitank weapons and other equipment to help Ukraine in its continued fight to counter Russia's unprovoked invasion,” the D.O.D. stated in a press release. “The latest round of assistance marks the 54th drawdown of military equipment for Ukraine from DOD inventories since August 2021.”
>>1503 >2025 offensive lol
>>1503 >“We would want the countries of the global south to be present, for sure eh? Other than potential access to grain gibs, why would the browns care?
>>1505 An attempted onboarding by the third worldists of everyone, south of the equator, onto a coalition against the western hegemony.
>>1505 They want bantus to repopulate Ukraine and give them easier access to Poland.
>>1503 Is russia invited or is it just like last time? Like, I dont think negotiations are possible without both sides of the conflict. >>1507 Poles are already niggers .
>>1505 The global south is "upset" with Russia, but they're so angry at the Western overreaction that fucked up global trade that they've for all intents and purposes sided with Russia. Document leaks are suggesting Germany is preparing for WWIII right now haven't read the articles but that's what the headlines say so this is probably part of NATO consolidation to force countries to say "you're with us or against us." >>1508 Russia is explicitly not invited, so it's all meaningless. Ukraine is begging to suck Chinese dick because they need that motor industry back, but I doubt China will do much more than send an official delegation in order to humiliate Ukraine/Switzerland when they push the issue.
>>1509 >Russia is explicitly not invited lol wut? >The Swiss president underlined that the country will 'fight for long-lasting and just peace in Ukraine.' >Zelensky added: 'We are open to all countries that respect our sovereignty and territorial integrity at the peace summit.' >It is understood that Russia will not be invited to the conference. lmao, another circlejerk for gibs - business as usual. for a second I was worried about the global fuel supply for happening threads
>>1503 >>1508 >>1509 >peace summit to end a war >one of the two belligerents in said war is forbidden to come Why would anyone show up to this?
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>Russians very likely lost an A-50 AWACS over the Black Sea, either to friendly fire or Ukrainan SAM, IL-22 is confirmed to be damaged but limped back home. >Gonzalo Lira finally managed to taunt Ukrainians enough and got suicided by Ukrainan intelligence agents while in his cell. >Russians allegedly used around 2-3 million domestic artillery shells in 2023, another 1 million shells has been allegedly purchased from Norks >Positional battles continue around the front line, small gains on both sides, Russians seem to be fairing slightly better because UAF in still recovering from the failed Summer offensive. Either way,no side is able to wrestle clear advantage. >France is transferring another 40 SCALP long range cruise missiles to Ukraine >There has been increased talk about F16 batch being donated to Ukraine, some Ukrainan pilots already went trough F16 training. >Both sides are proping up their domestic military production in anticipation of a prolonged war.
>>1503 >We would like the Global South to be present "Global South" is an almost derogatory term. It's one step away from "the Poverty Belt". There's no way China would attend a summit except as a spoiler. >prepare for a 2025 offensive or cede an irrecoverable advantage to Russia He once again proves how he's assblasted that Israel is taking all the attention and funds away from his black hole of a nation as the world realigns to make it irrelevant. If the ruling party changes in America, peace talks will open almost immediately. If he bites the hand that feeds him and refuses to play along with whatever deal is made between the US and Russia, he'll be thrown in a shredder like a male chick.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sB943eRENs
[Embed]
Neat footage of a T-90 versus 2 Bradleys, long video and pretty intense to watch. T-90 fails to hit the IFVs, 25mm auto cannons fail to penetrate armor but manage to disable the tank, crew allegedly survived
>>1474 > barely 18 boy from an orphanage who lost his life on the frontline, but he was a volunteer. Of course, it is quite likely that he was fed an unhealthy diet of propaganda, but that is quite a normal affair in a war. Or fed an unhealthy diet of orphanage food and figured he may live longer on the frontline, or at least will die with full stomach? >>1489 >>1490 Either or both. Who knows? Goods were send from someone who had a golden opportunity to scrap old stuff at full price, to someone who has a habit of selling missiles on black market in war time. It would be surprising if shit like that did not happen.
>>1513 >Schumer will not act to secure US border until GOP funds Ukraine war Biden is starting to pay lip service to securing the border, but it's just election year bullshit- It would be funny if he fired that Sephardi "Cuban" guy to sell the lie. We've all seen how this shit typically plays out, I'd put money on Ukraine gibs going through and zero meaningful border security. The corporate class and the defense industry are going to get exactly what they want.
>>1517 Actually it gets even better. Mexico's president is demanding American citizenship for 10 million illegals, an end to the Cuban blockade, an end to Venezuelan sanctions, and a $20 billion dollar bribe in exchange for dealing with the illegal immigrant problem on their side of the border. The Biden admin's response was "sounds good!"
The OP is lowkey retarded, I see
So for the /k/ommandos who are interested in the war in Ukraine but who have been unable to find out much because of the shills that took over /k/ in 2022, what are some good sources of information to get caught up on the last 3 years of war?
>>12282 Unironically the kiwifarms threads for both the Ukrainian and Russian side are decent for getting both perspectives
>>12288 That's a good start, although I was hoping for a neutral third party source rather than just getting both biased perspectives.
>>12289 >Neutral third party perspectives Man I fucking wish. Like 90% of the news that comes out is from either state media or social media; the closest thing to a neutral third party perspective is mutual skepticism of (potentially) biased sources.
>>12744 >the closest thing to a neutral third party perspective is mutual skepticism of (potentially) biased source Is there something like that? Like some site that aggregates claims from both sides and tries to verify them using open source information?
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>>12289 >>12755 >Is there something like that? Like some site that aggregates claims from both sides and tries to verify them using open source information? Not that I know of. There's a glut of resources for reports from the Ukrainian side but not nearly as many for the Russian side and while both of them tend to be biased there are many more reputable sources for information (especially in English) from the Ukranian side. For example, obviously the Bongistan MoD has its own biases but they also have a good reputation for putting out the facts as they stand with minimal drama while third-party sources from the Russian side are generally "trust me bro" randoms on social media and/or Kremlin cocksleeves like RT and Sputnik.
>>12755 >Is there something like that https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates This mostly fits the bill
>>12790 lol >>12791 double lol Both of these have proven to be either grossly incompetent, or just trying to push an agenda. Not any sort od valid source of info.
>>12790 >while both of them tend to be biased there are many more reputable sources for information (especially in English) from the Ukranian side. The frustrating thing is that seeing past those biases would be much easier if I had was already up to date on what is going on. As it stands figuring out what is going on purely from the biased sources is really difficult. >>12791 I read some of their stuff a few days ago while trying to catch up when I realized 4chan probably isn't coming back for a long time, and I got the distinct impression that the ISW isn't a very neutral source at all, and some of the things they said didn't gel with what little I think I've pieced together so far. Like I saw them claim that if Ukraine keeps being provided with aid that they can keep launching offensives, and that eventually one will manage to make a breakthrough, restore maneuver, and win the war for them. That doesn't really line up with what I've been able to gather elsewhere for a number of reasons.
>>12806 One English source who is nominally pro-Ukraine, but otherwise not afraid to rail against other pro-Ukrainians for their bullshit is a Youtuber called WillyOAM. It's actually pretty sad to consider that a random nobody on Youtube has better analytical capabilities than a supposed think-tank and a literal intel agency.
>>12809 >WillyOAM I'll check him out, I also noticed there are some things linked in the previous russo-ukraine war thread and earlier in this one that I am going to investigate as possible sources of information.
>>12744 Pretty much this. The mark of good intelligence is being able to read between the lines and correlate information from a wide verity of sources. There are some good OSINT communities that provide a wealth of information but one must remember to separate your personal biases and desires in the pursuit of raw information.
>>12896 It's also a sign of intelligence to check and make sure that hard work is actually necessary before starting in on a difficult task. >There are some good OSINT communities that provide a wealth of information Mind pointing me towards some?
Not that guy, but you'll have to sift through stuff and decide for yourself what level of bias you can handle. Personally, I can't fucking stand fake analysts like ISW and prefer to just judge what's happening by the news from the front, so I like to check some of the daily map aggregators on Youtube to see changes and compare them with the footage to see the magnitude of what's going on.
>>13203 Can you suggest some map aggregators and good sources of footage from the front? I can work with that level of information too. Also describing ISW as being fake analysts feels pretty apt from the few articles of theirs I read.
>>12805 >UK based update lmao worthless trash, discarded. >sars no very good sars nope :)
>>13205 For good fresh sources of footage, you have to go to Telegram. Though it's enough to have one or two good channels per side because a lot of them repost footage. For map updates, Suriyak is the de-facto most accurate mapper, followed by Deep State. Deep State is more convenient because the interface allows for straight comparison between days, while Suriyak just colors the map each day. If you want a Youtuber to walk you through the situation, Military Summary for instance is a Russian tinted one while Denys Davydov is a Ukrainian tinted one. There's others of course, you can probably find them yourself.
So do what do you guys think about the strategic situation in the war currently for both sides? Also what do you think victory would look like for each of them, and how are they going about trying to achieve it?
>>13335 >ukraine Seems like they are just trying to delay and do small counterattacks wherever they can mostly sticking to the drone from what I can tell. They want everything back or if I were them just give the two separatist regions up and immediately start recovering. Mostly trying to a diplomatic angle but with the current US administration it’s an extremely hard sell >Russia Seems to want everyone to think they’re trying to negotiate while simultaneously ignoring everything. If Russia wants to win in some capacity I would just stop now and take what you have and quit trying to take everything. They’re tactics are not what I would call smart manpower wise and I’ve seen some dissent but most come ukie sources so grain of salt with that. Keep in my mind that this is all I’ve been able to really see so I could be entirely wrong
>>13342 >their Fuck I can’t into grammar anymore
>>13335 I wont speak to victory conditions much because I think alot can change, but generally it seems like Russia will probably end up eating a chunk out of Ukraine and Ukraine will be reduced to a buffer state no matter what they want >Russia has been memed pretty hard by the US using Ukrainians as effective speedbumps for them by supplying them with gear. The results have been defanging the Russian military from realistically being able to touch Europe, not that I think they had plans for that any time soon anyways. Regardless of how their material has been depleted, Russia has shifted into the infinite manpower glitch strategy and are just employing random brown people to run into machinegun fire. This isnt the own you may think it is, as this basically means Russia can stay in the fight for however long they like without really feeling the negatives of it anymore, although aggressive breakthroughs probably wont happen as much with these infinite 3rd worlders they are employing. The war is really theirs to win, as long as they want to be there. Ukraine cant really push them out, and them simply being there gives them alot of negotiating power with the puppetmasters of Ukraine. In the end they will probably get the W, pyrrhic or not >Ukraine not much to say other than they are fucked no matter what. They dont have a realistic win-state outside of a peace deal being struck and Russia simply stopping their slow advance. Their Kursk offensive is a meme performed by pseudo-rogue elements of their military that are running parts of it like private warbands, and strategically is a waste of time. The real major problem for them is manpower. As stated above, Russia has activated the infinite manpower glitch meanwhile Ukraine cant afford any of its losses, mercenaries or not. Furthermore, even if Ukraine somehow "won" they are demographically fucked for the next couple hundred years. They will need to avoid conflict for several hundred years and play everything smart if they every want Ukraine to be filled with ethnic(Russians with a different name lmao) Ukrainians of a healthy number again. Best thing for them now, despite them not wanting this, would be to strike up a peace deal and cool off for a bit and make some smart decisions. They also probably should sack Zelensky, but I think foreign entities will take care of him sooner than later, the outlook is grim for him I think Note that I say all of this couched in the firm opinion that I wish this entire conflict didnt happen. Not to say that I dont think some aspects of it were justified, there are wider geopolitical games at play here that forced Russia's hand, but I wish that the conflict ended only a couple weeks in vs what we have now which is a slow grinding war that is taking the lives of to many brothers. We are WELL past the point that we should be sueing for peace. Alas, the US wants to deplete Russia's military supplies
>>13352 Not trying to argue about ethnicity a lot but I can see a difference in the two since this war started. I use the US and UK as an example because both speak English but their own forms of it. Both can understand each other but have different dialects were certain stuff just doesn’t translate. It’s helped me understand why they don’t see each other as, in lack of better words, brothers. Sorry for the tangent but I thought I’d just mention it. Some YouTubers from Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine showed me this difference and if you want look at them I’ll gladly give some links
>>13358 Nah I know what you mean anon, I just find it ridiculous on the basis of history. Ukraine hasnt been its own country for long and I think the sentiment is largely astroturfed even over there. The Ukraine has historically been just another region with Russia for virtually all of history. The difference between the two I'm sure is as significant as southerners vs yankees in the US where there is certainly a difference, but imo it's still largely a meme difference. Although I reckon we could probably go back and forth on this and never truly see each other point so we could just agree to disagree on it, especially when I know plenty of actual Ukrainians would disagree with me till they are blue in the face. Historically I just don't see it lol. It doesn't really matter much now though
>>13360 Ehh history wise it’s kinda of he said she said thing with the Rus and Slavs. While I’m in the camp of the Kievan Rus being the main one which btw isn’t exactly Ukraine and isn’t exactly not like I said bunch of conjecture on it. I just feel like a kinda patriotic version of Russia took the Muscovite view of the Rus and mostly ignore the complicated history of the Rus in general. Like they barely mention Novgorod except when Nevsky is involved. As for the country thing while true it’s more of that he said she said argument. Anyway glad for the calm discussion more than I’ve gotten when I usually have a history talk
>>13360 Regardless of the historicity of the claims I do think most Ukies view themselves as different from Ruskies, but if you ask me they should have been asserting they have a separate cultural identity decades ago. Though I'm sure that was the least of the concern given that the 90's in Eastern Europe can be described charitably as a dumpster fire, that and the fact that up until their color revolution they had governments that were buttbuddies with Russia. But then again there's a reason Russia has been able to claim Luhansk, Donetsk, etc. It's because the people there had legitimate grievances with the Ukrainian government. I don't believe a single goddamn thing that comes out of Russia's mouths about how much everyone there really really really wants to trade one shithole for another shithole, but there is a sentiment there that Kyiv basically abandoned them. Ideally either those parts of Ukraine would have stayed part of Russia to begin with, or the Ukrainian administration could have done more to make Ukraine less of a shithole, but here we are. I am on Ukraine's side in this, as if my opinion matters lmao, and I hope they come out of this shit better than were. I know my history too well to expect that, but I'm gonna hope and pray. War fucking sucks, you know? Politics by other means.
>>13379 I’m mostly just glad the eternal drone of screaming demonbabies is gone and we can just talk normally about the subject at all.
>>13342 >>13352 I broadly agree with both of your assessments, sorry for not going first even though I asked, I just didn't want to poison the possibility of getting a serious answer in case my assessment was stupid, plus talking about the war feels so taboo now. Here's mine. >Ukraine Their manpower issues seem to be reaching critical levels, with many units operating at half strength or less. The offensives they are launching are desperation attacks which they are hoping will make a breakthrough and then somehow be able to maneuver deep into Russian territory and cut their supply lines or capture some objective that will allow them to force Russia to the negotiating table on at least somewhat favorable terms. In reality though barring boots on the ground either from US forces or a coalition of European countries, Ukraine's only hopes for victory are either fantasies about Russia collapsing on its own or a diplomatic solution. None of those are likely, since none of the countries that could help them with boots on the ground actually would, and Ukraine isn't going to agree to any deal that Russia would accept. Ukraine's leadership may simply be complicit in the US and Europe's attempt to use Ukraine as a meat grinder to try to cripple Russia's military, and the win state for Ukraine's leadership is to flee the country after the front collapses and form an impotent government in exile somewhere else, then spend the rest of their lives raking in the cash from speaking engagements at think tanks and conferences. Zelensky might end up being a less charismatic Dalai Lama. >Russia Russia doesn't seem to be having any manpower issues. While they are using manpower rather profligately, it doesn't seem to be nearly to the extent that most western outlets pretend, and their troops aren't conscripts and I still can't find any reliable evidence North Koreans have been deployed to the front. I think at the very most they are losing 2 men for every man Ukraine loses, and that's on the high end, and I think there is a low but non zero chance that Russia is actually losing less men than the Ukrainians. They seem to have stopped launching major mechanized assaults, but I doubt they are anywhere near out of armor. The more likely reason seems to be that the current state of the war is not conducive to large armored offensives. Their strategy seems to be to just keep attacking until they make a breakthrough that Ukraine can't contain one of their breakthroughs, and then send in combined arms units to exploit it. At that point we'll see Russia make massive advances and Ukraine will probably fall completely within a few months. That being said I don't think they are totally opposed to a negotiated peace deal, since the war is ludicrously expensive for them, but Ukraine would need to make a hell of an offer for them to stop when they are probably just a year or two away from annexing all of Ukraine. I don't think Russia's ability to engage on the world stage will actually be in any way damaged by this war, since while they have lost a lot of materiel and men, they can replace those losses, and being literally the only country in the world currently with lots of hands on experience in high intensity conventional peer (let's be real, Ukraine have proven themselves to be a military peer of Russia at this point) war will probably more than outweigh whatever negative effects the war would have on their military for at least a decade or so after the war ends. >>13379 >War fucking sucks, you know? Politics by other means. war rules man, it's politics that suck. African tribal conflicts are the correct way to fight, just you and the boys cruisin in your technical, the wind in your hair, the khat in your teeth. No "operational constructs" just both sides bumping into each other occasionally, mag dumping from the hip, and then running away without hurting anything but trees. The only policy goal you're trying to further is just looking cool and picking up chicks. >>13380 Yeah, sorry for sperging out in the other thread yesterday.
>>13439 I think what annoys me the most with this whole thing is people on Ukraine or Russia’s side are ignoring a lot or just saying outright stupid nonsense about the situation. Like for instance when I hear the Russian aligned view they always talk about Ukraine’s conscription issues claiming Zelenskyy is a dictator by forcing men to fight or how he personally is siphoning funds which I’ve yet to really any solid evidence of.. This a war so conscription is a vital part of their war effort I just feel since most countries moved away from it they see it as bad thing. As for the Ukraine view a lot of the media tends over exaggerate what Ukraine is actually doing or giving the minor victories a lot of coverage and way to much credit as some grand slam thing. IMO Europe needs to fucking do something instead of the usual paperwork and finger wagging it’s clear Russia doesn’t respect them and their only huge armies of Finland and Poland can’t divert troops away from their borders just in case. Central Europe has to get over the scars of ww2 and Western Europe has to quit pussyfooting around at least France can see this more than the others. Just my observation though
>>13442 > claiming Zelenskyy is a dictator by forcing men to fight or how he personally is siphoning funds which I’ve yet to really any solid evidence of I mean I personally think conscription is a form of slavery, and I hadn't even heard the claim that Zelensky is siphoning funds, but I assume all politiicans are corrupt to some degree, so it really wouldn't surprise me. That being said I don't think Zelensky is a worse person than Putin by any means, or even really all that bad by politican standards. I'm a lolbert though, so I take a dim view of all governments and don't really think of any government as being actually good, just different flavors of bad. >This a war so conscription is a vital part of their war effort One government enslaving the peope it's already disarmed people and forcing them to fight to protect it from another government just seems like using one sin to cover for another, and the ethical solution would have been spending the last 8 years assisting all citizens with arming themselves and promulgating building codes that make most structures hardened against attack. >IMO Europe needs to fucking do something I really don't think Europe has much to worry about. Invading Europe would almost certainly drag in the US, and even if it didn't or Russia somehow won that fight and conquered Europe, they'd just end up wrecking the economies of the countries they invaded, which would defeat the purpose even before we get into the costs involved in the occupation. With Ukraine annexed or turned into a puppet state Russia really has nothing to worry about from Europe militarily, so the only countries that have anything to be concerned about would be places like Kazakhstan. I think in the long term a European military buildup is more likely to lead to them fighting each other a few decades down the line than anything else. Let's get back to talking about war though, this is a bit too much politics for my comfort.
>>13452 I just meant when looking up stuff for the war I have to diff through a bunch of shit to find anything solid didn’t mean to make it political
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>>13454 oh, sorry for getting political then. Yeah, finding anything worth reading about the war is fucking awful. We need a /k/ommando news agency, which sends /k/ommando reporters to war zones to just walk up to units on the front lines and say "hey, can you tell me about all the cool weapons you've got, and neat things you're doing with them?"
>>13335 The war is over, Ukraine lost, it only has to be determined to what degree. That's the strategic situation. Are they going to stop? No, it can keep going for much longer.
>>13525 Oh great, one of you morons followed us here.
>>13529 Just ignore them
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>>13529 >>13536 >>13537 >>13539 Dude they're just going to get foreign aid until russia collapses. That's the storyline and that's what's going to happen.
Since the consensus seems to be that Ukraine has no reasonable way of winning, how long do we expect the war to continue? Personally I think it will be less than 2 years, but other than that I really can't say.
>>13559 They still have a whole generation of men to tap, 18-25, then the women, then Zelenskiyjungend. They can hold off for a pretty long time still.
>>13588 I don't think any of those would buy them all that much time. Aside from how even lower quality troops would suffer higher casualties than they are already experiencing, they also could lead to morale and discipline problems. Conscripting women and children also isn't going to do anything to help replace the losses in the more experienced and better trained units that they use to contain breakthroughs, and without those they'll be forced to try to counter breakthroughs with conscripts.
>>13592 I was joking (though you can never underestimate the hohol affinity for stubborn suicide), obviously sooner or later the conflict is going to reach a critical point where the people unwilling to die to deny their Russian heritage will overcome the number of those willing to, at which point the country will capitulate and be carved up. Hard to say how long it'd take though, but let's play a bit with the numbers. Ukraine was about 40 million people, so let's say 20 million men. Of those, 2/3 would be either too young or too old to be forced into conscription, so that leaves around 6.5 available. Last summer I think the official Russian estimate was around 450k dead Ukrainian military, so if they killed half a million in two years of war, the war could go on for 10+ years still. Of course it's not that simple, for instance Ukraine is now estimated to have 10 million less people than in 22, foreign support is questionable, not all the wounded could return to combat, etc.
>good convo immediately ruined by both ukie and rus tards Fun while it lasted I suppose
>>13621 The rustard is at least engaging with the conversation, and the ukietard seems to have left (he went to a thread about Taiwan that was imported from anon.cafe and replied to some posts from more than a year ago to just rant about Russians). I think we can salvage this if we stay on topic. So what's your estimate for how much longer the war will last?
>>13628 Already gave it
>>13631 oh, sorry. uh, shit, gotta come up with a new thing that's on topic. How about sources. What do you think of New World Geopolitics? That channel was linked in the OP of the last thread and I watched a few of his videos and he seemed relatively objective. I haven't watched anything from weeb union yet or whatever the channel was called, but I was going to check that out next.
>>13633 I mostly use Slav channels to help understand Ukrainian and Russian mindsets. I don’t know if you are into video games but a guy called warlockarcy does great videos based on slavjank and Slav mods that delve deep into how Russia’s culture since the Soviet Union has changed. He’s a Belarusian if I remember correctly. As for Geopolitics I mostly bounce between stuff
>>13634 >warlockarcy never heard of him, but I do like vidya and slavjank, so I'll check him out. New World Geopolitics is the name of the channel, he seems to mostly do breakdowns of mapping stuff for the Russo-Ukrainian war.
>>13636 Oh thought you meant like a new world order of geopolitics. I’ll check him out also here’s a video by warlockarcy that explains some things now as for what side he’s on you can kinda guess with his opening line but he really doesn’t go that far with it https://youtu.be/PfLEVnTqIxw?si=6S-PBHs2fq7N4oXg
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>>13639 >as for what side he’s on you can kinda guess with his opening line Nope, I never know for sure what level of irony someone is operating on.
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are there any recent clips of Russian or Ukrainian soldiers just goofin off and chilling? I miss the old low intensity period of the war before 2022 for all the chill clips it gave us. The whole war just had a different vibe back then. It wasn't so full of hate.
This isn't a weapons thread. This is a /chug/ refugee thread packed with walls of kremlinbot propaganda thread. Fuck off back to /pol/.
>>13698 >everyone having a good time now that we're finally free of the bots and shills <WHAT? WHY AREN'T YOU ACTING LIKE THE BOTS AND SHILLS? THIS ISN'T THE /K/ I REMEMBER lmao >>13712 It's alright, not quite the mood I remember but it's still fun.
>>13559 I wouldn’t say that’s the consensus at all, i think if there’s anything that’s become pretty obvious from this new period of quiet without all the shills screaming in everyone’s ears, it’s that there is no consensus because even the “experts” only have a vaguely reasonable idea of what the fuck is actually going on. personally i find that pro-russians underestimate the k/d ratio that the russian army is suffering, gore as it may be, ukraine produces a fuckload more visual confirmations of destroyed enemy formations/equipment. Either ukraine just has a lot more people choosing to upload them, or russia simply has far less victories to show off, who knows.
>>13559 I wouldn’t say that’s the consensus at all, i think if there’s anything that’s become pretty obvious from this new period of quiet without all the shills screaming in everyone’s ears, it’s that there is no consensus because even the “experts” only have a vaguely reasonable idea of what the fuck is actually going on. personally i find that pro-russians underestimate the k/d ratio that the russian army is suffering, gore as it may be, ukraine produces a fuckload more visual confirmations of destroyed enemy formations/equipment. Either ukraine just has a lot more people choosing to upload them, or russia simply has far less victories to show off, who knows.
>>13758 >I wouldn’t say that’s the consensus at all It seemed to be the consensus in this thread, since when I asked what people thought the situation was nobody said they thought Ukraine could win. If I misinterpreted what someone said then I apologize. >even the “experts” only have a vaguely reasonable idea of what the fuck is actually going on. The public doesn't really get much access to expert analysis, people like the ISW for instance seem to be pretty extremely biased. Whenever we do get access to leaked expert analysis, it radically differs from what is presented publicly and paints a grim picture for the Ukrainians, like that French news article or the leaked stuff from that national guard idiot on the Thugshakers discord. >personally i find that pro-russians underestimate the k/d ratio that the russian army is suffering I've found that pro-Russian and seemingly neutral sources seem to agree that Russia is taking heavy losses, but not so heavy as to be causing them many problems. Whether they are taking more or less losses than the Ukrainians seems to be up for debate, although most seem to think they are losing more men than the Ukrainians, but nobody seriously believes Ukraine's official claims about Russian losses or their own. Even if they were losing twice as many men as the Ukrainians it wouldn't be enough for Ukraine to win the war, and if Russia actually becomes worried about losing they can still actually declare war and fully mobilize. >ukraine produces a fuckload more visual confirmations of destroyed enemy formations/equipment. I don't speak Russian and still haven't found a good alternative frontend for telegram, so I can't actually verify that. Pretty much all of the footage I saw from the war was from 4/k/. If it does turn out to be true, there are plenty of reasons why that would be the case. Russia doesn't really benefit much from proving that they are killing Ukrainians and destroying equipment, since Russians will mostly believe their claims anyway, and western audiences mostly won't even hear about it except when it's used to agitate against Russia, plus releasing footage is generally bad for opsec. On top of that Russia has a huge artillery advantage, so when they shell something 20+ kilometers away or hit something when they engage in recon by fire, they aren't going to be able to get good footage to release even if it was drone corrected. Meanwhile most Ukrainian equipment is the same stuff the Russians use, so when something Ukrainian gets blown up behind the lines, Ukrainians have an incentive to photograph it and claim it was Russian for the same reasons they release actual confirmations of destroyed Russian materiel. Consequently a decent amount of the pictures and videos claimed to be Russian losses may be Ukrainian. >Either ukraine just has a lot more people choosing to upload them, or russia simply has far less victories to show off, who knows. On top of the things I mentioned above, Ukraine also just uses a lot more FPV drones I think, so when they hit something they almost always have footage to show off. Not everything is recorded all the time, so we have a bias in what gets recorded on top of what happens and what gets released.
>>13758 Just because shitholes like 4chan censored the Russian side, doesn't mean there are more vids from Ukraine.
>>13766 >If it does turn out to be true It's not.
>>13821 >shitty music every time Can Slavs actually put music that isn’t from a cod game or dubstep?
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>>13821 I feel like we should be hesitant about deciding whether or not it's true unless someone has a fairly complete archive of all the war footage that's been published that we could actually analyze objectively and actually do the math. I'd say that my hunch is that Russia publishes at least a bit less of what they get, for the reasons I outlined in that post. >>13831 yeah, fucking hell. Why can't they at least put hardbass over their clips. Gopniks putting speakers on their T-72s and blasting hardbass would make this war way more enjoyable.
>>13854 Well, I've been following the whole thing since the start and there was never a lack of matching footage. Except maybe the first weeks when I guess the Russians thought it was not a good look to brag about killing people.
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>>13360 >Nah I know what you mean anon, I just find it ridiculous on the basis of history. Ukraine hasnt been its own country for long and I think the sentiment is largely astroturfed even over there. The Ukraine has historically been just another region with Russia for virtually all of history. The difference between the two I'm sure is as significant as southerners vs yankees in the US where there is certainly a difference, but imo it's still largely a meme difference. Although I reckon we could probably go back and forth on this and never truly see each other point so we could just agree to disagree on it, especially when I know plenty of actual Ukrainians would disagree with me till they are blue in the face. Historically I just don't see it lol. It doesn't really matter much now though NTA but borders =/= nations. Ukraine has consisted a distinct people and polity for a very long time and the main reason why there were/are so many Russians and Russian-speakers there in the last century and currently is because of genocide, plain and simple. Ukraine (along with Poland, the Baltics, Finland, etc.) was clamoring for independence following the February Revolution with Bolshevik assurances that they would be allowed self-determination in exchange for support but when it became apparent that the Bolsheviks were lying through their teeth it became a full-blown war of independence between a more nationalist government in the west and Bolsheviks in the east, which the Bolsheviks won in '22. Ukrainians maintained their identity, however, and later in the 20s Stalin (who was an officer in the first Soviet-Russian war) decided that they still had a wee bit too bourgeoisie-nationalist sentiment and came down on them - hard. Many Ukrainian writers, musicians, artists, etc. were purged or suppressed, the Ukrainian language was suppressed alongside anything with even a tentative connection to the idea of Ukraine as a nation, the most troublesome regions were subject to mass exile and the confiscation of lands, etc. And then you eventually come to the Holodomor, which was essentially Stalin using famine as a pretext for deliberate genocide complete with resettlement of ethnic Russians in newly depopulated areas. After WWII the Russification process increased dramatically, though later leaders took a softer "we're all one big happy Russian family" tactic and the process didn't stop until the USSR finally ate shit and died in '91. Worth noting is that upon that happy event occurring, one of the first things that the government of Ukraine did was to make Ukrainian the official state language. Lest I be accused of favoritism or glossing over things, though, I want to state clearly that Ukrainians were never a monolith. During the first war with the Bolsheviks, many peasants (especially in the bread-basket of the east) initially remained sympathetic to or even sided with the Bolsheviks just like many other peasants in eastern Europe. During WWII there were Ukrainians who fought beside the Germans because they preferred them to the Soviets, Ukrainians who resisted the Germans because they preferred the Soviets and Ukrainians who resisted the Germans and the Soviets in the name of an independent Ukraine - and of course the millions of Ukrainians in the Red Army, willing and otherwise. Many Ukrainians were happy to be part of the USSR in mind, body and soul. They aren't western Europeans and they aren't le ebin freedom fighters who always resisted le evil Russia but the fact remains that they're not just "another flavor of Russian" any more than Armenians or Poles or Czechs are. >especially when I know plenty of actual Ukrainians would disagree with me till they are blue in the face. Yeah, most of them are pretty particular about not being Russian. Go figure. >Historically I just don't see it lol. It doesn't really matter much now though It's pretty significant if you want an understanding of the historical context of the current conflict. >>13866 >Well, I've been following the whole thing since the start and there was never a lack of matching footage. Except maybe the first weeks when I guess the Russians thought it was not a good look to brag about killing people. I've been following it from the beginning as well but it kinda depends on where you draw the line for "matching"; the Russians have plenty of 'nade drop and aerial FPV footage (frankly like 95%+ of that stuff just bores me no matter the origin; I've never been a fan of gore spam even if some of the vids are pretty amusing) but as far as I've seen there's been a distinct pro-Ukrainian disparity in footage that's unique and interesting and which they either took or were responsible for, like the USV footage and targets way behind the front lines getting droned. On the other hand, the Russians have also put out some pretty hilarious footage and in non-combat shenanigans they have the lead by a country mile. I don't have it handy but that video of the Russian ships accidentally shelling a city with light AA while trying to kill a drone is pure gold and the same goes for the vid that spawned pic rel and everything related to Prig Boss (vid rel, sorry for no sound). RIP hot dog man, you were too pure for this earth.
>>13888 Fugg, video won't upload. Tried it three times, still ate shit. Anyway it's the video of one of the Wagner guys talking about how a Wagner cemetery is getting bulldozed if you know that one.
>>13888 As always, historical revisionists never touch on several things. Number 1 is the language, where it came from, why it's so retarded, and always pretend it happened ass-backwards. It wasn't Ukrainians being Russified, it was always Russians being Ukrainified. Especially during the Soviet Union days where today's Ukraine actually took shape (not that Ukrainians would ever acknowledge they owe most of the country to the Soviets). What would be considered the start of today's ethnic Ukrainians were from Galitsia under Polish rule, while the rest of the land sided with Russia since ethnicity was closest to them. Now here of course it must be said back then ethnic belonging wasn't as clear-cut as later on, but there was one thing that tied people there together. Language. Ukrainians like to spout some shit about their language being descended from Ruthenian as a separate thing from Russian, but then you go and see Ruthenian was literally called Russian word or Russian language. Poland-Lithuania and later on Austro-Hungary of course fostered this Ukrainian ethnicity and "language" for obvious reasons and we see it worked well enough into the modern age where the Soviets used it as a political bargaining chip that eventually created the shitshow we have today. So no, it is incomparable to Armenians, Poles, Czechs, as in effect they literally are another flavor of Russian. Case in point would be one interview where a Ukrainian nationalist said that they all had to speak Russian on the frontline to be understood. Guess war simplifies matters to what matters. >>13890 Yes, I know the one. Another cheap piece of propaganda, since it was the demolishing of the temporary monuments the pro-Ukraine crowd had so much fun shitting on anyway, in order to build an actual memorial gravesite.
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>>13866 I really think it's pointless to talk about which side puts out more footage unless we can actually get hard numbers. >>13888 >I want to state clearly that Ukrainians were never a monolith. За Монолит! >>13888 >there's been a distinct pro-Ukrainian disparity in footage that's unique and interesting >On the other hand, the Russians have also put out some pretty hilarious footage and in non-combat shenanigans they have the lead by a country mile. I strongly suspect that your sympathy for the Ukrainians has made it harder for you to appreciate Russian combat footage. Back during the first few weeks of the war when I supported Ukraine I had trouble appreciating it too, and it was only after I soured on Ukraine that I came to appreciate it. Honestly I think Russia has released more funny clips than Ukraine, at least that I've seen. The helmet cam where the guy shoots two guys in a foxhole then does a barrel roll out of it was pretty damn funny for instance.
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>>13905 Can you spoiler gore if you're going to post it. I don't really see why you included a clip of a person who was clearly hors de combat being executed, that shit really doesn't further any point you were making.
>>13934 From my experience it’s to make the more pro Ukrainian side react to the footage and insult faster and this thread has really deviated into an ethnic argument than the war itself. Russians and Ukrainians will always argue about their origins though no doubt about that
>>13938 Why are you trying to derail the thread further? Let's try to actually talk about the war. We haven't been able to for so long, and I really want to be able to enjoy the first large conventional peer war in like 50 years. I've already missed out on the first 3 years of it because of this shit. Post cool footage, not butthurt crap like that. Got any cool clips of tanks doing tank things? Maybe some helmet cam footage?
>>13944 I was trying to get on track again. Talking the genetics and language is only going to bring a lot of shit in here. I don’t why you think I’m trying to derail it
>>13945 Because you can't get a thread back onto the rails by antagonizing people, you have to refocus on the topic and get the discussion moving again. So let's discuss the war. What do you guys think was the idea behind the Belgorod offensive? Personally I think the Belgorod offensive was the Ukrainians sending the forces that were allocated to help exploit a breakthrough in Kursk to go attack somewhere else in the hopes that the Russian lines would be weakened due to units being moved to contain the Kursk offensive. But I really don't have any evidence for that, it's just the only explanation I can think of for why they'd launch another offensive at a stronger part of the line after a bigger one just failed against a weaker part of the line.
>>13950 I thought it was to relieve pressure of Kursk and Sumy by diverting Russians away I’m not entirely sure either
>>13335 Ukraine is short on SAMs, cruise missiles and men. Russia is short on cars / trucks, armour and PGMs. Long term Russia will out produce Ukraine if the west doesn't step up aid but the longer this lasts the greater the odds of a Russian coup. It could still go either way and I'm as pissed as ever we decided to look like a bunch of pussies instead of helping Ukraine end this quickly and scare China out of getting any ideas.
>>13905 I'm not getting back into the weeds over whose grandparents were from where in the 17th century because sooner or later we'll end up in the neolithic; my point was that (a) a Ukrainian cultural, national and ethnic identity exists and (b) said identity was repressed by the Soviets for 70+ years. This was not a unique set of circumstances by any means and I am not according it any exceptional status. I will also freely admit that the ethnic identity is the weakest aspect of that but also by far the least important for what I was talking about. >Yes, I know the one. Another cheap piece of propaganda, since it was the demolishing of the temporary monuments the pro-Ukraine crowd had so much fun shitting on anyway, in order to build an actual memorial gravesite. What exactly was the propaganda intent behind making a video intended for domestic consumption complaining about how your own government is bulldozing the graves of your brothers-in-arms? >>13927 >I strongly suspect that your sympathy for the Ukrainians has made it harder for you to appreciate Russian combat footage. Maybe, but I still wouldn't say I'm all that sympathetic; I think it might be more that I tend to not really care too much about infantry-centric footage. Not that it can't be amusing or informative but in a vacuum (IIRC the existence of the GAZ-69 obr. 2025 was revealed in an FPV video, for instance) the grenade drop/FPV/gopro footage that makes up most of the bulk of either side leaves me uninspired and I am also much less interested in the performance of Soviet arms and materiel than the performance of western arms and materiel, especially given that this is as close to "what if the cold war turned hot" that any of us will ever see given the equipment in use. The incredible amount of schadenfreude that I get when comparing Russian propaganda from the Obama years with footage of "we have VW bus at home" being on the battlefield three years into a three-day war against the poorest shithole in Europe (except maybe Moldova, I guess) also probably has something to do with it. >Back during the first few weeks of the war when I supported Ukraine I had trouble appreciating it too, and it was only after I soured on Ukraine that I came to appreciate it. Honestly I think Russia has released more funny clips than Ukraine, at least that I've seen. The helmet cam where the guy shoots two guys in a foxhole then does a barrel roll out of it was pretty damn funny for instance. I lurked /chug/ (god I hate generals so fucking much) pretty regular as well as /k/ just to keep an eye out for anything and I generally remained unimpressed by the Russian footage. They have some stuff going for them for sure (like footage from KA-52s) but overall it just didn't impress me - aside from the unintentionally amusing, like how the BMPT's barrels do the harlem shake in every video. >>13950 >What do you guys think was the idea behind the Belgorod offensive? Personally I think the Belgorod offensive was the Ukrainians sending the forces that were allocated to help exploit a breakthrough in Kursk to go attack somewhere else in the hopes that the Russian lines would be weakened due to units being moved to contain the Kursk offensive. But I really don't have any evidence for that, it's just the only explanation I can think of for why they'd launch another offensive at a stronger part of the line after a bigger one just failed against a weaker part of the line. Makes sense to me. I think that the Ukrainians expected the Russians to absolutely flip its shit over Kursk and pull as much manpower as needed to reclaim it as fast as possible but the Russians didn't take the bait. I'm looking forward to the books that are going to come out about this war after the dust settles, especially from the perspective of the Russian brass - assuming that any ever get written, of course. >>13959 >It could still go either way and I'm as pissed as ever we decided to look like a bunch of pussies instead of helping Ukraine end this quickly and scare China out of getting any ideas. Which ideas would you be referring to, exactly? I don't think that the war in Ukraine has much immediate significance to China re:Taiwan but Xi might seriously be considering discussing the ownership of Outer Manchuria with Putin.
>>13969 >Which ideas would you be referring to, exactly? The west has been shown to be lacking political will, for intervention in a war inside Europe, this would imply we also lack the political will to intervene in Asia.
>>13959 I haven't seen anything to indicate Russia isn't short on any of the things you said they were. I also don't think the war could go either way at this point. Russia isn't going to have a coup d'état, and even if they did, the new regime would likely be military hardliners who would be even less willing to negotiate. If your only hope for victory is "maybe the enemy will just get bored of beating me up and fight themself instead" it might be time to just surrender. Aside from a direct boots on the ground intervention that would probably escalate into a nuclear war, the US can't do shit to help Ukraine do more than delay the inevitable at the cost of more Ukrainian and Russian lives. >>13969 > I think it might be more that I tend to not really care too much about infantry-centric footage. I feel similarly. Small arms just don't excite me. >I am also much less interested in the performance of Soviet arms and materiel than the performance of western arms and materiel I don't care from whence a weapon comes. I tend to like Russian and Soviet stuff for being pretty effective for its price, and I like to envision a world where one day I can buy an attack helicopter. >The incredible amount of schadenfreude that I get when comparing Russian propaganda from the Obama years with footage of "we have VW bus at home" What on earth are you so mad about? Every country hypes up its military, and western equipment hasn't been proven to be all that much more survivable or capable. Do you feel betrayed that Abrams and Leopard 2s get blown up about as quickly when they are used on the offensives by Ukraine? You being butthurt about Russia saying their weapons were good before the war doesn't seem rational at all to me. Their weapons are good, but so are everyone elses. >the Russians didn't take the bait. yeah, they handled it pretty well. >>13973 >this would imply we also lack the political will to intervene in Asia. Depends on what conflicts crop up. The US would probably intervene in a new Korean war, or if someone attacked Japan or something, but allies without actual US military presences in their country will probably be given an apology fruit basket and our deepest condolences if China attacks them.
>>13981 >allies without actual US military presences The US currently has ~80 men in Taiwan, I think the current US admin would sit it out.
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>>13981 >I don't care from whence a weapon comes. I tend to like Russian and Soviet stuff for being pretty effective for its price, and I like to envision a world where one day I can buy an attack helicopter. Hey, you do you. I can certainly respect that attitude and I'm certainly not hostile to slavshit, it's just that I'm more interested in seeing how western gear performs because for a lot of this stuff it's the first time it has done anything besides curb-stomp sandniggers, at least for a couple decades now. >What on earth are you so mad about? I'm not mad about anything. If I sounded mad that was not my intent whatsoever. >Every country hypes up its military, Sure, of course. As it should be. What always rubbed me the wrong way about Russia, however, was their constant posturing of "if we wanted to, we could invade and destroy you in a week so maybe it is a good idea to stay in our good graces, yes? ;^)" bookended with with "btw did you know that Russia has N U K E S?" and compounded by endless bullshit and a total lack of introspection. Seeing all of that smugness finally wither and die in a thousand ways has been balm to my soul. If I was a praying man I'd be praying for their future, but as I am not a praying man I'll just go with this: I wish Russia and Russians all of the best, but I don't know if I can really respect them until they pull their head out of their ass and finally make a clean break with their Soviet inheritance. This isn't easy, as inheriting a Soviet hangover bears a close resemblance to inheriting AIDS, but Poland has done it and the Baltics have done it and the Czechs and Germans have done it so I believe that the Russians can as well. >and western equipment hasn't been proven to be all that much more survivable or capable. While that very much depends on the equipment and how it's being used I would generally disagree depending on the standards for "much", and in a few cases I would specifically disagree. Links related are interesting; someone on 4/k/ made a thread a week before the site ate shit about a Russian evaluation of the Bradley vs. the BTR-3 and I grabbed an archive of the thread and the source if you're interested. Pic rel. If you know of any other Russian evaluations of western materiel being used in this war I'd love to see them. https://archive.ph/l95fE https://archive.ph/NwtFQ >Do you feel betrayed that Abrams and Leopard 2s get blown up about as quickly when they are used on the offensives by Ukraine? No? Why would I? I'm old enough to remember coalition tanks aplenty getting smoked in the GWOT and I don't have brain damage so I just rolled my eyes at retarded nut-hugging over deliveries of Leopards or Abrams or even F-16s or whatever. Some of it worked out great and some of it has been a nothingburger but you can't know until it's actually there. >yeah, they handled it pretty well. I for one wasn't expecting it, though in fairness I don't know how much coverage the event got in Russian media and I feel like the response of the public had to be an important part of the plan to provoke a reaction.
>>13854 I think Russia publishes as many videos of destroyed equipment as they possibly can (they may only hesitate at showing bloody stuff since they know they are the aggressors and the bad guys and they don't want to appear as such). The reason is, we've seen a video of a missile destroying an office building claiming it was a HIMARS, and many instances of low quality footage; if they have to resort to this it is because they scramble to to publish videos of every victory they achieve, real or fictional (nevermind that they have been able to destroy a few HIMARS for real since then). On the other hand I agree that they probably cause many deaths they can't visually confirm themselves, just by firing in Ukrainians' direction.
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>>13998 nta and unrelated but, closest thing we have to this so far?
>>13934 Because I spent three years of the pro-Ukraine crowd doing the same. Besides, it's war, that is the reality of it, generally I think it should be encouraged to understand it's not sunshine and rainbows. Guns are fun, getting shot is not. And it's not like it's that gory anyhow, but if you're squeamish about death, I can censor harsher stuff.
>>13927 >I really think it's pointless to talk about which side puts out more footage unless we can actually get hard numbers. True, nobody is really going to go back and count all the videos of who did what, there are thousands of them. I'm just going by feel, so just an opinion from my end.
>>13969 And my point was the Soviets were the best thing to ever happen to them. The Soviet oppressors not only gave them a shitload of ethnic Russian land, but also protected the status of the language and let them Ukrainianize the populace. You can't invoke history and then pick and choose which part you like. >What exactly was the propaganda intent behind making a video intended for domestic consumption complaining about how your own government is bulldozing the graves of your brothers-in-arms? The graves weren't being bulldozed, the graves became memorials. Apparently Prigozhin himself wanted to make all the Wagner cemeteries have the unified look of the dragon's teeth. Cheap. Propaganda.
>>13990 Well, if Taiwan is able to hold out and buy time, then I feel like the US would at least send in the navy. Though, I don't think anyone would really make a serious move in the first place.
>>13950 The Belgorod offensive makes sense as much as the Kursk offensive did. Probing for a weak spot and then pouring forces into it with the general goal of forcing the Russians to divert forces and scoring a propaganda piece for retards. The issue for them now is, the Russians are tired of this shit and the forces allocated to the Northern Ukrainian border are much larger due to the Kursk fiasco. Now with all the forces there, the Russians are in Sumi and there's renewed activity around Volchansk.
>>14016 >And my point was the Soviets were the best thing to ever happen to them. Observe; this is what "the big lie" looks like. >You can't invoke history and then pick and choose which part you like. Oh yes I can! That's like saying you can't like the EPA because Nixon.
>>13992 >Hey, you do you. I do do me, (quite often actually hurr hurr), I was just explaining where my feelings come from since you put your cards on the table. Sorry if I came across like I was trying to make you align your interests with mine. I just wanted you to be aware that I don't view weapons in an absolute sense and try to appreciate them in their own logistical context, along with their export price because I fantasize about someday going to an IFV dealership and seriously having to decide if I want to fork over the extra money to get a Bradley instead of a BMP-3. It's what the founding fathers would have wanted. >I'm not mad about anything. If I sounded mad that was not my intent whatsoever. oh, schadenfreude tends to involve sated anger, so I misinterpreted your use of the word. Sorry about that. >if we wanted to, we could invade and destroy you in a week so maybe it is a good idea to stay in our good graces, yes? ;^) I mean the "NAFO" crowd back on 4/k/ did a shitload of that too. Don't you remember all those retarded fantasies they'd spew about how the US could do a Gulf War on any country in the world? If you're going to hold the words of propagandists and flag waving morons against the entire country they support, you've got a lot to hold against the US. >Links related are interesting; someone on 4/k/ made a thread a week before the site ate shit about a Russian evaluation of the Bradley vs. the BTR-3 Yeah, the Bradley is one of the few western weapons that has proven to be hugely superior to its Russian counterpart (I'm pretty sure they compared it to a BMP-3, a BTR-3 would have been a pretty bad point of comparison) during this war. It also is more expensive and is a bigger logistical burden, but for most customers I think that price difference will be considered worthwhile. So whether the improvement is worth the price really should be left to the customer. I said "all that much more survivable" for a reason, it's because I'm well aware that they are better, I just think that, as Paul Harrel used to say "is the difference enough of a difference to make the difference? Well you be the judge". >No? Why would I? Because you seem to be holding Russia to that sort of standard. You're acting like they've been completely discredited and that their previous bluster about having a powerful military was proven to be false. That really doesn't seem to be the case. >>13998 > they know they are the aggressors and the bad guys I don't really agree with that. Since I've been looking more into the war recently, I've come to understand that the west successfully flipped Ukraine to their side back in 2014, the possibility of a western aligned Ukrainian government putting anti-ship missiles in Crimea to cut off their only convenient warm water port was deemed to be an existential threat. I don't know why they decided to launch the 2022 invasion, but I suspect there were rational reasons for it that were seen as existential for Russia. I'm still catching up on the whole war though, and there is a lot of stuff to cover. >The reason is, we've seen a video of a missile destroying an office building claiming it was a HIMARS, and many instances of low quality footage The first few times I read your post I thought you were saying they were claiming an office building was destroyed by a HIMARS, I think I might be retarded for not connecting it with the parenthetical at the end until after I wrote a whole paragraph about how claiming Ukraine is committing atrocities against Russian civilians obviously was in Russia's interest. Low quality footage and inaccurate claims could actually fall in line with Russia's overall information strategy. They get no real benefit from trying to convince western audiences that they are winning, in fact they benefit from seeming weak, since western voters might go "why the hell are we giving Ukraine a bazillion dollars to fight people who fight those chumps". More importantly though it is useful from an information theoretic sense. Low quality footage reduces the chances of opsec being compromised by something in the footage, and posting deliberate bullshit in every direction muddies the waters and reduces the chances that accurate information will be identified and taken seriously in time to be exploited. Russia has long employed a propaganda strategy that I've heard called the "firehose of falsehood" where they broadcast what is effectively noise to drown out useful discussion. >I agree that they probably cause many deaths they can't visually confirm themselves Good to hear you agree with that, what do you think about the possibility that Ukrainians are claiming their own lost vehicles behind the lines as being Russian? I think the Russians might do that too, but to a lesser extent, for the same reasons I think Russia is less inclined to publish kill claims overall. Except for stuff that one side uses but the other doesn't, I think it's a bad idea to be too confident that figures of visually confirmed equipment losses are accurately attributed. Also Oryx obviously works hard and all, but I really doubt that it's possible to tell with any degree of certainty which model of T-72 a wreck is from just a picture of the turretless hull in the bottom of a muddy crater. >>14006 I'm not squeamish, it doesn't bother me because I'm grossed out or something, it bothers me because it's off topic and didn't have anything to do with the point you were making, so it just seemed butthurt. I don't want the thread to derail into a flood of unrelated gore as if anyone here would be shocked by it. Just because the Ukraine crowd were doing it back on 4/k/ doesn't mean it's any less annoying here, in fact it's even more annoying because you should know better.
>>14022 What is the lie? >Oh yes I can! You must be part Ukrainian.
>>14068 > I fantasize about someday going to an IFV dealership and seriously having to decide if I want to fork over the extra money to get a Bradley instead of a BMP-3. It's what the founding fathers would have wanted. Man, that's the dream. I want an AMX-10 RC just because it looks like something that a kid would draw and call a "tank car". >I mean the "NAFO" crowd back on 4/k/ did a shitload of that too. Don't you remember all those retarded fantasies they'd spew about how the US could do a Gulf War on any country in the world? If you're going to hold the words of propagandists and flag waving morons against the entire country they support, you've got a lot to hold against the US. What makes the difference about what Russia put out is that it came from official sources (often Putin himself) and it has been consistent for decades. That's not a government official doing a funny for a soundbyte or someone getting caught joking on a hot mic or something, that's the official line that the state has taken. Flag-wavers on the internet don't count for much in this regard. >Yeah, the Bradley is one of the few western weapons that has proven to be hugely superior to its Russian counterpart (I'm pretty sure they compared it to a BMP-3, a BTR-3 would have been a pretty bad point of comparison) during this war. Correct; that was a typo I made. It was late. >It also is more expensive and is a bigger logistical burden, but for most customers I think that price difference will be considered worthwhile. So whether the improvement is worth the price really should be left to the customer. I said "all that much more survivable" for a reason, it's because I'm well aware that they are better, I just think that, as Paul Harrel used to say "is the difference enough of a difference to make the difference? Well you be the judge". I would say that everything so far has shown that they're unequivocally worth it. RIP Paul, too pure for this world. >Because you seem to be holding Russia to that sort of standard. Because as I said, Russia was constantly talking themselves up to that standard. I mean FFS state-affiliated media even celebrated early. >You're acting like they've been completely discredited and that their previous bluster about having a powerful military was proven to be false. That really doesn't seem to be the case. Completely discredited? No, of course not. If you're Georgia you still have plenty to worry about. However, to play on the idea of credit, it's like they were bragging for years that they had a credit score of 850 and one of these days they were gonna start a Ferrari collection and then when someone ran a credit check it turned out to be 312 and they're currently having a hard time getting a loan for a used Lada. They might still get that Lada and that still puts them above someone who can only afford a bicycle but it's still a far cry from what they claimed.
>>14068 >it bothers me because it's off topic In a Ukraine-Russia war thread? Methinks thou doth too much political correctness. You don't have to watch it if you're not interested and as for the butthurt crowd, fuck'em. >I don't know why they decided to launch the 2022 invasion To put it simply, the weight of the arguments for the war outweighed the ones against. Putin has a unique position as a powerful political entity that can get the support of the populace behind him and a good economy, who knows what happens later on in the vacuum he leaves in his wake. Ukraine had no intention of holding up to the Minsk agreements and made it pretty clear when they started buying Bayraktars and using them on the coattails of the Azerbaijani stomp on Armenia. Even if they didn't manage to succeed against the separatists militarily through time, they still decided to hinder Russia where they could via economic blockades and cutting off the water supply to Crimea and the well known transit issues to Europe. There was always a risk of a NATO or other sepaeate third party setting up in the country eventually, which could cockblock Russian intervention in the future. And they expected a limited scope operation that will secure Ukrainian compliance (the SMO literally was meant to be an SMO, not a war to delete Ukraine). But these are all conditional reasons, the one big reason I never hear anyone talk about is the people. That is the main prize here. If you're Russia, you gave Ukraine millions of people and huge swaths of land, all for Ukraine to now turn around and go to the enemy? That's a big hit to a nation facing demographic crisis, not to mention the whole strategic aspect of the territory of Ukraine. There's a reasoning behind it all, but pro-Ukrainians just say Putin is crazy and he shit himself walking up the stairs.
>>14021 (12106) >If the U.S deployed troops tomorrow in Ukraine, there is no guarantee that they would suddenly break through Russian defenses and suddenly launch a successful counter offensive. I think there is basically zero chance that they could. The US sending forces would lead to a declaration of war by Russia and a full mobilization, while the US forces would have a difficult time massing to launch the offensive without Russia using ballistic missiles to strike them and their logistics, possibly even with nuclear warheads. The US would be unlikely to get air superiority over the front in any capacity that would actually allow them to meaningfully support ground operations due to missile strikes on any air bases that could be used along with Russia's air defenses and air force being much more capable than any country the US has faced. >MAYBE the U.S could make a difference after many months or years of building up forces in the area and sending literally everyone I don't know if the US is really geared to fight a protracted conflict like this. Not just in terms of being unlikely to be willing to stomach the casualties it'd involve, but also because sustaining the effort would rely on supplies the US has stockpiled all over, and bringing them to the front would expose them to Russian strikes. This is to say nothing about how a commitment like that would leave US allies in other countries unprotected and that Iran, North Korea, and China would all probably attack US allies, and they would probably attack US logistics to ensure that the US doesn't defeat Russia then turn around and focus on them. >We also like to throw this term around "losing" okay but Russia has held its positions? How can you be losing and holding your defensive positions? I'd say a military is losing if they are not coming closer to accomplishing their goals. Whether you're gaining, holding, or losing ground really isn't indicative of which side is winning a war. That being said I don't think Russia is losing. > fighting to a stalemate. I think the stalemate actually works in Russia's favor. Russia can keep the war up pretty much indefinitely at this pace, while Ukraine will eventually not be able to field enough men to cover the whole line adequately. At that point Russia will be able to punch through Ukraine's lines somewhere and maneuver around to cut off huge swathes of the Ukrainian lines, which will allow them to end the war rather quickly. >>14039 (12106) >Ukraine is fighting a defensive war. They are leveraging 3 to 1 defenders advantage. Be careful when applying that. It's not a rule or anything, just a rule of thumb. The attacker has a lot of advantages too, like being able to choose where on the line to strike. > Russia just sucks at logistics and manufacturing not really. They are producing plenty of weapons, and their forces seem to be adequately supplied. They seem to be husbanding their resources quite well, and aren't throwing IFVs around in situations where a dude on a dirtbike could get the job done with similar efficiency. I don't think they are using less armor and stuff because they don't have any left, I think they are just avoiding losing it. >too much to overcome western force multipliers. I think Russia is overcoming them to a certain extent by engaging in a positional war of attrition where their advantages aren't as pronounced. Western gear really isn't great for wars of attrition. >The technological advances with drone technology are allowing things to happen that otherwise wouldn't. I think the exact degree to which drones have changed warfare is only fully understood by Russia and Ukraine right now, but I think they understand that change differently. It will be interesting to see how both sides reform their militaries in light of the lessons learned after the war, if Ukraine still exists after the war of course. >It may not even be 3 to 1 anymore, it might be closer to 4 to 1 or 5 to 1 it's never really been 3 to 1, the origin of the 3 to 1 thing is actually pretty interesting, and it was supposed to be part of a much larger mathematical algorithm for comparing the effectiveness of forces. IIRC Clausewitz actually wrote On War in part to rebut the idea that warfare can be reduced to mathematics. >Many of these things are also true of Ukrainian offensives and that's why Ukrainian offensives have failed. Those offensives were doomed from the start, and while it's easy to say this with the benefit of hindsight, I don't think it really was that hard to see that they weren't going to work ahead of time. > The frontline is the same as it was in 2023. Not really. I'm not just saying that because of the tiny territorial changes, but because Russia has done an excellent job of changing the nature of the front line by constructing the defensive lines and massive minefields that stopped the counteroffensives. The frontline, although it hasn't changed location by much, has changed its character. >The primary question is who can last longer than the other Russia, very much Russia. They aren't going to collapse on their own, and even if Putin dies nobody who is poised to replace him would end the war, but some of them might actually declare war and mobilize, which would cause them to win even faster.
>>14092 To say it the enemy is kind of a misnomer. A lot and I mean a lot of former eastern bloc countries know exactly how Russia treats anyone defying their interests now I get why Russians feel this way when that one defensive alliance made silent because of you is still around but they haven’t really done anything to put that fear to bed. They could’ve done something like a charm offensive or integrate their economies so it would hurt more if they left but Chechnya and Georgia invasions clearly set how other former Soviet states view Russia. There’s so many factors to this whole conflict they tend to blend into one blob after awhile
>>13934 >Can you spoiler gore since /r9k/ is no more, you'll have to go back to plebbit
>>14082 >I want an AMX-10 RC You are a /k/ommando of exquisite taste. >What makes the difference about what Russia put out is that it came from official sources (often Putin himself) and it has been consistent for decades. That's not a government official doing a funny for a soundbyte or someone getting caught joking on a hot mic or something, that's the official line that the state has taken. Flag-wavers on the internet don't count for much in this regard. I don't want to spend a bunch of time time researching what Putin himself or other official Russian government sources have said and compare them to sources from other countries to get an accurate comparison and decide if I think you're right about that. You're not letting your feelings about this interfere with contributing usefully to the discussion, so it's not like it matters. I just thought it was interesting how you disliked Russians because of it and was curious about why you thought it was so important. >Correct; that was a typo I made. It was late. I figured, we all do it. >I would say that everything so far has shown that they're unequivocally worth it. I wouldn't say that myself. I think that the biggest differences between the western stuff Ukraine has been getting and most of Russia's stuff are things that aren't integral to the design, like thermals. I don't think there are many instances of the most modern Russian stuff going head to head with the NATO stuff Ukraine got, but if it happened enough times to get a clear comparison I don't think western stuff would show enough of an improvement to say the difference is unequivocally worth it. After the war it will be really interesting to see how Russia's designs adapt and what they emphasize. I bet thermals will be one, I suspect that either amphibious capabilities will be abandoned in favor of more armor, or they will make sure that an amphibious vehicle is more able to do amphibious things at a moments notice so they don't have another pontoon bridge fiasco. >If you're Georgia you still have plenty to worry about. That's a fascinating thought. I suspect that with all the experience Russia has gained during the war Georgia would go down pretty fast. Kazakhstan would be a very interesting fight to watch too. Russia has become a lot more competent over the course of the war, so it'd be fascinating to watch what that looks like when facing opponents that haven't been able to learn and improve along with them at the same time. > it's like they were bragging for years that they had a credit score of 850 and one of these days they were gonna start a Ferrari collection and then when someone ran a credit check it turned out to be 312 and they're currently having a hard time getting a loan for a used Lada. I think everyone thought they were pretty good, they weren't just high on their own supply. The real surprise was more about how much war had changed since the last major conventional war. Little things like infantry drones turned out to have a much bigger impact than anyone expected, and asymmetric threats to armor and air power have changed the balance of power in favor of the defender in ways that I think are still being explored. If the US had invaded Iran or North Korea in 2022 instead of Russia invading Ukraine, I suspect that people would be making fun of the US for writing checks it can't cash. >>14092 >In a Ukraine-Russia war thread? In your post. It wasn't related to your post. You even said you were just trying to provoke the Ukraine people into sperging out. I'm not bothered by gore, I'm bothered by derailing a good thread when we finally have the opportunity to discuss the war properly for the first time. >Methinks thou doth too much political correctness. Faggot nigger kike tranny retard cunt. >You don't have to watch it if you're not interested The one you posted was meh, I'm pretty sure I already had it saved somewhere anyway, but there are so many clips like it that I don't care enough to check, I hadn't seen the overcooked pic before though, so that was kinda interesting. Notice that I didn't say "don't post gore" or even "only post gore if it's related to your point" I just asked you to spoiler it since it was off topic and I don't want the thread to be derailed by the Ukraine tards doing a gore flood so we have to pick through a dozen posts filled with nearly identical drone drops and suicides to find the posts that are actually on topic. That'd be annoying and would slow down the discussion enough that a lot of people wouldn't participate anymore. So please spoiler your gore/rekt shit, also post better stuff. > the weight of the arguments for the war outweighed the ones against. My real question isn't why they invaded at all, I want to know why they picked February 2022. The time of year was wrong for an offensive, and a lot of the preparation seemed hasty. I feel like something pushed them to go for it right then rather than wait at least for summer. > they expected a limited scope operation that will secure Ukrainian compliance I think they pursued a lot of objectives simultaneously to confuse the response, and if they Kiev offensive had gone perfectly they would have been happy to take the win and either install a puppet government or annex Ukraine, and if it hadn't gone perfectly but it hadn't gotten bogged down like it did I think they would have continued to fight their way to Kiev to draw away defenders from the eastern front. I think the primary goal was to take control of the area east of the Dnieper. It was pretty standard deep operations planning where they had lots of operations going on simultaneously working towards separate goals, and some of those operations went better than others. >the SMO literally was meant to be an SMO, not a war to delete Ukraine I think at this point Ukraine has proven to be so intractable that Russia might just keep it up until they take Kiev. As I've said before, once Ukraine's manpower levels reach a critical point then the war will end in Russia's favor pretty quickly. >>14105 >they haven’t really done anything to put that fear to bed. dude, they literally tried to join NATO and were pretty obviously trying to play nice in the 90s and early 00s. I really think a lot of the blame for them giving up on that can be placed at the feet of boomers who couldn't accept that Russia wouldn't be the enemy anymore. >>14106 >since /r9k/ is no more, you'll have to go back to plebbit my gore folder is probably bigger than yours newfag.
>>14123 Russia does have the same demographic problems as Ukraine does so they’re going to need to make babies or convince somebody to be in a Wagner group. Not saying it’s a massive problem at the moment but this war has not helped with this
>>14124 >Russia does have the same demographic problems as Ukraine does so they’re going to need to make babies or convince somebody to be in a Wagner group. Not saying it’s a massive problem at the moment but this war has not helped with this That's a concern that's decades away from causing major problems for Russia, while Ukraine is almost to the point where they can't conscript enough people to defend their whole front line. It isn't like Ukraine can just keep the fight up until they run out of men, there is going to be a minimum number of men needed to hold the line, and if they drop below that Ukraine's front line will collapse, slowly at first, then extremely rapidly. Another thing is that conscripts really can't replace the elite units they use to counter breakthroughs, and the Kursk and Belgorod offensives have likely heavily drained those. If they run out of those then Russia break through somewhere and cut off the supply lines to huge parts of the front, which would also cause a collapse.
>>14136 I highly doubt Ukraine is going to collapse
>>14138 Why do you think so? Their front line units were already operating at 50% manpower back in December of 2024, so unless they can get a massive new source of manpower or they have another defensive line somewhere that they could retreat to and defend with far fewer troops then they are going to collapse eventually.
>>14144 They’ve most likely built up their defenses since then and are probably lying about their numbers same as Russians do. To say they will collapse I think is very rushed judgement. All in all it’s extremely difficult to see since a lot on both sides are being very cautious when talking about anything involving manpower in what areas
>>14105 It's most certainly not. It is a military alliance made to counter the state that doesn't exist anymore, but that you are the successor of. And it took over not only some of your satellites, but some of your former union states as well, despite assurances to the contrary. And they keep expanding in your direction. It is an enemy, whether you like it or not. Charm offenaive? What's that going to do? Russia has been subsidizing Ukraine since forever, look how much good that did in the end. The simple truth is the West can outspend Russia in shills, propaganda, NGOs, bribes, separatist movements, etc. We also saw this during the past 3 years. How is Chechnya at all similar? It'd be the same as if Maine decided to rebel, somehow won de-facto independence and then invaded New Hampshire prompting a second war. And Georgia had a status-quo until they decided they were going to force a resolution on their separatists and courted NATO. How about not doing everything you can to irritate that gigantic power to your North next time? For what it's worth, they seem to be doing fine now relations-wise. That's just how big power politics work, the smaller guy listens to the bigger one or gets smacked. Monroe Doctrine ring a bell?
>>14123 >You even said you were just trying to provoke the Ukraine people into sperging out I said no such thing. I don't however care if they do. And if they do, that's what moderation is for, no? > I think they would have continued to fight their way to Kiev to draw away defenders from the eastern front I don't think so, the Kiev prong was woefully inadequate to take a city the size of Kiev. It was estimated to be around 50k people. I think the main task was to endanger the city, maybe even surround it to force compliance. >I'm pretty sure I already had it saved somewhere anyway Doubtful, it's pretty fresh.
>>14182 There was no assurances whatsoever. Did Russia do anything at all to maybe put NATO members at ease? >charm offenaive? What's that going to do? Helps simmer any doubt or concerns that countries would have with you it’s basic diplomacy >How is Chechnya at all similar? I didn’t say it was similar I said it solidified views of the former Soviet states thoughts of Russia. Same person different haircut. Why do you think every country ran into NATO’s arms because it was not a western propaganda operation but clear affirmation of their fears >That's just how big power politics work, the smaller guy listens to the bigger one or gets smacked. Yeah not really working in Russia’s favor in the slightest if anything it’s done the opposite it’s pushed neutral Finland and Sweden straight into NATO and has led to them being isolated from any meaningful economic markets except China.
>>14123 >I think that the biggest differences between the western stuff Ukraine has been getting and most of Russia's stuff are things that aren't integral to the design, like thermals. Where do you draw the line for "integral to the design"? Thermals are extremely important to the combat effectiveness of basically every combat vehicle with its own gun and vehicles have been designed around the use of thermals for literally decades now. Any sort of new IFV or tank or assault helicopter or whatever without thermals would be laughed out of the room, and the same goes for stuff like datalinks and modern comms. Integral =/= structural. >I don't think there are many instances of the most modern Russian stuff going head to head with the NATO stuff Ukraine got, but if it happened enough times to get a clear comparison I don't think western stuff would show enough of an improvement to say the difference is unequivocally worth it. I'd still disagree with that, but you might be using different metrics that I would. >After the war it will be really interesting to see how Russia's designs adapt and what they emphasize. I bet thermals will be one, Yeah, no kidding. Assuming that they can somehow get their hands on them, however. Even if the war ends and trade becomes somewhat normalized, anyone within striking distance of Russia will lobby very loudly to slap the kind of arms export restrictions toward Russia that normally are reserved for third-world warzones. >I suspect that either amphibious capabilities will be abandoned in favor of more armor, or they will make sure that an amphibious vehicle is more able to do amphibious things at a moments notice so they don't have another pontoon bridge fiasco. The idea of an amphibious IFV should have died in the 70s when it became apparent that they were going to be filling the shoes of light tanks and tankettes as opposed to being APCs with a bigger gun. As for the great pontooning, I feel like that was a command failure plain and simple. It takes a special kind of retard to order an improvised river crossing within range of enemy artillery - or worse, to order a crossing fully ignorant of enemy artillery disposition - and the fact that the shelling was so thorough speaks to an embarrassing lack of aviation support. Even if the troops on the ground got mulched, those Ukrainian guns should have been free pussy for anything with ground-attack capabilities. >>14182 >It's most certainly not. It is a military alliance made to counter the state that doesn't exist anymore, but that you are the successor of. And it had been declining for thirty years before the events of 2022. >And it took over not only some of your satellites, but some of your former union states as well, Emphasis there, of course, being on "former"; you chose an odd way of spelling "sovereign nations". >despite assurances to the contrary. If we're going to talk assurances, how about we take a look at Abkhazia and South Ossetia, or Transnistria? As early as the mid-90s Russia was in flagrant violation of multiple agreements inked with former vassals; there is no good faith present. >And they keep expanding in your direction. It is an enemy, whether you like it or not. Former Soviet states came to NATO banging on the door and begging to be let in. If you disagree, please point to coercion on the part of NATO re: membership since 1991. >Charm offenaive? What's that going to do? Charm offensives are meant to build good will and good faith and they don't work very well when the entity attempting a charm offensive has wet blood on their hands. >Russia has been subsidizing Ukraine since forever, look how much good that did in the end. Subsidies don't mean much in the face of illegal annexations. >And Georgia had a status-quo until they decided they were going to force a resolution on their separatists and courted NATO. How about not doing everything you can to irritate that gigantic power to your North next time? For what it's worth, they seem to be doing fine now relations-wise. <If you didn't want me to stab you then why didn't you give me your wallet? This is your own fault, really. >That's just how big power politics work, the smaller guy listens to the bigger one or gets smacked. Yeah, but the issue here is that the bigger guy has promised not to smack the smaller guy - in writing - and then immediately smacks him anyway when the smaller guy does something the big guy doesn't like. At that point, exactly what reason does the smaller guy have to trust anything the big guy says or does and to not find friends who might help him not get smacked in the future? >Monroe Doctrine ring a bell? Oh man, I could write a book on that. I'll come back to it later tonight.
>>14190 https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early >Helps simmer any doubt or concerns that countries would have with you it’s basic diplomacy It does nothing. When another big player decides to fuck with you, he's going to fuck with you. What did compliance do for Iraq in 03? >I didn’t say it was similar I said it solidified views of the former Soviet states thoughts of Russia. Same person different haircut. Why do you think every country ran into NATO’s arms because it was not a western propaganda operation but clear affirmation of their fears Fears of what? Putting down an islamist revolt? Oh no Russia! Don't kill all those poor headchoppers! We need those doctors and engineers in Europe! >Yeah not really working in Russia’s favor in the slightest if anything it’s done the opposite it’s pushed neutral Finland and Sweden straight into NATO One of the favourite Reddit lines is the Finland and Sweden shit. They weren't neutral. They were in the Partnership for Peace program since 97 and regularly held interoperability exercises with NATO armies. >and has led to them being isolated from any meaningful economic markets except China. One of the funniest things about Europeans in their tiny little hamlets and their fake sense of grandeur about being in the EU, NATO, OSCE, etc. is how little awareness they have about their own unimportance. 45 countries have adopted sanctions. And even in those 45, some are still trading happily with Russia. The EU has paid more for resources to Russia than it has given to Ukraine during the war.
>>14149 >They’ve most likely built up their defenses since then What do you mean? >are probably lying about their numbers same as Russians do. Yes, Ukraine is definitely lying about their numbers, that's why I'm not basing my assessment on Ukraine or Russia's claims. >To say they will collapse I think is very rushed judgement. No, it's weird to suggest that a country involved in a war of attrition isn't eventually going to run out of resources. Manpower is a finite resource, and all indications are they are reaching a critical level. >>14188 >I said no such thing. was this not you? >>13938 >if they do, that's what moderation is for, no? Let's not rely too heavily on moderation, heavy moderation didn't lead to good things back on 4/k/. >the Kiev prong was woefully inadequate to take a city the size of Kiev. I think that if they secured the route to Kiev further forces would have been assigned to assist in encircling and then taking the city. Even if their actual goal wasn't to take Kiev, making the Ukrainians think that would have drawn the vast bulk of their forces away from the east, so they would keep it up until it was no longer cost effective or until the eastern army group secured all their objectives. Hell, if they did capture Kiev that'd pretty much end the war, so on the off chance they actually were greeted as liberators I'm sure they'd be happy about it. >Doubtful, it's pretty fresh. Like I said, grenade drops on men who are hors de combat are a dime a dozen and all blur together. Hence why they're boring. >>14194 >Where do you draw the line for "integral to the design"? It's integral to the design if it requires building a whole new hull or turret or something to change it. If you can upgrade it easily it's not integral to the design. > Integral =/= structural. let's not argue about what words mean, let's just stick to trying to figure out what the other person means. >you might be using different metrics that I would. probably >Assuming that they can somehow get their hands on them, however I think they're going to focus heavily on promoting domestic high tech manufacture after the war. If nobody will sell them good thermals, then they'll probably steal the tooling to make thermals, kidnap experts, and hack companies that manufacture them. >anyone within striking distance of Russia will lobby very loudly to slap the kind of arms export restrictions toward Russia that normally are reserved for third-world warzones. Russia has one of the most capable military industrial complexes in the world, they might not be as great as the Soviets used to be, but after the war they're going to be taking a hard look at improving it.
>>14194 >And it had been declining for thirty years before the events of 2022. Declined so much it expanded by 14 states and moved the borders right up to Russia. >Emphasis there, of course, being on "former"; you chose an odd way of spelling "sovereign nations Yes, former. As in the former danger that NATO was meant to fight, but doesn't exist anymore. And if you want to argue sovereign nations, then we can argue about all the military interventions in sovereign nations by whichever country on the globe. Doesn't mean shit. But it sounds nice and tidy for propaganda purposes. >If we're going to talk assurances, how about we take a look at Abkhazia and South Ossetia, or Transnistria? As early as the mid-90s Russia was in flagrant violation of multiple agreements inked with former vassals; there is no good faith present. Not aware of the specific agreements. Care to point them out? >Former Soviet states came to NATO banging on the door and begging to be let in. If you disagree, please point to coercion on the part of NATO re: membership since 1991. Doesn't matter if it was voluntary or not. Your argument is it was completely ethical to do so, nobody cares. >Yeah, but the issue here is that the bigger guy has promised not to smack the smaller guy - in writing - and then immediately smacks him anyway when the smaller guy does something the big guy doesn't like. At that point, exactly what reason does the smaller guy have to trust anything the big guy says or does and to not find friends who might help him not get smacked in the future? And the bigger guy wouldn't have smacked the smaller guy, had the smaller guy known his place. The coup supported by the West was a violation of the infamous Budapest Memorandum, and even if it weren't, Ukraine just generally decided they were going to dedicate themselves to be a pain in the ass to Russia, now they're paying for it. >good faith and they don't work very well when the entity attempting a charm offensive has wet blood on their hands. Exactly, useless. >Subsidies don't mean much in the face of illegal annexations It's all relative.
>>14219 >was this not you? How would it be me? >Let's not rely too heavily on moderation, heavy moderation didn't lead to good things back on 4/k/. Ban the subnet, let god sort them out! It doesn't need to be heavy, just effective. /k/ wasn't shit because of heavy moderation, it was shit because moderation was inflitrated by faggots. >I think that if they secured the route to Kiev further forces would have been assigned to assist in encircling and then taking the city. Even if their actual goal wasn't to take Kiev, making the Ukrainians think that would have drawn the vast bulk of their forces away from the east, so they would keep it up until it was no longer cost effective or until the eastern army group secured all their objectives. Hell, if they did capture Kiev that'd pretty much end the war, so on the off chance they actually were greeted as liberators I'm sure they'd be happy about it. Well, I think they were considering what you're describing. Remember that fuckhuge convoy of trucks that was dicking around on the way to Kiev, just standing still for days? There was also a report the engineers started building a rail line to supply the Northern endeavour. And no, I don't think reinforcing this prong would have helped matters, since remember, at that point Russia was gimping itself with the low numbers they committed to this blyatzkrieg. The withdrawal was the correct response, as Ukrainian forces grew by the day and the flanks of the supply line were probably looking mighty tasty. >Like I said, grenade drops on men who are hors de combat are a dime a dozen and all blur together. Hence why they're boring. I'll diversify.
>>13733 >It's alright, not quite the mood I remember but it's still fun <Simba! This is all yours! <And there where the darkness is, that's where the Ukrops are <But today, after the Grads work, it will bring light and justice there!
>>14251 >How would it be me? Because you responded to the post I made in response to that post, and the reply chain has continued from there without any clarification, so I assumed that was just you responding to my request to spoiler gore by saying you wanted to antagonize Ukrainians and start a flame war. >Ban the subnet, let god sort them out! It doesn't need to be heavy, just effective. /k/ wasn't shit because of heavy moderation, it was shit because moderation was inflitrated by faggots. Maybe let's not piss off vamp by starting flamewars and making more work for him. He is also moderating /b/ so he's probably got his hands full. > I think they were considering what you're describing. I'm glad you agree. >I don't think reinforcing this prong would have helped matters I don't think so either, I just think that if it had gone well they would have done something like that. >The withdrawal was the correct response Yes, and I really should go back and look into the withdrawal more since at the time all we would hear was it was a total rout and Russia was finished and would lose the war blah blah blah. It'll be interesting to try and figure out what actually happened, I suspect it was a mostly orderly withdrawal once they unfucked that traffic jam. >I'll diversify. thanks, that clip is great. >>14254 I like that. Still a different mood, but it's pretty fun.
>>14264 >at the time all we would hear was it was a total rout and Russia was finished and would lose the war The only actual rout was the Lyman direction. That was Ukraine's biggest battlefield success and Russia's greatest disaster. It also sobered up Russian leadership to fully commit and sort out the manpower issue.
>>14219 >russia has one of the most capable military complexes in the world that’s beyond delusional man.
>>14226 >the coup wew >supported by the west WEW, by not involving themselves and seeing the near entirerety of ukraine’s population accepting the new govt, opening relations with them? >was a violation ukrainians deciding they didn’t want to be a literal puppet state after the leader fucked off to russia and took all the gold with him? basically all of this is bitchmade whining that russia gets to tantrum if it doesn’t get it’s way, that’s not the agreement. This is why the pro-russian argument just sounds so pathetic to me tbh, they had so many many many oppertunities to have good relations with ukraine, even right up until 2022 ukrainians genuinely did not see russia as the worst thing in the world and zelensky was the pro-russian presidential pick relatively speaking. oh yes, poor poor russia is such a victim because they might finally have some competition to their energy market. Might be more dumb offtopic politicking shit but idc at this point, ukroshill spam being obnoxious hasn’t actually sweetened this argument for me at all.
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>>14328 >The only actual rout was the Lyman direction. That was Ukraine's biggest battlefield success and Russia's greatest disaster. It also sobered up Russian leadership to fully commit and sort out the manpower issue. I'm really more interested in the details of the successful withdrawals. Breaking contact with the enemy and retreating in good order is actually really hard to do. Shit, that reminds me of another thing I need to look into. I want to find out more about the first Kerch bridge bombing. Was it a suicide bombing or what? >>14340 Holy shit are you seriously trying to debate this? Only a few countries in the world have domestic arms industries at all, and Russia's beats the pants off of most of them.
>>14360 >debate this i'm pointing out how ridiculous the statement is >only a few countries have domestic arms industries at all that's a different story entirely, if you actually add all the countries that have literally no arms industry to the list, they do look better, but compare the actual arms manufacturers with them and they're north korea or iran-tier.
>>14097 Just to spitball off of what you have said in your replies and what you have got me to think about: >I think there is basically zero chance that they could. Appreciate the definitive realism in your response, because nukes are definitely on the table if we are just going to get into WW3 and significant official American military intervention would certainly cause the geopolitical situation to transform. Also yes! No one seems to respect the fact that anti air systems have severely hampered air superiority. The only counter argument that I could think of for the sake of steelmaning- would be that if you did have a larger air force with more air frames that was properly supported via well organized naval and ground assets, those combined capabilities might allow certain avenues to open up when it comes to launching sorties. But that still doesn't really get around the fact that in order to do CAS you need to put the air frame in significant danger, and pretty much to do anything you need to put your planes in the cross hairs of a variety of counter measures. The value of these assets and the length of time it takes to replace them seems to cause military thinkers to prefer to use drones for a lot of these jobs, since drones are more disposable than a C-130 gunship, A-10 Warthog, Apache's or multi role aircraft... in a protracted conflict like this you can't afford to lose those assets so you'd much rather neuter the threat to them before you start to really leverage them. Even if you used precision guided munitions from high altitude, the aircraft is still not safe. Everything is disposable, of course, but the more advanced these things become, the longer and more costly they are to replace. It is a major issue that they can be taken out by something so cheap, or by a precision missile strike. It makes sense- anyway. If missile defense systems can swat down missiles- some missiles capable of traveling much faster than most any aircraft, it is logical to assume that no aircraft is really safe, whether its on the ground or in the air. At least not until you neuter those capabilities. >I'd say a military is losing if they are not coming closer to accomplishing their goals. Even by that definition, Russia's goal was to take over and pacify Ukraine. Ukraine's goal is to push Russians out of Ukrainian territory and stop the Russians from achieving their original mission. Even if we go by that win condition, the Russians are still holding Territory that they have managed to conquer, so they are a certain % done with the main goal- just inching closer to an endurance win. Ukraine successfully stopped Russian forces from completely taking over the territory- however has been unsuccessful in pushing Russians completely out and returning to pre-war territory control. As far as I can see neither side has achieved the overarching strategic goal. Russia has the edge because its inching towards Ukrainian exhaustion. >Not really. I'm not just saying that because of the tiny territorial changes, but because Russia has done an excellent job of changing the nature of the front line by constructing the defensive lines and massive minefields that stopped the counteroffensives. Very true, at the end of the day- however I was mostly talking about who controls what territory. I was speaking purely on the end result of effort accumulated from both sides. >it's never really been 3 to 1, the origin of the 3 to 1 thing is actually pretty interesting To me, it always seems to be common sense to assume that in order to dislodge entrenched defenders- you must create if not an overall numbers advantage, at least a positional numbers advantage. Defenders lose a lot of their advantage once they have been encircled and cornered, obviously- but we are dealing with some pretty big defensive lines where each side is trying to probe for weaknesses and of course not finding them, mostly small incremental success in finding weak spots, as is exemplified by the lines on the map.
>>14366 >because it's inching towards ukrainian exhaustion there isn't anything indicating that, currently they're at a stalemate and will continue to be so, actual front movement is so slow it's irrelevant even looking at tamescales longer than 10 years, and neither side is going to run out of men, no matter how much groupies of either side would like to imagine. the part of attrition that's much more interesting to me is materiel, where russians are suffering much more heavily, as they have very few effective pathways to maintaining or replenishing it, north korea helping out in return for massive technology transfers bought them a bit of time, but their own production hasn't been keeping up with loss rates for years now and it's showing in what they're willing to put on the frontline. that's not going to get ukraine a win btw, but it's going to slow russian offensives to a crawl until those toilet territory map memes become reality. the whole thing feels like some live action Gone with the Blastwave. ultimately this topic has become so fucking boring because what is there even to say, there's just nothing happening, early war it might've been exciting but the topic when relating to /k/ has been kept alive pretty much just because of all the board invaders/paid shills on either side using /k/ as their battlefield.
>>14369 >the part of attrition that's much more interesting to me is materiel Which raw resources are the Russians short on, when it comes to that? They have some allies they can trade with. If not, what exactly is stopping the Russians from focusing more on manufacturing to remedy those issues? Russia is fucking big dude. I know its a meme, but its true. Russia big as fuck, lots of strategic resources for military purposes and enough allies to fill in the gaps. The simple fact of the matter is that there are more Russians than there are Ukrainians, so the capability of improving the manufacture of weapons, munitions, vehicles, etc is much higher for Russia as long as they are able to get their shit together and set up that manufacturing and set up those supply chains necessary for it and if they can't, they would need an ally to fill in the gaps. They have more people, more territory and their economy has been able to withstand whatever western powers throw at it in terms of trade war tactics.. they just need to focus more on domestic manufacturing and supply chains and leveraging allies for material support. Which is a lot easier than getting them to actually send manpower to the front. Much easier to convince allies to sell you tourniquets, gauze, ammunitions, mortar shells, maybe even vehicles as opposed to actual soldiers to help with combat. I would need to research further but isn't Shahed manufacturing based in Iran? The Russians are throwing ass tons of Shahed drones at the Ukrainians on the regular. The Russians are certainly doing some of these things necessary to endure. Do you imagine that there will just be a point where Russia just runs out of artillery shells, trucks, ammo, grenades, etc? If so which of those things? Which resources do you think go first, and what evidence suggests that to you? Not being gay, just genuinely curious.
>>14370 >which raw resources are the russians short on. none at all, russia, with it's size, fertile land, and resources had the potential to become a USA-tier superpower, even after the 90's, they just didn't. they don't have a lot of high-value add industry, hell, they just don't have much industry at all period for a country their size, and most of it is raw resource extraction related industry, not manufacturing. you can't fire a gallon of crude oil, a traincar of steel ore or a can of natural gas at an enemy position (i mean you can lel but that's only on friday nights). >what exactly is stopping the russians from focusing more on manufacturing to remedy those issues? mostly dutch disease and their fucked up educational system. they can't make the tooling to even set up new factories in the first place, there's only a few countries in the world that actually make those tools and russia is no longer one of them, it's hard to understate how hard the collapse of the soviet union and the corruption that followed eroded their industrial power. >the simple fact is there are more russians than there are ukrainians and that simple fact is not enough as russians aren't exactly trading evenly with ukrainians. >as long as they are able to get their shit together i mean that's a caveat if i've ever seen one. i'm sure the US too could unfuck the loss of our industry if we could get our shit together, but that's proven to be pretty difficult even for us. >They have more people, more territory and their economy has been able to withstand whatever western powers throw at it in terms of trade war tactics. now that's where i just completely disagree, man. russia and ukraine are both cannibalising their economies alive to buy time, inflation in russia is already at apocalyptic levels and russian banks are being forced by the state to give massive loans to the defense industry that they will never ever be able to give back as a less visible way of increasing their defense budget. switching to a wartime economy is like taking a lethal dose of morphine, it'll feel good all the way up until you're in a pine box. >Do you imagine that there will just be a point where Russia just runs out of artillery shells, trucks, ammo, grenades, etc? no way in hell, they're never going to fully run out of anything, consumption will just be lowered as needed to prevent that from happening, that's been the trend since the beginning of the war. i don't doubt that russia can keep up it's current level of production, i just don't personally see them expanding it, feel like i would've seen that reflected in the field if it was. the only things they might "effectively" run out of to the point where they have like 3 or 4 of them are all the vehicles coming from their old soviet stock they just can't produce anymore like T80's an MTLB's which are hardly seen anymore.
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>>14365 >they're north korea or iran-tier North Korea and Iran don't show up on that list because they don't engage in much exporting, and what they do export isn't officially tracked. North Korea and Iran both have highly capable domestic arms industries too, they are just geared towards their needs and capabilities. Russia's arms industry is very capable, and anyone who thinks otherwise doesn't know much about the Russian arms industry, and likely very little about the global arms industry at large. Russia's arms industry is definitely in the top five globally, and where it places within that ranking depends on exactly how you measure it. >>14366 >No one seems to respect the fact that anti air systems have severely hampered air superiority. Back on 4/k/ I found it very frustrating to talk to people who would respond to any discussion of air defenses by just bringing up SEAD as if that was a Yugioh trap card that instantly removes air defenses from play at no cost to the attacker, and that any NATO military can play that card whenever they want but nobody outside of NATO has it. If you tried to explain the complexities of air and anti-air operations and how modern IADS networks are highly resistant to the sorts of SEAD operations that were successful in Yugoslavia and Iraq, they would just declare it doesn't matter, air defenses are thirdie cope, and if you can't gain complete air superiority Desert Storm style then you aren't doing war properly. I'm very glad that those people probably all went to the sharty. >The only counter argument that I could think of for the sake of steelmaning- would be that if you did have a larger air force with more air frames that was properly supported via well organized naval and ground assets, those combined capabilities might allow certain avenues to open up when it comes to launching sorties. Of course, airpower is an important component of combined arms operations. US airpower would have a major role in the conflict, but it would not be a one sided turkey shoot like Iraq or Yugoslavia, it would be a real fight. >Russia's goal was to take over and pacify Ukraine. There is little evidence to support this. There has been some discussion of it in this thread, and the most reasonable conclusions are that Russia's goal was primarily to prevent Ukraine from ever being in a position to retake Crimea. A western aligned Ukraine putting anti-ship missiles in Crimea would be an existential threat to Russia, since their only warm water port is in the Black Sea. Anything else they get out of the war is just icing on the cake. Right now it seems like Russia has mostly accomplished that goal, and is looking towards what else they can get out of the war while they are at it. The early war Kiev offensive was probably an attempt to force Ukrainian's most potent mobile units to come out and fight the Russians on their terms, along with diverting forces from the eastern route so they could secure more of it. If they actually had been greeted as liberators I'm sure they would have taken the win and paraded through Kiev, but they don't seem to have been counting on that happening. >however has been unsuccessful in pushing Russians completely out and returning to pre-war territory control. I think Ukraine is approaching a breaking point in terms of attrition. At some point Ukrainian units will be spread too thin to meaningfully defend the front and their line will collapse. Ukraine is losing the war because the longer the war goes on, the more the balance of forces will favor the Russians. >neither side has achieved the overarching strategic goal. Russia has the edge because its inching towards Ukrainian exhaustion. I agree with this completely. I say Russia is winning, not that they have won, and Ukraine is losing, not that they have lost. That being said I don't see any way Ukraine could win at this point. I don't know why they don't just sue for peace, since no matter what concessions they make, they'd be in a better position than if their lines collapse, since then there probably won't even be an independent Ukraine after the war. Personally though I hope there isn't a Ukraine after the war, but that's just to finally end the Kyiv/Kiev argument and spite the pro-Ukraine shills. >To me, it always seems to be common sense to assume that in order to dislodge entrenched defenders- you must create if not an overall numbers advantage, at least a positional numbers advantage. Defenders lose a lot of their advantage once they have been encircled and cornered, obviously- but we are dealing with some pretty big defensive lines where each side is trying to probe for weaknesses and of course not finding them, mostly small incremental success in finding weak spots, as is exemplified by the lines on the map. I'm not saying that defenders don't have a major advantage, but like I said, the 3 to 1 figure was supposed to be part of a mathematical system for comparing forces. They're called Lanchester's laws. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanchester's_laws >>14369 >there isn't anything indicating that Yes there is. Every indication is that Ukrainian units are heavily undermanned and that the problem has been steadily growing worse. We really should spend some time and actually find out everything we can about the state of Ukrainian manpower over time, rather than going in circles about this like we all have been doing. While I am sure we can't get an exact figure, we should be able to get a ballpark estimate. >materiel, where russians are suffering much more heavily I don't think that's the case at all. What would make you think that? There has been much discussion in the thread about the balance of losses, and I pointed out why visual confirmations of destroyed equipment (like from Oryx) which are typically used to support the claim that Russia is losing more materiel than Ukraine do not provide an accurate or complete picture. >their own production hasn't been keeping up with loss rates for years now I heard that claim back on 4/k/, but I remember that it seemed to be based on official Ukrainian kill claims combined with rather sketchy reporting on Russian production. I suspect that Russia's materiel attrition is not nearly as dire as it was portrayed back on 4/k/. >the whole thing feels like some live action Gone with the Blastwave. I didn't like the live action GWTB movie. It really didn't have the spirit of the webcomic and was just depressing. There is a fun mod for Cortex Command that adds the GWTB armies. > this topic has become so fucking boring because what is there even to say Because neither side is making major advances we can analyze the minutia of how a battle for a tiny one horse town goes with house by house breakdowns, without it getting drowned out in the confusion of the larger conflict. I personally have always preferred discussing smaller scale conflicts on /k/ anyway, and the Russo-Ukrainian war has the potential to be discussed like a thousand tiny conflicts going on at once. If we don't take sides then we can all just enjoy the ride and watch cool shit where stuff gets blown up and lots of weapons get used. I was trying to start a high level discussion of the war at the start to see if we could get a rough idea of the general situation before we start getting into trying to find lower level sources. I think we've all got a fairly similar idea of what was going on at this point though, so I'm going to try and find out more about the operational level the war so I can try and spur some discussions about it. Once we've got an idea about that we can look into the nitty gritty tactical level where all the exciting stuff is happening. >>14373 >mostly dutch disease and their fucked up educational system. Their lack of warm water ports is another major Achilles heel economically. >no way in hell, they're never going to fully run out of anything, consumption will just be lowered as needed to prevent that from happening, that's been the trend since the beginning of the war. I don't think that what we are seeing is the result of shortages, I think that the war has changed dramatically over time. Ukraine frankly doesn't have much major infrastructure left that warrants a long ranged missile, and artillery usage on the front lines is bottlenecked by the rate at which they can scout Ukrainian positions, move an artillery unit into position to fire upon it, fire, and reposition to avoid counter battery fire. Similarly they have stopped sending big mechanized columns on attacks in favor of using scout motorcycle companies like in WW2 to probe and only sending in tanks where they can make a real difference. So while Russia is using less materiel, it doesn't seem to be due to them running low. > they just can't produce anymore like T80's an MTLB's which are hardly seen anymore. I think T-80s aren't used much anymore because they are fuel and maintenance hogs and they aren't enough better to justify using them for the daily grind at the frontlines. T-80s will probably be used again when they decide that Ukrainian attrition has reached a level where they can make a breakthrough. I doubt they are running out of MT-LBs either, I think they are just used less because they're big drone and artillery magnets with armor that makes a BMP or M113 look like a tank. I wonder if Russia completely takes of Ukraine if they'll restart T-80 production. Probably not since I suspect they'll focus on getting the T-14 into service or develop something totally new based on the lessons of the war, but it's interesting to think about potential developments after the war.
>>14345 >wew You don't like the word that aptly describes what happened I see. >WEW, by not involving themselves and seeing the near entirerety of ukraine’s population accepting the new govt, opening relations with them? When the US Assistant Secretary of State is the one picking and choosing who is going to be in the new government, not only is that support, but outright 100% level of control. I was putting it mildly before. >basically all of this is bitchmade whining that russia gets to tantrum if it doesn’t get it’s way, that’s not the agreement. No, the agreement was broken, Russia had no more obligation to follow it. Not that agreements are some magical protection, a state will break one when they see it as beneficial, but you are just being dishonest and arguing in bad faith, as is typical from the pro-Ukraine crowd.
>>14414 >but you are just being dishonest and arguing in bad faith, as is typical from the pro-Ukraine crowd. Pot meet kettle
>>14360 You know, thinking back to it, there were no details at all that I recall of the withdrawals. They were there one day, gone the next. Like in how the Ukrainians were bragging they were going to take thousands prisoner in Herson after they wrecked the bridge. The Russians just disappeared. Of course you don't want to advertise when you'll be withdrawing so the enemy doesn't attack right then and it's sort of an embarrasment to openly discuss it, so I think that's why there weren't many details about it. >I want to find out more about the first Kerch bridge bombing. Was it a suicide bombing or what? The Ukrainians hired a transport company and loaded explosives in rolls of film so the x-ray didn't see through them. Then they detonated the truck on the bridge killing the driver and a random passerby car with 4 people.
>>14373 The other guy is much too kind to you, you don't know shit and write such retarded shit, it makes me wonder about humanity. You have no independent thought or ability to reason, otherwise you wouldn't have written something so stupid. Can't make tooling?! It's the ball bearing story all over again, except even stupider this time. Jesus Christ.
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>>14414 What's going on in that clip? The RGD-5s and the climbing gear make me imagine somebody had a plan that was inspired by the Boondock Saints. >>14419 >there were no details at all that I recall of the withdrawals I suspect there were barely any details, but Ukraine was claiming to have captured a gorillion abandooned tanks and stuff, so they maybe there is enough information out there that if I research into it enough and read between the lines I could find out more about what actually happened. >The Ukrainians hired a transport company and loaded explosives in rolls of film so the x-ray didn't see through them. ngl that's pretty lulzy. >>14468 2/10, would be a 4/10 if the ai voice was better, and a 7/10 if it the instrument being played poorly was an accordion. To get to 10/10 it'd have to not be incredibly butthurt.
My current outlook is that a Russian strategic defeat is probably imminent, but exactly when I can’t say, I can only point out patterns and trends. The key trend is that Putin appears to have dropped the Russian military and MIC as a focus last year. Why I don’t know — probably there was only so much he could flog out of a peasant military and a MIC which had languished under corruption and apathy for decades. All the big moves Russia was making in the military and industrial spheres have petered out and the war seems to have stagnated into the current form. In fact the scale of Russia’s operations have actually gone DOWN. Earlier in the wait it was reported that Putin was dealing with operational planning PERSONALLY — what happened with that? What happened to all the aggressive purging of officers, to large and immediate changes to deal with the immediate shortfalls and problems? It feels like Putin has let the military go to do what it’s comfortable doing and that’s all. On the industrial side of things, there were big aggressive moves being made like the courts seizing MIC companies from corrupt owners, huge production and investment announcements. Aggressive technological advancement across the board, big increases in domestic MIC part production, etc and so on. New tanks, new missiles, new guns, etc etc — where are they? Why hasn’t cruise missile production DRAMATICALLY increased? Why isn’t Kiev a pile of rubble by now? Everything their MIC needs is available via sanction evasion networks and China, there’s no excuse. Putin appears to have dropped the MIC as one of his priorities too. WHY he’s given up on these areas I don’t know. My guess is, as stated above, he’s not powerful enough to launch a WW2-level purge and reorganization of the both the military and the MIC. Maybe he’s flogged them as hard as he could and decided it was no longer worth the political capital (which is energy money in Putin’s system). The problem is, if it’s not to win the war and force the Ukrainian government to collapse, then how is he going to secure the PIPELINE access to Europe? Power of Siberia 2 is stalled (last I checked) thanks to sanction efforts and China being non-comital. The West’s actions against the shadow fleet is mounting and taking shape, it’s not going to operate freely for much longer. Frankly it looks bad on the strategic level which si why it makes me forecast a Russian defeat. Even if Russia keeps all the lan it’s taken so far that is irrelevant to Putin and not what this war is about. Putin CANT let go of the European energy market, there’s NO realistic replacement. But, if he’s forced to let go of it because his military wasn’t able to get a win when he desperately needed it, then what does that look like? A retirement of some kind with a transition to someone in the dynasty? I don’t know. My guess is some interesting moves will come out o Russia in the coming weeks or months to give us a hint.
>>14599 >Why hasn't Putin forced the russian MIC to do X Because the russian MIC couldn't even if there was a gun to its head. >What's Putin planning for His foreign assets to somehow deliver a W into his lap >European energy markets There is no reality in which Europeans get back on the russian gas supply while russia continues to exist in its current state. You only get to pull a move like directly weaponizing your trade once, and if it doesn't work you're shit out of luck. Since the russians have shown they don't think things like treaties and contracts are worth the paper they're written on no western company is going to base its future success on them honoring either. >Siberian pipeline 2 Chiang Kai Shek boogaloo The Chinese are noncommittal because even they see how corrupt and incompetent the russians are and know that unless they built it themselves it's going to come in ten years late at twenty times the original cost. They also don't see the value in directly pulling western sanctions down on their heads for something that will require a long enough time frame to complete that by the time it's done the wells that supply it (which rely on western equipment) might be inoperable, or the government that controls it might no longer be friendly. Much better to wait until the inevitable collapse and power struggle after Putin acks it, seize eastern Siberia, and build it out themselves.
>>14486 You always need rope. You can do many... things with it. >claiming to have captured a gorillion abandooned tanks and stuff, That was Lyman, where they actually did capture a wealth of equipment. Whole staging areas of vehicles.
>>14599 PipelineSchizo, I always resisted the urge to respond to you back on 4/k/, but I've really gotta know. Are you a diagnosed schizophrenic? Because your posts sometimes make me think you might actually be schizophrenic, not just because of what you say but how you say it. I am a bit of a connoisseur of internet schizophrenia, and you write a lot like the sorts of people who make blogs about beings from Andromeda or how hospitals a conspiracy to steal your organs and replace them with fakes. Not that you're on that level of crazy or anything, you just write in a similar way and are prone to... flights of fancy. >>14601 dude, I'm trying to be nice to you since I think you're sincerely mistaken and just have a lot of confirmation bias to overcome, but have you noticed that the only person who agrees with you in this thread is someone who clearly has a tenuous grip on reality? Fantasies that Russia is going to collapse on its own are completely disconnected from reality. You've never even postulated how you think Ukraine could win the war. If you can envision some path to victory for them, please tell us, but if it's "Russia will just collapse politically/economically due to internal problems" then explain how the hell you expect that to happen. >>14604 >You always need rope. That reminds me, I need to check out /tg/ here.
>>14678 The pro-Ukraine crowd drank ALL the Kool-Aid. Russia can't make tooling. Russia will collapse for the third year in a row because the Ruble is rubble. Russia ran out of missiles and steals washing machines for chips, but they can't make new stuff anyway and the Kievan spectre shot them all down. The infantry is charging ahead with shovels. Putin shat himself and had a stroke, but it's his body double anyway because he died ages ago and the oligarchs will kill him soon after he gets coup'd by the army. The funniest thing is he says Russia will collapse, while the US is inches away from pulling support because Zelensky keeps refusing to play ball.
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>>14687 >The pro-Ukraine crowd drank ALL the Kool-Aid. They even sometimes made their own Flavor-Aid when they ran out of the official Ukrainian government produced Kool-Aid. I remember a few days before 4chan finally died they were claiming footage of an airstrike by Russia was evidence of Russian incompetence because they missed a dam, but if you looked closely at the footage, there was no dam, and when somebody posted satellite images of the location there was very clearly an intersection in the road right where the bomb hit. >Russia will collapse for the third year in a row because the Ruble is rubble. Russia ran out of missiles and steals washing machines for chips, but they can't make new stuff anyway and the Kievan spectre shot them all down. I find it really interesting how they reconcile their memories that they used to believe things that later were demonstrated to be completely wrong. For instance claims that Russia will run out of missiles have become Zenos missile paradox. The Ghost of Kiev is now Russian propaganda rather than Ukrainian. I don't think they've been confronted with enough evidence they can't ignore about Russian production to need to come up with a doublethink rationalization for it, but I'm sure it'd be fascinating. It's actually an important reminder that being smart doesn't mean you can't be wrong, and smart people are much better at rationalizing away discrepancies in their beliefs. I don't think that the pro-Ukraine guy here is stupid, in fact he seems to be quite smart. He displays incredible mental agility when it comes to rationalizing the contradictions between what he sees and what he already has decided will be proven true in the end. I think when he misunderstands arguments he would have trouble countering he isn't even doing that as part of a conscious strategy of deception, I think he's doing it on a subconscious level. I'm reminded of a passage from 1984: <A Party member is expected to have no private emotions and no respites from enthusiasm. He is supposed to live in a continuous frenzy of hatred of foreign enemies and internal traitors, triumph over victories, and self-abasement before the power and wisdom of the Party. The discontents produced by his bare, unsatisfying life are deliberately turned outwards and dissipated by such devices as the Two Minutes Hate, and the speculations which might possibly induce a sceptical or rebellious attitude are killed in advance by his early acquired inner discipline. The first and simplest stage in the discipline, which can be taught even to young children, is called, in Newspeak, CRIMESTOP. CRIMESTOP means the faculty of stopping short, as though by instinct, at the threshold of any dangerous thought. It includes the power of not grasping analogies, of failing to perceive logical errors, of misunderstanding the simplest arguments if they are inimical to Ingsoc, and of being bored or repelled by any train of thought which is capable of leading in a heretical direction. CRIMESTOP, in short, means protective stupidity. But stupidity is not enough. On the contrary, orthodoxy in the full sense demands a control over one's own mental processes as complete as that of a contortionist over his body. Oceanic society rests ultimately on the belief that Big Brother is omnipotent and that the Party is infallible. But since in reality Big Brother is not omnipotent and the party is not infallible, there is need for an unwearying, moment-to-moment flexibility in the treatment of facts. The keyword here is BLACKWHITE. Like so many Newspeak words, this word has two mutually contradictory meanings. Applied to an opponent, it means the habit of impudently claiming that black is white, in contradiction of the plain facts. Applied to a Party member, it means a loyal willingness to say that black is white when Party discipline demands this. But it means also the ability to BELIEVE that black is white, and more, to KNOW that black is white, and to forget that one has ever believed the contrary. This demands a continuous alteration of the past, made possible by the system of thought which really embraces all the rest, and which is known in Newspeak as DOUBLETHINK. What is that launcher in your clip? That's a big explosion from just one rocket, is it a TOS? Shit, I keep thinking of more things I need to look into from early in the war, like the Chernobyl stuff, and I should probably look into the Moskva sinking since they always bring that up as if to go "see, the Russians were just as annoying as us, we were just ruining the board for 3 years in defense". There's definitely also stuff I never even heard of because I tuned out the war pretty early on to protect my sanity.
>>14709 Speaking of Chernobyl, all the soldiers died because they dug the trenches in irradiated soil. Nuclear scientists who say that's retarded are all on Russia's payroll, okay? Personally I always thought Orwell was overly-dramatizing, no human being would ever come to such a point of self-delusion. Not even in the staunchest communism which he was caricaturing did people act in such a manner. But then I read /k/. >What is that launcher in your clip? Indeed it is a TOS-2 on a truck. I think that bigger blast is probably a secondary. But since you mention an airstrike, this vid is a few weeks old, or rather it was published a few weeks ago and there was lots of speculation about it. What's your opinion? CGI fakery? Early war? Anyone else with actual verifiable info feel free to chime in.
>>14709 Forgot to say, there was very few details from the Moskva sinking. Ukraine said it used Neptune missiles, while Russia without denying it got hit, said it sank later on due to the fire. There was also a vid of it on fire, but that was about it. A lot later some unverified info came out that the ship was not in a battle-ready state at all with radars not operating and other stuff lacking spare parts and repair, but take that with a grain of salt.
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>>14730 >Speaking of Chernobyl, all the soldiers died because they dug the trenches in irradiated soil. It's interesting how consistently the narrative that Russians are incompetent is pushed. If they were as buffoonishly inept as they are portrayed, it'd be unlikely that any of them managed to survive to adulthood to even fight in the war. It feels like every single piece of news about the war is somehow used as further evidence of Russian incompetence, no matter how much of an absurd stretch it takes. If Russia hits something with an unguided bomb, that's proof that they are too stupid to make guided bombs, if they hit something with a guided bomb, it's proof that they can't SEAD, if they destroy an air defense battery, it's proof they suck because they did it wrong, they should have just done SEAD, which is a magic spell that makes air defenses disappear. >What's your opinion? I really don't know, but I can add to the speculation. I think that the missile is the most interesting part. It's obviously not a MANPADS or a long ranged system like an S-300 or PATRIOT, but it also doesn't look quite like a medium ranged system like BUK. Ukraine doesn't have a lot of SHORAD, but using them to protect the western volunteers seems plausible. My gut says Crotale, but I don't have anything to back that up other than eliminating pretty much every other system I can think of. I suspect that it wouldn't be a radar guided system, since that would probably draw too much attention on the front lines. Maybe that Gravehawk thing the bongs made, that might look kinda like what we saw. Another possibility is that was filmed further behind Ukrainian lines than we'd expect at first blush, and that's a medium ranged SAM that was fired around when the bombs dropped, and it's on its sustainer phase. Its trajectory could be explained by the Sukhoi pulling up after it is no longer in frame, and the missile was tracking the Sukhoi as it gained altitude. An interesting thing to note is that the response time for the SAM was rather slow, if it was a SHORAD system, since it would have been about 15 seconds from the time the Sukhoi passed nearly overhead of the SAM to when they finally launched. That could be a sign that it was a radar guided system but they had the radar switched off and it took time to boot up. I'll be honest I don't know enough about radars to offer much info there. > CGI fakery? Early war? Could be, maybe even a combination of things. Like a video of an airstrike that wasn't released for a while that Ukrainian information warfare people dubbed in English voices and added the missile for some reason. I don't know what the motivation to fake it would be, and I can't see any obvious signs of it being fake, so I'm going to guess it's real. It is a little weird that the camera looks in the direction the missile is coming from seemingly right after it's launched. >>14734 >Forgot to say, there was very few details from the Moskva sinking. Ukraine said it used Neptune missiles, while Russia without denying it got hit, said it sank later on due to the fire. There was also a vid of it on fire, but that was about it. So did Russia ever even officially say the whole "returned to port under its own power" thing that is constantly used as an example of Russian lies? Because I looked up the some combinations of keywords, like "returned port power" and "under own power" on desuarchive starting from the date of the sinking, and literally every example of the phrase being used is people claiming Russian shills were spouting that line. Is that video Shahed drones?
>>14797 >So did Russia ever even officially say the whole "returned to port under its own power" thing that is constantly used as an example of Russian lies? rumod officially claimed the fires had been contained, there was no ammunition detonation, the ship retained buoyancy, and it was being towed back, and then later that it sunk under tow due to a fire from ammunition detonation and heavy weather "under its own power" was specifically the pro-russia twitter retard brigade, who were probably doing it for free and probably getting the claim from russian telegram channels
>>14797 When the same verbatim message is parroted by dozens of supposedly organic telegram groups minutes apart from each other, it's pretty damn near official communication. The stuff comes from above. See also: "There is no panic."
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>>14808 >>14811 So the justification for ruining /k/ for 3 years was "some retards on twitter and telegram said something"? Goddamn I hate those newfags even more, since whenever they justify their actions they go "well the Russians were shilling too, remember how they said the Moskva returned to port under its own power? That totally gave us the right to ruin /k/ for 3 years straight". I hope Russia doesn't agree to any peace deal and just conquers the whole country, renames every city after collaborators, gulags the men, gives the women as brides to Russian war criminals, and repopulates the entire region with Russians who hate Ukrainians. Not because I give a fuck about Ukraine, but because it'd be fucking funny.
>>14819 Your narrative is as synthetic as the opioids you snort.
>>14829 what narrative? That you assholes have been shitting up /k/ with retarded bullshit for the last 3 years?
>>14831 >I’ll shit up this discussion because I’m butthurt It was pretty tame earlier here but you ain’t helping
>>14486 Whole of slavic world is pozzed at Russia. The drunk scumbag trailer park next door. Boys thumbs up on cool soviet gear but you're negrofaggots.
>>14797 Some russians said it at first then a million people mocked it, that's why it seems that way. Not many rus shills all said it.
>>14797 This board is so fucking reactionary to 10% of /k that was tolerated out of entertainment. It's not hard to conclude that: 1- russia doesn't talk about chernobyl much if at all 2- "bad stuff happened a long time ago" is a magic memory hole to anyone 3- you dig because you're told to dig by a guy who got told to dig by a guy who's ass isn't on the line 4-russians irradiated themselves That's all we got and it's almost ordinary incompetence.
>>14797 The long response time of the missile might be because they turn off their radars. Despite the memes, Russia can and does SEAD combat air patrols all the time. Vids related, H-31P anti-radiation missiles on the planes. It does look very real, too real to be fakery, but I doubt Russia does much CAS these days, so maybe earlier in the war. >So did Russia ever even officially say the whole "returned to port under its own power" No, I don't know the origin of that bullshit. It might have been a pro-Russia shill, as they can get pretty retarded too. Yes, that was Shaheeds being successfully intercepted by a target in Odessa last month.
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Fuck, missed one
>>14865 >was tolerated out of entertainment. Is that why any Russian content was banned on sight? >russians irradiated themselves https://without-lie.info/propaganda-stop/feyk-chutky-pro-te-shcho-rosiyskykh-viyskovykh-shcho-znakhodylysya-u-chornobyli-vid-pochatku-zakhoplennya-mista-vyvezly-do-bilorusi-iz-oznakamy-promenevoyi-khvoroby/amp/ <Thus, we will get an average dose of 185 μSv/h (microGray per hour), and in terms of a month, if they do not get out of there, it will be 0.13 Sv. In order to feel fatigue and nausea - symptoms of radiation sickness - you need to get 1 Sv per day. Pro-Ukrainian source by the way.
>>14709 >there was no dam there absolutely was, if you want to whine about the technicality of whether or not it's a "dyke" and not a dam you're retarded. there was a raised land obstruction keeping water from flooding a bunch of land. god feels like half the posts in this place now are a reactionary retcon of things that did infact actually happen. >For instance claims that Russia will run out of missiles have become Zenos missile paradox. i remember people pretty clearly explaining the difference between >running out and >ran out and people trying very hard to ignore former because it was invalidating their strawman of this argument. >>14687 >russia can't make tooling this is pretty true though, this isn't even bullying poor little russia, this is literally a fact for over 95% of the world. there is only a very small amount of countries that can build the machine that makes the machine, mostly the US, germany, france, china and japan.
>>14866 >russia can and does SEAD patrols all the time if they were any good at it and had equipment to match that doctrine, they would actually have gotten air superiority over ukraine. that's the reason people are glazing air defence systems so hard these days. they refuse to understand that this war doesn't necessarily inform how wars are fought, it's a product of the circumstances it's being fought in. one of those circumstances is that both countries have crap airforces and barely any of the training and equipment needed for proper SEAD, and good air defence with proper coverage (relatively speaking.
>>14932 >i remember people pretty clearly explaining the difference between >running out >ran out So running out for 3 years apparently without the ability to manufacture new ones... when do they run out? >this is pretty true though No it's not. When you say a spacefaring country can't make tooling, it's not just plain old butthurt over Russia, that's mental retardation.
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>>14865 >This board is so fucking reactionary to 10% of /k that was tolerated out of entertainment. It wasn't tolerated out of entertainment, anyone who disagreed with you morons got banned. The reaction you're seeing here is /k/ being finally free to say what we've felt for years. >>14866 >The long response time of the missile might be because they turn off their radars. Yeah, the more I think about it the more likely that seems. >Despite the memes, Russia can and does SEAD combat air patrols all the time. Yeah, I'm well aware that Russia isn't retarded and can do SEAD. Hence my initial gut feeling that it might be a Crotale. >Vids related, H-31P anti-radiation missiles on the planes. The NAFO crowd pretty obviously thinks that SEAD is a magic spell that causes IADS to disappear. I'm well aware that Russia is capable of conducting SEAD operations. >but I doubt Russia does much CAS these days, so maybe earlier in the war. So one thought that occurred to me after I made that post is that you can't see the Sukhoi's wingman. Perhaps they are doing the classic SEAD tactic of having one plane bait the SAMs into switching on their radars, and the wingman was flying higher and further back to monitor for radars coming online and fire an anti-radiation missile at them. >>14932 >there absolutely was, if you want to whine about the technicality of whether or not it's a "dyke" and not a dam you're retarded. Picrel is supposedly a FAB-500 crater, a dam can be destroyed by an explosion that size, but a FAB-500 wouldn't move enough earth to flood the surrounding area. You seem to be caught in a mental feedback loop, where everything you see is evidence of Russian incompetence, so when you see something new you find a way to turn it into evidence of Russian incompetence. >i remember people pretty clearly explaining the difference between running out and ran out and people trying very hard to ignore former because it was invalidating their strawman of this argument. Here's the rub: that doesn't make you right that Russia is running out of missiles, since they pretty obviously aren't. They still launch hundreds of missiles each month, with spikes and dips in usage coinciding with operational requirements, and an overall downward trend which corresponds to the fact that their campaign has been successful enough that Ukraine now has less infrastructure left that's worth hitting. >there is only a very small amount of countries that can build the machine that makes the machine, mostly the US, germany, france, china and japan. Depends on what kind of tooling you're referring to. Russia can make a lot of types of tooling just fine. >>14933 Since you seem to think that being good at SEAD means you can gain air supremacy over any adversary, please give me a detailed description about how you imagine USAF SEAD operations against Russian air defenses would be conducted in a hypothetical US intervention in Ukraine. I expect you to tell me what air bases the operations would be launched from, how many planes of which types would be involved, how many sorties would be needed, what the Russian Aerospace Forces are expected to be doing in response, and most importantly how they would locate, identify, and suppress/destroy each element of Russia's IADS without being shot down. Don't dodge this, if you think you know enough about air defenses and SEAD to say the shit you just said, then you had better prove you're a fucking expert.
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>>14965 >where everything you see is evidence of Russian incompetence so what was the purpose of bombing fucking ground? What a retarded zigur lol lmao even
>>14958 >spacefaring country can’t make tooling Maybe you forgot about the fact that they were once a foremost superpower, they have a lot of legacy equipment lying around, it’s why they’re still able to make things in the factories that weren’t disassembled and sold off during the 90’s. There’s massive metal forming presses from the 1950’s still in operation in the US, same for russia. Many of these expensive specialized factory toolings are exceptional archeotech in russia, they’re not making more of them, which is why new large production lines for complex equipment like tanks is completely off the table for them, hell, it’s off the table for a lot of countries.
>>14975 What tooling do you think they need but can't make or buy?
>>14965 >and an overall downward trend which corresponds to the fact that their campaign has been successful enough Jesus anon, you’re really trying the >”heh, i was only using 30% of my power” explanation? come on man that’s weak, reads like a “gesture of goodwill” level copout explanation. ukraine has plenty of both civilian and military infrastructure they could strike, ukraine’s powergrid is still up, their airbases and other military installations are still functional, and that’s just the static targets russia would be able to consistently send munitions to one location with, because they also use random roads as landing strips and service aircraft there, and most of their newer munitions factories, equipment depots and repair installations are spread out and very well concealed. The reality is these strikes are just not always that effective because GLONASS’ worse CEP along with jamming has made these ballistic and cruise missiles inconsistently accurate. Ukraine has TOO many targets to hit and their production is bottlenecking and possibly floundering because of lack or components, either that or they’re storing up munitions for when they might actually have something that absolutely needs them.
>>14933 Except they do have air superiority by textbook definition. Air superiority does not mean uncontested skies by enemy AA. And since Ukraine keeps getting supplied with AA, the skies will never be uncontested. Not to mention the info being relayed to Ukraine by foreign radar coverage, Russia literally can't eliminate the integrated air defense coverage without starting WW3.
>>14975 What legacy Soviet equipment made the new domestic jet airliner they launched two days ago? This is a country that when they lost a cosmodrome, went and built another with all the specialized shit that entails. When they lost the Ukrainian engines for their helis, they went and built their own. A country that builds satellites, nuclear reactors, everything... can't make tooling. Mental retardation.
>>14965 >Perhaps they are doing the classic SEAD tactic of having one plane bait the SAMs into switching on their radars, and the wingman was flying higher and further back to monitor for radars coming online and fire an anti-radiation missile at them. I guess, but flying low specifically avoids radars and opens it up to ground fire where a Ukrainian grandpa can shoot it down and win a medal. I think those are done in a different manner, as in the plane goes high up and exposes itself at the edge of the engagement envelope where it has time to book it out of there and maneuver to exhaust the missile's energy.
>>14977 >Jesus anon, you’re really trying the ”heh, i was only using 30% of my power” explanation? No, I'm saying that when they are planning a strike, they allocate enough munitions to get what they consider to be an acceptable chance of striking their target. After a strike they need to figure out if they hit it, and if they did they need to figure out whether they damaged it adequately before deciding whether to try hitting it again. What they don't do is have someone go AAAHHH MOTHERLAND and then pressing a big red button to fire all the missiles. >ukraine has plenty of both civilian and military infrastructure they could strike yes, but there is a lot less of it than there used to be. >ukraine’s powergrid is still up, their airbases and other military installations are still functional, and that’s just the static targets russia would be able to consistently send munitions to one location with Striking Ukraine's civilian infrastructure isn't going to do all that much to reduce their ability to continue fighting, since they mostly aren't making their own weapons except the drones, which require minimal infrastructure. >The reality is these strikes are just not always that effective because GLONASS’ worse CEP along with jamming has made these ballistic and cruise missiles inconsistently accurate. If they fire enough missiles to compensate for CEP issues and interception, but don't destroy the target increasing the number of missiles in that salvo is unlikely to increase the odds much further, since there will be plenty of shared factors in strike success, like if their targeting data is wrong, or electronic warfare is screwing with the missiles, or the target turns out to be hardened and they're going to need to use something with a bigger warhead to have the desired effect. >because they also use random roads as landing strips and service aircraft there, and most of their newer munitions factories, equipment depots and repair installations are spread out and very well concealed. are you suggesting that the correct way to deal with that would be to simply fling missiles around at random? Those things are just more reasons why Russia isn't firing as many missiles, rather than evidence that Russia is running out of missiles. The intelligence cycle of strategic missile operations is easy to forget about, but it's probably the biggest bottleneck here. >>14982 I resisted mentioning that because I was hoping he'd tell us all about how SEAD operations work in his mind. I suspect he has a mental picture of multirole jets launching anti-radiation missiles at isolated systems which they already know the location of and are just sitting in the open with their radars switched on. Maybe one step more complex than that, but I don't think he has any idea how modern integrated air defense systems work, and how SEAD operations are actually conducted. >>14989 >I guess, but flying low specifically avoids radars and opens it up to ground fire where a Ukrainian grandpa can shoot it down and win a medal. Yeah, it'd be crazy, although if the sound is synced up properly that Sukhoi is about 2km from the camera, and it's high enough that it'd have a bit of warning if a MANPADS was fired at it even from directly below. If that is what they did, it'd need to be a section of the front they've thoroughly reconnoitered and know where the Ukrainian positions are, so they would have picked an approach vector that minimized their amount of time they were in MANPADS range of any individual Ukrainian position, and the bombing target they picked was inside a treeline, so the target itself would have had very little time between getting a clear view of the jet and experiencing a significant emotional event that would make it difficult to effectively operate a MANPADS. >I think those are done in a different manner, as in the plane goes high up and exposes itself at the edge of the engagement envelope where it has time to book it out of there and maneuver to exhaust the missile's energy. I think the only reason to do a low altitude bombing run like that at this stage in the war is if that SHORAD battery was a real thorn in their side, and it wasn't taking the bait when they tried the usual tricks. I think they knew there was a SHORAD system somewhere in that area, but between camouflage and being repositioned regularly they couldn't pin its location down exactly enough at any given time to just hit it with artillery or something. So they have one plane go in and bomb a Ukrainian position in the area at an altitude where long ranged systems can't target him, while his wingman is far enough away that the SHORAD battery isn't going to know it's there until after its switched on its radar. This is all just theorycrafting though. Do you know if there are any maps which have information about air defense coverage? Even if it's out of date or of dubious accuracy it'd still be interesting to see and might help give an idea of what happened here. I'm guessing the footage hasn't been geolocated.
>>14996 No pictures of that, but there was an interesting picture posted of the Ukrainian view of the skies.
>>15001 >windows with none of the malware removed Jesus Christ, it's amazing Russia hasn't completely wiped them out yet. Any idea what the pink dots are? >No pictures of that I remember that one leak from the Texan nasty girl early in the war supposedly had information about their air defense coverage. I'm still finding good sources for war updates, but I think I remember a map shown in some youtube video had circles showing estimated S-300 and Patriot coverage. I'll have to look for it.
>>14982 Posting here with 4chan coming back is kind of a waste of time because this site missed its window of opportunity to bring in enough bandwidth, but oh well. The reason why the Russians can’t do SEAD isn’t because of ww3, it’s because they don’t have the officer corps required to develop modern SEAD doctrines and train pilots on them, arrange all the logistics and operational elements, etc, to do SEAD. Just doing daily glide bomb releases is the maximum extent of the Russian military’s organizational power.
>>15009 >Posting here with 4chan coming back is kind of a waste of time I'm not going back, and I think a lot of us aren't. >The reason why the Russians can’t do SEAD Russia does do SEAD though. > it’s because they don’t have the officer corps required to develop modern SEAD doctrines and train pilots on them, arrange all the logistics and operational elements, etc, to do SEAD. You've demonstrated a comical lack of understanding about modern air and anti-air operations and of what Russia is and isn't capable of. You probably think that if you just stick to sweeping generalizations you can hide your ignorance, but it's pretty clear you haven't got a clue how SEAD operations are conducted beyond a vague idea that Anti-Radiation missiles are somehow involved.
>>15017 Russia runs a peasant military. The Air Force is an elite branch, not peasants, but the very weak officer corps results in a weak organization. Modern military operations require a huge amount of coordination between many different moving parts simultaneously and in an on-going deterministic manner. That’s simply beyond the Russian military. So all they can do is somehow keep their airframes slapped together and transport basic logistics just enough to do daily sorties dropping bombs. They can’t even conduct large scale bombing ops. Peasant militaries are characterized by not only having low-IQ (ie peasant) soldiers but also by the lack of a large, advanced officer corps. 90% of the strength of the US military is it’s massive, highly developed officer corps which keeps the massive machine working. You’re denying this because the truth makes you feel bad. I’m sorry it’s just reality. If the USAF was magically in charge of Russia’s Air Force, Russia would attain complete and overwhelming air supremacy in a month or two (if the Russian MIC could keep up with the op tempo of course). Russia is just BAD at war. Most countries are in fact, it’s not just Russia. For example, Israel’s peasant army completely failed at completing an ethnic cleansing so exactly the same reason why the Russian military fails to break through and overwhelm the UA. Peasant militaries have an AWFUL track record in modern war.
>>15020 You have no understanding of military affairs, you just dress up your fantasies of racial hierarchy in military language. I'm not going to respond to you further. >>15001 I hope this thread attracts some more participants, you're cool but this other guy is fucking retarded and we need to stop feeding the trolls.
>>15021 Look just go back to 4chan, plenty of your fellow low-IQs to enjoy social reinforcement with. The site died the instant 4chan came back because they couldn’t tolerate the awful performance for one moment longer than absolutely necessary. Social feedback is literally the reason why most people come to these boards in the first place as you’ve clearly demonstrated.
>>14982 they clearly don't otherwise they would be able to leverage it. ultimately this is a ground war, it'd look very different with actual competent airforces at play.
>>15020 i don't think they would gain air superiority even then, because lack of training hours (this was an issue long before the war btw, russian airforce was struggling to keep enough airframes in the air to get pilots meeting their needed flight hours, they also had a shortage of pilots to begin with) that's not the only issue. it's an equipment issue as well, russia just doesn't have doctrinally appropriate equipment in sufficient numbers to conduct a proper SEAD campaign. they don't have a lot of anti-radiation missiles and their command and control and intelligence gathering cycle is evidently too slow to keep up with dispersing AA forces (i think a big part of this is the smaller amount of signals detection equipment and satellites in their arsenal) in the way the US was able to with iraq, which had much denser anti-air coverage than ukraine and many of the same tactics for fighting against SEAD campaigns.
>>15017 even during the vietnam war, which was probably one of the easiest theaters of war to conduct anti-air operations out of due to all the concealment, the US was already figuring out how to deal with anti-air. turning your radar off and changing position every once in a while is not the magic bullet you seem to think it is, because if you're forced to do that enough, SEAD works as planned and you don't functionally have an air defence to speak of, it's been forced into hiding and air operations can continue as normal with minimal interference from you. russia did not do this in ukraine, because it's not capable of doing so, where another country might be. russia's airforce actively tries to avoid any AA period and makes minimal attempts to surpress them, same for ukraine against russia only firing a ballistic missile or two when a battery is caught lacking. you don't have air superiority if you can't even fly regularly to do ops over the enemy country. if this was the US airforce against ukraine, supply lines to ukraine's front would be getting constantly disrupted because nowhere is safe, storage depots would be getting hit constantly. they and other locations of operation would also be getting detected faster because you've literally got aircraft flying overhead doing constant reconnaissance, and "close" air support would make holding a position even behind the lines very oppressive. no, manpads don't solve that issue either because close air support just means the support fire is close to friendly forces, not necessarily the aircraft, a b1 dropping jdams can do CAS just fine. if you ask me this whole thing just seems like a way of dealing with the fact that you don't like how oppressive western airpower can be, so you will it out of existence and pretend it's irrelevant. SEAD is not some rinky dink little tactic that's going out of style, it's how you make life near-impossible for the enemy by actually allowing your airframes to do work without quickly losing them, there's a reason why the US focuses on it to the extent that it does, china has a similarly dense AA network to deal with and they're planning on handling it the same way.
>>14985 I remember last year someone on 4/k/ claiming with a straight face that Russia can't make new artillery barrels because they're some kind of super secret alien technology
>>15030 they can, just not enough to keep up with demand. that's why the new korean arty's been such a godsend for them, it's a temporary patch for some of the bleeding their arty forces are suffering due to insufficient replacement barrels and western style counter-battery arty.
>>15026 >they clearly don't otherwise they would be able to leverage it. They do leverage it though. They do air strikes pretty much constantly. Meanwhile Ukraine's air force is mostly relegated to shooting down Shaheds. >>15027 >because lack of training hours They've been at war for 3 years now doing nearly constant sorties. Their pilots have plenty of flight hours at this point. >russia just doesn't have doctrinally appropriate equipment in sufficient numbers to conduct a proper SEAD campaign. You know, whenever I hear that sort of claim, I try to get the person who made it to give me an idea of how much they know about modern air and anti-air operations or see if they know much about how modern IADS operate. For some reason you guys never answer. The guy you're responding to didn't when I asked him. Something tells me you know fucking nothing. >>15028 >the vietnam war The USAF took extremely heavy casualties from AA during that war, and IADS have become much more advanced since then. >turning your radar off and changing position every once in a while is not the magic bullet you seem to think it is If you think that's all IADS networks can do to defend themselves you've outed yourself as not knowing enough about the topic to have an opinion. >because if you're forced to do that enough, SEAD works as planned and you don't functionally have an air defence to speak of, it's been forced into hiding and air operations can continue as normal with minimal interference from you. A modern IADS does not keep all of their radars switched on most of the time. You're demonstrating incredible ignorance of how the landscape has changed in the last 50 years. >russia did not do this in ukraine, because it's not capable of doing so, where another country might be. russia's airforce actively tries to avoid any AA period and makes minimal attempts to surpress them, same for ukraine against russia only firing a ballistic missile or two when a battery is caught lacking. you don't have air superiority if you can't even fly regularly to do ops over the enemy country. every single part of this is wrong except that Russia's air force avoids being shot down. >supply lines to ukraine's front would be getting constantly disrupted because nowhere is safe, storage depots would be getting hit constantly. That's happening right now with Russia against Ukraine, so I don't know what you think that proves. >close air support just means the support fire is close to friendly forces The level of ignorance you project onto people who know more than you is insulting. The truly frustrating thing though is that you obviously don't know how much you don't know. Your problem isn't just being wrong on one or two points, it's that you fundamentally don't understand the entire topic, which is to say that you don't need to be corrected, you need an education. If you would like, I am willing to take the time and make a reading list of books that would help you understand the topic. >if you ask me this whole thing just seems like a way of dealing with the fact that you don't like how oppressive western airpower can be I didn't ask you. Anyone who would ask you is a fucking moron. You just spew ignorant nonsense and don't even know how much you don't know. >SEAD is not some rinky dink little tactic that's going out of style SEAD isn't a panacea, or a magic spell that makes air defenses disappear. It's a complex and extremely difficult component of an air campaign that needs to be performed nearly continuously in order to enable exploitation of contested airspace. It's also something you clearly know nothing about.
>>15030 a few weeks ago on 4/k/ I saw a whole thread about how Ukraine was now making more artillery than Russia and that they had fire superiority over the whole front. I suspect that if Ukraine falls they will declare that by being annexed Ukraine has conquered Russia from within.
>>15046 I could go into a long effortpost about how the different components of a modern SEAD campaign works, explaining in detail key subjects like No-Escape-Zone, ESM, sensors and their interactions / weaknesses, SEAD campaigns in history, C4 issues, etc and so on. I won’t. Why? Because YOU DON’T CARE You’re just here to feel good, and nothing I post will make you interested in learning. I’ll post about it if anyone is actually interested — it’s just that you clearly are not.
>>15008 >Any idea what the pink dots are? No idea, the post didn't come with an explanation. Though maybe AA assets? They're spaced out far enough to cover the whole territory, maybe just the radar emissions of all AA. No idea, if there's any NATO golems that recognize the software and icons, they can chime in. I suppose the blue lines are the air defense sectors of responsibility maybe. >I remember that one leak from the Texan nasty girl early in the war You mean the Air National Guardsman what's his face? I didn't see the source leaks, just a whole bunch of second-hand reports mostly focused on the casualty numbers, so that one missed me.
>>15009 We couldn't be posting this on 4chan, so it's a moot point. And you keep saying they can't do SEAD, even though that's exactly what they're doing, then rationalizing it with some bullshit. The only thing about the whole SEAD argument that holds true is that Russia cannot match US capabilities.
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>>15050 >I could go into a long effortpost about how the different components of a modern SEAD campaign works, explaining in detail key subjects like No-Escape-Zone, ESM, sensors and their interactions / weaknesses, SEAD campaigns in history, C4 issues, etc and so on. I won’t. Why? Because you'd just embarrass yourself further. You don't know shit and that's emphasized by the fact that you thought that you could show off your knowledge with a collection of buzzwords that get thrown around in powerpoint presentations. It's like someone saying they know a lot about networking technology since they once read a marketing brochure from a phone company. >You’re just here to feel good Well talking about the war seriously for once without getting banned is really nice, so I do feel pretty good, the other guy I replied to here is a real breath of fresh air. I enjoy learning. I don't enjoy having my time wasted by idiots. > I’ll post about it if anyone is actually interested Anyone can just search DTIC and find some buzzword salad masters thesis paper or whatever that'd do the same thing. Here, have one. They're a dime a dozen. >>15054 >maybe AA assets? I guessed so too. If you look closely the little dots are a bit different from one another, but the image is too low quality to really make anything out. >I suppose the blue lines are the air defense sectors of responsibility That's my guess. >You mean the Air National Guardsman what's his face? yeah, that retard. > I didn't see the source leaks neither did I, but I really should look around, I'm sure they're out there somewhere. Cool clips btw, I love Kamov helicopters. Got any clips of the Ka-27 or Ka-29 from the war? I remember seeing an article somewhere about how the Ka-29 was getting refitted, and it'd be dope to see it dropping off marines or something. Not that I'm picky about cool footage, and I think that in hindsight I was too harsh on the gore. Although I stand by grenade drops on people who are already wounded being boring as hell. >>15063 >The only thing about the whole SEAD argument that holds true is that Russia cannot match US capabilities. I've said it before, he clearly thinks SEAD is a magic spell that makes air defenses vanish into thin air. If you read their posts like that and realize that any component of SEAD operations is, to them, a part of the magical "no more air defense" ritual, like a rain dance or something, it suddenly makes sense why they say the things they do. The post you replied to was the equivalent of saying "it no rain, so they no do rain dance, Russia no have rain dance juju".
>>15020 Like the other guy says, this is some racial hirearchy shit right here. If anything, the Russian military and leadership have consistently defied the stereotypes during this war, they've shown adaptability, flexibility and grounded realism at every step of the way. The logistics have also proven to be excellent with the flexibility to transport huge numbers of troops and equipment to urgent areas, not to mention supplying the entire front of this high-intensity conflict for 3 years and counting. Not bad for a peasant low-IQ mitary I'd say.
>>15067 >this is some racial hirearchy shit I really do think this is the root cause of the problem with the NAFO people. It's not that they support Ukraine or even that they dislike Russia that causes them to be unable to engage rationally with the war. It's that they imagine that there is a hierarchy of races, and that Russia is lower on it than Ukrainians, and consequently nothing Russians do will ever be as good as what Ukrainians do, and that Ukrainians will never be as good as the master race, which they usually call NATO as a euphemism. Even if they don't use those terms when they think about it, that's the basic structure of their thoughts, and it essentially precludes the ability to comprehend Russia behaving intelligently or Ukraine (or god forbid NATO) doing something worse than Russia. I don't think there is any way we can really get through to people like that. It's probably best to just ignore them when they show up.
>>15066 >and it'd be dope to see it dropping off marines or something. There was exactly such a case a while ago when they boarded a Turkish cargo ship. >"it no rain, so they no do rain dance, Russia no have rain dance juju" lol, prety good summary. Make up an arbitrary reason to support a foregone conclusion and run in a circular logic with it forevermore. Russia is bad, can't be good without SEAD, no SEAD because low IQ.
>>15077 Which is even funnier considering Ukrainians are basically mostly Russians and were considered to be backwards hicks back in the day. But yeah, this line of thought is ingrained in a lot of people through media portrayal. Once you start paying attention to the language used and things emphasized. Like that shitheap of a show Chernobyl that was lauded as some historically accurate drama, but had such absurd scenes and dialogue, Goebbels would have considered it too on the nose.
>>15046 >they do airstrikes pretty much constantly yes, they launch jdamski's at maximum ranges from a long way inside russia that are just about able to hit forward and rearward positions on the frontline. i do think that's different from actual heavily utilized air superiority. >The USAF took extremely heavy casualties from AA during that war, and IADS have become much more advanced since then. yep, and they were figuring out how to deal with those during that war. during operation desert storm, the US faced a much denser and arguably more intergrated air defense system than russia did in ukraine, SEAD worked pretty well there, as it did in the balkan wars, with minimal casualties in return. please go ahead and tell me how turning off your targeting and acquisition equipment because dozens of SEAD aircraft are flying sortees over your head daily, is going to magically shoot down said aircraft and stop them from carrying out their missions. sure, you can absolutely do SOME damage by occasionally setting up and trying to shoot down some aircraft, but this is a very different scenario from the situation in ukraine, where russia, since the end of the beginning of the war, has absolutely refused to go anywhere near ukrainian AA coverage if at all possible, that's air superiority to you? >A modern IADS does not keep all of their radars switched on most of the time. You're demonstrating incredible ignorance of how the landscape has changed in the last 50 years. yes, and? aircraft aren't flying around blasting out signals at all times either, they can do passive detection just as well. you can try to shoot your shot when you think you've got a solid firing solution but that's also going to mark your location to every aircraft in the area, just attacking in and of itself will put you in danger. >That's happening right now with Russia against Ukraine, so I don't know what you think that proves. it isn't though, lol, neither ukraine nor russia is really finding any success in hitting smaller mobile strategic targets behind the line anymore. i'm talking about a scenario where russia is flying over all of ukraine and hitting any transport they can, you seemingly refuse to acknowledge that this is possible, just because russia can't do it. >SEAD isn't a panacea, or a magic spell that makes air defenses disappear. It's a complex and extremely difficult component of an air campaign that needs to be performed nearly continuously in order to enable exploitation of contested airspace. oh i know that, i've made numerous references to continuous aircraft coverage but you seemingly just ignore those, and complex and extremely difficult is right, which is why countries with an afterthought airforce like russia and many others are not capable of this. pleasant talking to you, and if you're willing to give me that reading list, i'd appreciate it, there may be something of interest there for me. btw the defensive and degrading tone just ends up coming out as severely impotent rage instead. i can talk about whatever i want, and say it however i want, i don't require some random anon's approval for whatever i squirt out of this keyboard every time i do it. if you want to rub your dick on me and show me who's boss, then actually show it off instead of alluding to it every next sentence like it's a dragon ball Z outro, not that i'm forcing you to waste a bunch of your time doing so, choice is up to you.
>>15047 currently, yeah, russian arty fires numbers continue to drop, it's pretty visible on IR sats, they're trying to compensate for this by dropping more glide bombs. ukrainian arty is generally far more accurate, so a smaller amount of shells is able to do more work, not exactly a lot of D30's in ukraine's arsenal, when compared to russia, anyway.
>>15063 >that russia cannot match US capabilities that's putting it lightly, you're upset about the technicality that *technically* russia can do some amount of SEAD, they're not completely incapable of it, even if it's effect is so light that they can basically never fly over ukraine's border to strike at deeper targets or they're in immediate high risk of losing their airframe. you're so upset about this that you haven't noticed nobody is defending that notion, most have just pointed out that they can't do SEAD in sufficient numbers and ability to make a serious difference, which is exactly what you've stated here.
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>>15079 >1st clip Jesus Christ, that pilot is fucking good. Compensating for uneven prop wash and hovering next to a moving target in windy weather on choppy seas, and then compensating for a bunch of changes in balance as people climb in. I can't find "Russian Aviation" on Youtube, is it a telegram thing? >>15080 >2nd clip there is something about how those coaxial rotor choppers fly that is just slick. It's the way they don't have quite as clearly defined a front and back I think, so they sometimes just sort of slide along through the sky. I know it's hard, but we've gotta stop feeding the trolls btw. No matter how juicy the bait. I know there is a lot of tantalizingly stupid things you feel like you could just rip into, but anything you say will slide over their smooth brain without penetrating it. God damn it's hard for me too.
>>15066 >part of the magical "no more air defense ritual" this is a pretty sad showing, i understand how complex and difficult these OPS are, and how they have to be performed intensively over weeks to months to effectively degrade air defense and keep the remainder hidden and minimally disrupting your operations, but you forget that people are pointing out russia is currently stuck in this mire because they CAN'T do that, they can't leverage their airforce to that degree because they're not capable of doing it, and because of that, they cannot keep ukraine's airforce on the ground, and they cannot make life absolutely impossible for ukraine by performing a heavy aerial bombing campaign over every single part of their country to the degree that other countries with GOOD S.E.A.D capability can. i'll excuse all the downright resentful and angry end points as you just being angry and resentful because cuckchan constantly and unjustly bans any and all pro-russian arguments, so whatever, idc.
>>15082 Again, Russia cannot eliminate Ukraine's radar coverage without starting WW3. And the USAF in Yugoslavia and Iraq wasn't facing Patriot batteries, they were facing Dvinas from the 60s. Yugo air defences were never fully suppressed either, despite the much smaller area of land. Radars are also hunted constantly, just because you don't see it, doesn't mean it's not happening (don't @me nerd, I know these are SHORAD, it's just an example).
>>15083 This is just out of touch with reality at this point.
>>15088 >russia cannot eliminate ukraine's radar coverage without starting ww3 sure, it can't get rid of western ISR, but it's inability to consistently destroy or suppress ukraine's own stuff is not a choice, it's an inability. i see this a lot from pro russians, everything russia doesn't do is a choice, rather than an inability, russia is just intentionally handicapping itself like an anime protaganist, as a gesture of goodwill, and could totally do things that would make the war easier for themselves because they just love being at war so much. nobody is pulling punches in this conflict, if russia thinks it can actually do an oppressive SEAD/DEAD campaign and neuter ukraine's ability to defend themselves, they would. >>15089 hey man, i'm not a paragon of truth, you can check it out yourself if you want.
>>15088 >>15089 stop eating the bait. I know it's tasty, there are things I want to rip into too. He's not going to engage seriously though, he'll just keep repeating the same shit the moment he feels like he can get away with it. Instead let's just talk about air defenses. Did you know the Pantsir can engage incoming anti-radiation missiles and the Verba actually can be linked to the IADS so the operator can see incoming aircraft before they are in visual range?
>>15085 Glad you agree then. >>15090 No, Russia cannot do what the US can, i.e. dedicate thousands of planes at once, specialized EW platforms, stealth niggatry, tomahawks, drones, HARMs just floating everywhere just waiting for a target. So, no, Russia cannot do SEAD at the scale the US can. Nobody can. So why would that be the default standard for SEAD, if only one country can do it? >hey man, i'm not a paragon of truth, you can check it out yourself if you want. So according to you Ukraine has fire superiority (even though Russia is outproducing the entire Ukraine helper block in shells by far), but doesn't need it anyway since their artillery is so much more accurate, but somehow Russians are still gaining ground all along the front? That's your story?
>>15086 I'd say that pilot is a typical cowboy who takes safety guidelines as a suggestion. Don't know what channel it came from, I grabbed it off a completely different one. >I know it's hard That's what she said.
>>15092 Did not know that about the Verba, pretty cool tidbit. Got any details on how it looks display-wise?
>>15095 > i.e. dedicate thousands of planes at once In a hypothetical US intervention in Ukraine where the US tries to treat Russia like it treated Yugoslavia and engages in an air campaign without putting boots on the ground in Ukraine, I don't think the US could dedicate thousands of planes at once for SEAD missions. The closest major American air base is Incirlik, that's the only one that's in F-35 range, and that's just barely, since Crimea is in F-35/F-15 range from Incirlik but the rest of the front isn't. So everything else is coming from a smaller base that is being borrowed from a NATO ally, or using aerial refueling to reach the target, which leads to some serious bottlenecks in what can actually be used in a single strike, especially since Russia would be trying to shoot down the tankers and AEW&C planes. I think that the US could only actually use a few hundred planes at a time in that scenario. Certainly nothing to sneeze at, but the disparity in total quantities of planes both sides could muster at a time would be much smaller than people think, and Russia would have the advantage of operating inside of its IADS. >>15097 >Got any details on how it looks display-wise? Afraid not, it was just mentioned in Mihajlo Mihajlovic's book Defending Putin's Empire - Russia's Air Defense System. That book is definitely worth checking out if you haven't already. I'm pretty sure it's on Libgen.
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>>15095 The Russians should put a custom made level 4 vest and helmet on bear, give it some meth or PCP or something, and sent it into Ukrainian trenches. It'd be unstoppable without heavy weapons.
>>15100 I think in that hypothetical the play would be a lot different. It wouldn't be opening with shock'n'awe, but instead a lot of standoff distance shit to slowly degrade Russian AA. Realistically, I don't think Russia could win this scenario, the US would just do the same Russia is doing right now, stay at standoff range and lob stuff at the enemy. >Afraid not Found a description along with a picture of the visor. Interesting stuff, I just thought they made the missile better. https://www.army-technology.com/projects/verba-9k333-man-portable-air-defence-system-manpads/?cf-view&cf-closed
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>>15106 >I think in that hypothetical the play would be a lot different. It wouldn't be opening with shock'n'awe, but instead a lot of standoff distance shit to slowly degrade Russian AA. Realistically, I don't think Russia could win this scenario, the US would just do the same Russia is doing right now, stay at standoff range and lob stuff at the enemy. I think that in that hypothetical scenario Russia would hit targets with nuclear weapons if needed. The conflict might not escalate into a massive general exchange of nuclear warheads between the US and Russia, but Russia would use nuclear weapons to neutralize the air bases the strikes were being launched from if it couldn't do it with conventional weapons. Russia might be able to do it conventionally though, since the US only has so many bases that can support those kinds of operations, and the USAF only has so many stratotankers and AEW&C planes. I wouldn't want to be in Europe if it happened, since I think there is a non zero chance Russia would decide that in order to avoid escalating into a general nuclear exchange, they would use chemical and biological weapons to clear a path for their ground forces to reach the air bases in Germany. The conflict would very quickly turn into WWIII no matter how the European front escalates though, because with the US busy with Russia, China would definitely take a crack at Taiwan and North Korea at South Korea, and Iran might even take a swing at Israel. I am sure other conflicts would flare up all over the world, like maybe there would be another Yugoslav war. The only thing we can really talk about in a hypothetical scenario where the US is conducting SEAD against Russia is the scenario and the first strikes, since after that it'd become way too chaotic to have any idea what would happen. > I just thought they made the missile better. Yeah, I thought so too. Having MANPADS be part of your IADS aside from giving them an IFF interrogator is pretty crazy, but it's damn cool. It shows to the importance Russia places on networking their IADS capabilities together. A lot of Russian air defense stuff has capabilities I tend to think of as "party tricks". Another example of a capability I think of as a party trick is that the TOR can apparently lock onto and destroy bombs that are dropped at it. I am sure it's got legitimate uses, but it's kinda a weird capability and stands out. I've got a whole book about the TOR system that I've been meaning to read.
>>15095 Russia can’t do SEAD, and I’m trying to explain WHY. You just want to hide behind the overwhelming dominance of the US which you feel is a good-enough excuse.Ie, no one can do SEAD like the US can so obviously Russia can’t do SEAD. The REASON WHY Russia can’t do SEAD like the US can is only partly due to technology and budget. The MAJOR reason, the MAIN reason, is that the Russian military does not have the organizational power to tie all the moving parts of a SEAD campaign together to make it work. AD is a SOLVED PROBLEM since Vietnam when the USAF and USN had to learn how to deal with SAMs. The first, and most powerful way was to use Wild Weasel tactics. Leveraging the physics of rocket-powered missiles (No-Escape Zone) a doctrine was developed for baiting AD to engage planes at bad ranges allowing planes to reliably evade thereby wasting those missiles. By the end of Linebacker 2 the NVA had stopped using SAMs altogether in order to preserve the few shots they had remaining, they were utterly defeated. For those who are interested to learn: No-Escape Zone refers to the powered flight envelope of a missile. The rocket motors on missiles use up all their fuel once ignited, and do not shut off / re-start, their energy is used up all at once (ignoring things like Meteor which aren’t relevant in Ukraine anyway). It’s a bit more complicated of course when you add in multi-stage boosters and multi-density rocket fuel etc but the fundamental principal still applies. In that period of time in which the missile still has fuel, it is said to be inside of the No-Escape Zone, named for the fact that no plane will be able to evade a missile that is still in powered flight. However, MOST of a missile’s maximum range is OUTSIDE of the NEZ. To engage at longer ranges, a missile boosts high into the air in a wide ballistic arc and then spends most of its time gliding passively downward towards the target. Each time it maneuvers it bleeds energy further. Wild Weasel is based on exploiting this low terminal performance of SAMs being used at long range; within the NEZ the plane will probably die but outside of it the plane will probably survive — BUT only if certain conditions are met: 1. Skilled pilots working in formation. 2. Good radar coverage to detect incoming missiles. 3. Strong coordination between air control and pilots And THAT is why Russia can’t even do Wild Weasel, let alone more advanced forms of SEAD. They have the planes and they have (probably) the pilots — but they do NOT have the other critical pieces such as good radar coverage and most importantly STRONG COORDINATION between all these pieces. The organizational power of the Russian military is poor, it’s really that simple. Because even IF they could bring all three factors together — for how long? As an ongoing campaign over many days and weeks? No, because the Russian Air Force will probably fall apart along the way for one of many sundry reason related to having a WEAK ORGANIZATION. Planes under such heavy stress will quickly run out of spares because critical logistics chains aren’t up to snuff. Radar specialist gets injured / sick and the AWACSs fails because the training pipeline didn’t supply a sufficient number of specialists. Someone in the command staff screwed something up causing a glitch in the chain of command thereby grounding the whole operation because Russia’s command staff is really weak and failure-prone. The REASON why I named, specifically, Russia’s weak OFFICER CORPS is because that’s the institution which makes a modern high-quality military capable of doing things like SEAD. A strong officer corps must be there to set up robust logistics trains, make complex operations run smoothly, deal with all the complex moving pieces in something like SEAD. It’s a complex human endeavor and without a strong leadership component it will simply fall flat on it’s face. It’s the reason why peasant militaries do so poorly in modern warfare. Did you read the leaked readiness report of the Moskva? Want to know why it was a barely functional heap of garbage? Because there wasn’t a strong chain of command in the navy and MoD generally which would have made sure the ship’s readiness met an acceptable standard. That’s one tiny example, the lack of leadership is ENDEMIC throughout Russia’s armed forces and the thing which turns it into a JOKE. I didn’t just make it up to make you feel bad or to tickle my racism.
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>>15122 He’s right though
>>15109 Everyone is probably aware that Russia would be forced to respond in a nuclear manner eventually, that's why nobody is going to intervene, despite the bluster. >>15121 Your conclusion is just plain wrong. Russia (or rather the SU) did not structure its air force to focus on such missions, it was always an emphasis on a frontal aviation aspect combined with long-range interceptors. And that's exactly how it's being employed. Again, the way the US does SEAD is due to their massive investments into it as part of their doctrine, nobody else can do that, not the French, not the British, not the Germans, nobody. So apparently all of those are peasant militaries.
>>15125 >Your conclusion is just plain wrong. Of course his conclusion is wrong. His points don't even actually make sense as arguments in support of his conclusion. He might not even believe in his supposed conclusion. He's just trolling you. You need to stop gulping down all that yummy bait. You will literally never convince him. Everything he knows about SEAD is stuff you could learn in 20 minutes by reading some articles. If you argue with someone who isn't engaging in good faith, you're going to lose no matter what.
>>15125 >Everyone is probably aware that Russia would be forced to respond in a nuclear manner eventually They might not, it'd require a lot of very careful diplomacy from both sides to avoid it, but there are paths that both sides could take that would not require nuclear escalation. An example would be the use of chemical weapons to open a large gap in the defenses at the front extremely quickly and just end the conflict before the US strategy of standoff attacks could tip the war in Ukraine's favor. The standoff attacks would still be dangerous to US planes, since Russia's air force is geared for long ranged interceptions, and the standoff strikes would be operating near the edge of their envelope. There are escalation options that aren't nuclear war, but some of them are arguably worse, like decimating Ukraine's population with biological weaponry.
>>15134 Hence why I said I won’t engage the discussion with you. I KNOW you don’t care. I went against my better judgement to respond anyway and this is the result There is literally no point discussing it with you because you don’t WANT to learn anything, you want to just enjoy social feedback loops — just like most everyone. Sure I got to flaunt my superior knowledge but what was the end result? I may as well flaunted it on Substack or something, it’s pointless here
>>15142 >reee you pointed out that I'm a fucking moron and laughed at me rather than taking my shitty bait If you had worked harder to make your bait believable I might have kept taking it. Don't be mad at me for not taking the bait, be mad at yourself for making such shitty bait.
>>15149 Regardless of whether he's really retarded or just pretending, he's not engaging honestly. If he were he wouldn't try to pretend he is an expert because he read an article or two about SEAD once, and would instead just say what he is really thinking. Everything he's saying is just rationalizing backwards from the conclusion that Russians are inferior/incompetent. Just like how you can't convince a young earth creationist that Noah's flood wasn't real by showing them evidence of the geologic column, you won't convince this guy that he's wrong by explaining how military operations work, because creationists don't talk about geology because they care about geology, they do it to try to defend their faith. Similarly NAFO people don't talk about military matters because they care about them, they do it to defend their belief in a hierarchy of races where Russians are at the bottom.
>>15140 In today's environment I doubt Russia could do any large push like you describe. Modern ISR and drones everywhere make that a pretty daunting task. Not to mention the insane losses of equipment already sustained. Plus, using chemical weapons is exactly what planners envisioned as a precursor to using nukes back in the day. Personally I am really concerned of the mental conditioning that was/is going on about nuclear war. As in, Russian nukes don't work, they're old, they're not that bad, nuclear war is survivable, the Chinese steal fuel from theirs too btw.
>>15150 >Russians are at the bottom At least they have good company along with all the other peasants that can't do SEAD.
>>15155 >In today's environment I doubt Russia could do any large push like you describe. I think that it wouldn't require a particularly large force. A large section of the front suddenly being cleared out by chemical weapons would free up all the troops who were fighting there, and chemical attacks on logistical hubs would massively slow down any response to the breakthrough. Chemical weapons aren't just lethal after all, they're also capable of area denial. >Not to mention the insane losses of equipment already sustained. While Russia has lost a decent amount of equipment, they've hardly taken heavy enough losses to prevent them from conducting major offensives. They've just learned that big mechanized columns aren't exactly optimal for the current kind of fighting going on. >using chemical weapons is exactly what planners envisioned as a precursor to using nukes back in the day. It'd require careful diplomacy and clear communication as to what they'd consider to be worth escalating to nuclear warfare over, but it might be possible to prevent it from escalating into a general nuclear exchange. It's just interesting to think about alternative escalation paths other than nuclear weapons, I don't think any of it will happen. >Russian nukes don't work I don't get this, like part of the New START treaty was that we got to go in and inspect them. We know they work. >nuclear war is survivable It is, but the breakdown of the logistics needed to get food from farm to table probably wouldn't be. >the Chinese steal fuel from theirs too btw. Sorta related, I remember in an old Oppenheimer thread he mentioned that the Chinese actually kept their nukes partially disassembled for a long time after Mao's son tried to take control of some nukes during a coup attempt or something. Not that they didn't have a ton of working nukes or anything, just that they were kept in an insanely low state of readiness most of the time.
>>15155 >Modern ISR and drones everywhere make that a pretty daunting task. One thing I think is interesting to note is that nobody outside of Ukraine and Russia seems to be taking the lessons of this war particularly seriously. Drones being everywhere on the battlefield in Ukraine doesn't mean that they would be everywhere if Russia attacked Europe, and even once they acquire drones in adequate quantities, they're still years behind Russia and Ukraine in terms of experience in using them and fighting against them. Nobody in Europe is making a big push to acquire huge quantities of cheap drones to ensure every infantry squad has a few, and nobody is updating their doctrine to account for the increased importance of infantry with drones. If Russia decided to try to neutralize US air bases in Europe with a ground offensive, I think the Russians would make progress much more quickly against opponents who haven't spent the last 3 years learning alongside them at a breakneck pace.
>>15163 Yeah, it's survivable, bjt I don't want the experience either way. And it would make sense for the Chinese to keep low level of readiness for their nukes, as they mostly only have to be concerned with an Indian arsenal, everything else would have a buildup to war, kind of like now.
>>15165 We don't really know that. For all we know there are supply lines to make their own cheap chink drones being organized right now. And we definitely know they're all looking for antidotes to the drone menace. It's amazing they haven't been picked up by terrorist cells in the West yet.
>>15196 Actually I think the capability gap between armies at war and peacetime armies is genuinely concerning a lot of officers around the world right now, but it's not something they can easily remedy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bv2fjrJt3LU&t=933
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>>15196 The procurement procedures may differ from country to country and I'm unfamiliar with them but heavily relying on Chinese-made parts to equip regular army would probably be generally frowned upon. I assume that spinning up (pun not intended) domestic production would make the news before it reaches the scale necessary to sustain an actual war (that's thousands of drones every day). Seen news articles about European car manufacturers and similar factories looking for ways to stay afloat and offering their production capabilities to MIC. If one of them were to get a contract, it would probably leak. Moreover, it's not just the drones themselves that need to be constructed, but their operators have to be trained. They're much harder to operate than the commercial dji's. There is no stabilization or gps. Radio-controlled ones are extremely agile and easy to crash. Fiber-optic ones are more unwieldy and have a lot of inertia to them. Operators need to learn to recover from getting jammed, spot and avoid nets in time, dodge ground fire, account for lag when aiming at weak points of moving vehicles etc. When a government does something like that by the numbers and not at a frantic pace like Russia&Ukraine are, bureaucracy slows things down further. Maybe the West will opt to skip the operator part entirely and invest in the more automated drones with computer vision (aka man-made horrors) instead though. What the West is definitely doing, although probably not fast enough, is explore tech-based anti-drone measures, e.g. lasers or mgs wired to radars and/or cameras to intercept them. I also hear that the reason there's fewer lancet footage lately is because some portable Israeli-made radar is that good at pinpointing Zala's recon drones (works in conjunction with Ukrainian-made quadcopter drones who intercept these) as well as the proliferation of jammers. >t.NTA
>>15202 Yeah, bureaucracy and dinosaurs in the general staff are always a detriment. >>15208 I get that, but there's very few countries that can fully domestically produce their own drones without oitside supply. I know the French were to try and make their own semiconductor plant in the next years and probably others too. I agree with the thoughts about the rest, you still need to teach people how to use it, coordinate between units for maximum effect and all that. >I also hear that the reason there's fewer lancet footage lately is because some portable Israeli-made radar is that good at pinpointing Zala's recon drones (works in conjunction with Ukrainian-made quadcopter drones who intercept these) as well as the proliferation of jammers. I don't think so, there's still footage of Lancets regularly, they just don't see the light of day in the West. Also not as interesting to the public as chasing some unfortunate soul with an FPV drone.
>>15208 That's far better than I, the anon who he was replying to, would have been able to put it. >>15213 >Yeah, bureaucracy and dinosaurs in the general staff are always a detriment. Don't forget politicians. It's not like it's possible for the relatively young officers whose brains aren't calcified to get funding for a major restructuring of the armed forces onto the next appropriations bill. >there's still footage of Lancets regularly, they just don't see the light of day in the West. Also not as interesting to the public as chasing some unfortunate soul with an FPV drone. I find it really annoying that nobody has taken it upon themselves to make a big archive of all the Ukraine war footage that's come out. You'd think that'd be a big priority for OSINT types.
>>15208 >What the West is definitely doing, although probably not fast enough, is explore tech-based anti-drone measures, e.g. lasers or mgs wired to radars and/or cameras to intercept them. Cheap drones in the hands of infantry aren't the end all be all of weapons systems, but they're a major shift and it seems like a lot of western militaries are pretending we can just make counter measures that will bring back the good ol' days before they existed. A lot of people have vested interests in making sure things don't get shaken up too much. I know I keep bringing this up in the thread, but it's fascinating to think about how the Russian military is going to restructure itself in the years immediately after this war, and if they use their newfound and nearly unique prowess in this new style of warfare to curbstomp some of their neighbors like Georgia. Someone brought up a comparison to the Winter War in the refugee thread, and I think that's apt, but I also think there are strong analogues to the Russo-Japanese war in how the whole world watched a WW1 style battle take place and just ignored it because the people participating "weren't white". I mentioned that parallel on 4/k/ once and iirc the only response I got was "well Russians aren't white".
>>15213 >I get that, but there's very few countries that can fully domestically produce their own drones without oitside supply. Oh for sure. Producing a prototype is one thing, but a full cycle production, on large scale is something else entirely. We've all been lulled by the comfort of globalization and cheap Chinese labor for too long. As it is, afaik, practically all electronics (PCBs, cameras, motors, batteries) used in Ukrainian and Russian suicide drones are imported from China. Frames are 3d-printed locally. Fwiw, I've seen a post about some Russian manufacturer having spun up a domestic production of drone PCBs, so that's a start; realistically this is the best possible opportunity to revive this industry. > coordinate between units for maximum effect and all that. Totally forgot about that part, yes. >I don't think so, there's still footage of Lancets regularly, Hm you're right, at least I expected the numbers to be lower. Consulted https://lostarmour.info/tags/lancet and they've been sort of on par with the same months last year. Except for April, which has been a bad month for them Let's see if it's a fluke or a trend. Admittedly, I haven't been paying as much attention lately and just repeated what I heard from a milblogger/volunteer who brushes shoulders with folks directly involved. Wish I remembered which video it was, had it on as background noise a few days ago. I'll go over the recent vids when I have the time, just to get better context. Haven't heard or read anything else of the sort lately, though it is, of course, evident that a drone arms race is on. Wars truly do wonders to R&D. >>15216 >a big archive of all the Ukraine war footage that's come out. Still bashing myself for not having archived every obscure piece of media from the 2014 phase of the war. So much content gone. Early on, before things got too violent, there were independent livestreamers walking around with their phones out delivering visceral, unedited footage. Today, almost everything is filmed by drones, faces are masked or blurred, it's depressing. This time there's multiple major aggregators of the footage that comes out (some of them based in telegram though), but all of them seem biased and focusing on one side of the story so a one single archival place doesn't seem to exist and probably won't for a while until after this ceases to be a hot topic. >>15217 >a lot of western militaries are pretending we can just make counter measures that will bring back the good ol' days before they existed. Yeah, it's silly seeing some militaries placing more orders on tanks instead of drones when the current nature of warfare is such that tanks can't even properly serve their purpose and are often used from distances where they'd need a drone to correct fire for them anyway. It's not so simple, of course, e.g. Americans have had pic related for almost a decade, but it seems to only be issued to spec ops or something. >how the Russian military is going to restructure itself in the years immediately after this war Russia has entered the war completely unprepared in that regard and the less corrupt and indifferent officers have been moving heaven and earth to plug the most glaring gaps. There have been some improvements, e.g. easier fire mission approval, anti-air units now a part of the airforce (or was it the other way around? Either way, it improved coordination and reduced the amount of friendly fire) and forming an entire branch of military around UAV systems. Some areas will take ages to fix, e.g. military communications is a hot mess of baofengs, civilian dmrs, starlinks, telegram, discord and Soviet era wired phones. Also, to their credit, Ukrainians were the first to separate UAVs into a new military branch. For them, suicide drones have been such a perfect asymmetrical response and equalizer that I'm surprised more small countries don't invest in those instead. FSA did and it paid off handsomely (though arguably SAA would've broken all the same regardless). >curbstomp some of their neighbors like Georgia. Imho if the troops from Ukraine were to suddenly be freed up, they could overrun Georgia with or without the drones, just because Georgia is a small country with shitty neighbors, armed forces that aren't much to write home about and they don't have the land to trade for time to be used to speedrun their own drone program, so to say. Thankfully, the relations between the two countries are currently rather warm. I could see them invading Belarus if Lukashenko kicks the bucket and the pro-Western part of population does a Maidan though. Obviously not looking forward to it. Anything more serious than that I'm not sure Russia would have the resources and willpower to attempt for a while now. Too much Soviet surplus has been burnt through — and while most of it is junk by modern standards it still beats driving into battle on a spraypainted convertible'd Lada. The Soviets were an industrial powerhouse, Russia is not. I can't remember the last time I saw frontline footage featuring Tigr or Typhoon MRAP (maybe they'll show them on parade on the 9th?). Drones are amazing for widening the gray zone and locking areas down, but unless slugging it out (like R&U are now), you have to also advance. This modern take on Western front has become so tiresome and painful to watch.
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>>15082 Goddammit after I went on and on about not taking the bait, here I am coming back and gobbling down that yummy yummy bait. >they launch jdamski's at maximum ranges from a long way inside russia that are just about able to hit forward and rearward positions on the frontline. That means they have air supremacy over their own territory and the front line, and air superiority deep enough into Ukraine's territory to prevent Ukraine from conducting their own CAS. >i do think that's different from actual heavily utilized air superiority. That doesn't match the definition of air superiority used by the USAF, or of any other military I know of. One of the many indications of a complete lack of understanding of the topic is simply not knowing basic terminology, like the difference between air superiority and air supremacy. Another indication of poor understanding is treating air superiority and air supremacy as real things which exist, rather than abstractions designed to communicate complex states of affairs that are typically highly localized in both time and space. >during operation desert storm, the US faced a much denser and arguably more intergrated air defense system than russia did in ukraine That is untrue in every way that matters. While the popular accounts of the war claim that the Iraqi air defense network was formidable, in reality it was quite frankly totally inadequate, with no strategic SAMs at all, and the French made KARI system which you describe as being "more integrated" was only capable of tracking about 40 threats simultaneously, and didn't integrate any of their AAA at all. Here is an interesting article about Iraq's air defenses: https://balloonstodrones.com/2022/10/19/looking-back-at-iraqi-air-defences-during-operation-desert-storm/ This stands in contrast to how Ukraine has had large quantities of strategic SAMs since the very start of the war, and they have received constant supplies of new systems. Additionally their air defense network is highly integrated. While it's difficult to know the exact capabilities of Ukraine's IADS at this point, due to wartime secrecy and the unknown ways in which various systems have been integrated, it's likely to be a major point of focus for western assistance since it is easily put under the umbrella of intel sharing and advising rather than direct military aid. >please go ahead and tell me how turning off your targeting and acquisition equipment because dozens of SEAD aircraft are flying sortees over your head daily, is going to magically shoot down said aircraft and stop them from carrying out their missions. Modern IADS like those operated by Ukraine and Russia are actually capable of acquiring targets using targeting data from long ranged early warning radars, and can launch based upon that data and only activate their targeting radars for the last few seconds before the missile hits. I say modern, but really even the Krug was capable of that. If you can't suppress the long ranged early warning radars, then you can't really do much to suppress a modern IADS. More importantly, shooting down planes is not necessary for air defenses to achieve the goal of hampering enemy air operations, in fact shooting down planes implies they haven't accomplished that goal very well, since the attacker should be able to pick and choose where to employ their planes, and if they think there is a high chance of being shot down, they are simply not going to send their planes and pilots into that situation. >sure, you can absolutely do SOME damage by occasionally setting up and trying to shoot down some aircraft Modern air defense systems stay in near constant motion, even systems like the S-300 can go from marching to combat positions in five minutes. >russia, since the end of the beginning of the war, has absolutely refused to go anywhere near ukrainian AA coverage if at all possible It speaks volumes that you have to use such a grammatically tortured sentence. At the start of the war Russia had suppressed nearly all of Ukraine's air defenses through a combination of cyber warfare, air power, missile strikes, and aggressive ground operations. To use a bit of jargon that I think has fallen out of favor at the Pentagon, they conducted J-SEAD operations across multiple domains. >that's air superiority to you? yes, it is. It's also air superiority according to the US military and NATO definition. >yes, and? Being ignorant of 50 years of development in air-defenses is like someone in 'Nam thinking that air power is inconsequential because their understanding of air power comes from the use of biplanes in WW1. >i'm talking about a scenario where russia is flying over all of ukraine and hitting any transport they can No, you were talking about supply lines being constantly disrupted and storage depots being hit constantly. Both those things are happening. >you seemingly refuse to acknowledge that this is possible It's probably possible for Russia to temporarily suppress all of Ukraine's air defenses and strike wherever the hell they want, but it'd be insanely costly and they can already hit anywhere in Ukraine by means other than air power, so doing so would be stupid of them. Saying that Russia's air force should prove they are competent by launching a wasteful campaign to suppress Ukrainian air defenses across the whole country is like a creationist asking for a crocoduck to prove that evolution is real. It's not only not proof, but it'd disprove the thing it's supposedly proof of. >oh i know that, i've made numerous references to continuous aircraft coverage but you seemingly just ignore those A common tactic in online debates is to make an offhand reference to something and acting dismissive of it so that when people later go "you fucking moron, you completely ignored the importance of X" the person who didn't want to actually engage with that can just go "nuh uh, I already covered X, so I already won that argument and now I'll move on and act like you're an idiot if you keep bringing it up". >complex and extremely difficult is right, which is why countries with an afterthought airforce like russia and many others are not capable of this. For any airforce there is a level of opposition a point where they simply cannot sustain a SEAD campaign indefinitely, and one where they can't suppress enemy air defenses it in the first place. Even the US is unlikely to be capable of sustaining an air campaign against Russia for long. >if you're willing to give me that reading list, i'd appreciate it, there may be something of interest there for me. I actually didn't get this far into the post when I first read it, since I didn't want to take the bait. It'll take some time to make a reading list, and I'll try to keep it to stuff on libgen or otherwise available online. You should start with Clausewitz's classic "On War", that one's on Gutenberg. Next read Soviet Military Operational Art - In Pursuit of Deep Battle by David M. Glantz to get a general idea of Soviet doctrine and keep in mind that they have updated their doctrine much like we have. In terms of acquainting yourself with the specifics of anti-aircraft systems, I'd suggest Defending Putin's Empire - Russia's Air Defense System by Mihajlo Mihajlovic. I've mentioned it before in this thread, it's the best and most recent book on Russian air defenses, and to be honest I'm not aware of many books that provide in depth information of the systems Ukraine uses that aren't Soviet in origin, although I've never really looked since a lot of them are either so new as to be unlikely to have good books written about them, or are things that Ukraine has in small numbers that aren't really going to make a huge difference to the overall situation (I should probably find a book to recommend with good information on the Patriot though). I'll need some time to find good sources on the other side of things, since even if I remembered the titles of all those books about air power I checked out from the library as a teenager, most of them were pretty out of date even then. There are tons of other things I think it'd be good to read, like manuals about how to plan operations, some more in depth histories of wars like Iraq and Yugoslavia, but I'm going to try to keep this short, I've had to pair it down a lot because even my reading list keeps pushing this post over the 12000 character limit. >>15087 >i understand how complex and difficult these OPS are, and how they have to be performed intensively over weeks to months It's easy to say you understand something, but much harder to demonstrate it. I hate bringing up Dunning-Kruger, but it can be very difficult to be aware of one's own ignorance. >i'll excuse all the downright resentful and angry end points as you just being angry and resentful because cuckchan What I resent is having someone who clearly doesn't have a deep understanding of the topic try to lecture me about something I've had an interest in since childhood. It's not hard to tell that you don't know what you're talking about. >actually show it off instead of alluding to it every next sentence like it's a dragon ball Z outro The issue is that aside from correcting things, explaining why you're wrong on a fundamental level would require an education, not just a post on an imageboard. I could quite literally write a book about what you've got wrong, condensing it down into just a few pages would be pretty difficult. This isn't like a DBZ outro where they could just answer the question in one sentence (Goku is going to beat whoever the current arc villain is, but not for another 20 episodes). >>15121 >For those who are interested to learn This is going to be funny isn't it? >No-Escape Zone refers to the powered flight envelope of a missile. no, it absolutely doesn't. It's the zone where a plane is unlikely to evade a missile by maneuvers. >It’s a bit more complicated of course this is another example of that sort of cop-out I mentioned earlier. The definition you give is fundamentally wrong, but any response can just be ignored by going "well I said it's a bit more complicated". >MOST of a missile’s maximum range is OUTSIDE of the NEZ. A fundamental misunderstanding of the very concept of a no-escape zone will obviously lead to not knowing how to apply it. As an illustrative example, the NEZs for a B-52, stratotanker, or E-7 being targeted by a S-300 are very different from the NEZs of an F-22 or F-15 being targeted by the same. >To engage at longer ranges, a missile boosts high into the air in a wide ballistic arc Some systems do that, not all. It's also not very relevant since a missile coming down from a ballistic trajectory is typically moving at fairly high mach numbers.
[Expand Post]>low terminal performance of SAMs being used at long range Saying that they have low performance at that stage is inaccurate. With all of their potential energy converted into speed and most of their mass burned off meaning that maneuvers will have to overcome less inertia, it's pretty much the hardest time to dodge them. >The REASON why I named, specifically, Russia’s weak OFFICER CORPS is because Is because it's a nebulous enough statement that any evidence against it can be ignored, but it can also be used to justify believing whatever negative stereotypes you want, it's like WW1 and WW2 intelligence reports that relied on assessments of "national character" which were just thinly veiled racism. >It’s a complex human endeavor and without a strong leadership component it will simply fall flat on it’s face. It’s the reason why peasant militaries do so poorly in modern warfare. You said something reasonable, then immediately followed it with racist hogwash. While I prefer intelligent conversations, I can't deny that seeing someone ping pong between being intelligent and being a fucking moron isn't funny.
>>15219 >Still bashing myself for not having archived every obscure piece of media from the 2014 phase of the war. I bet all that stuff is archived somewhere but not in one place. Huge amounts of that stuff is probably scattered across a bunch of video streaming sites but not archived in any way that is searchable. >there's multiple major aggregators of the footage that comes out (some of them based in telegram though), but all of them seem biased and focusing on one side of the story so a one single archival place doesn't seem to exist and probably won't for a while until after this ceases to be a hot topic. That's a shame. I am kinda tempted to start my own archive. Curating and moderating it though would be a full time job, and I wouldn't exactly be able to run ads to offset the storage and bandwidth costs even before getting into the fact that it'd probably be a legal minefield. >it's silly seeing some militaries placing more orders on tanks instead of drones Tanks and drones fill different roles. Tanks aren't obsolete, and neither are attack helicopters. >tanks can't even properly serve their purpose and are often used from distances where they'd need a drone to correct fire for them anyway. I think is interesting to think about how various systems will be adapted to integrate drones. For instance tanks with a drone operator in the crew, possibly in the place of a loader. Another thing that might happen is IFVs with drone storage and launchers for the infantry inside to use, like an actually useful version of the old firing ports on APCs that were supposed to let them fire out the side. IFVs and tanks might even provide electronic warfare support for dismounted infantry, and act as repeaters to allow them to overcome jamming. >Russia has entered the war completely unprepared in that regard Everyone was completely unprepared for how much drones had changed the battlefield. >anti-air units now a part of the airforce The PVO was absorbed into the VVS around the end of the cold war, while the ground forces air defense units remained part of the ground forces chain of command. I don't know if the air defense units of the ground forces have been integrated somehow into the VVS or VKS, but I am still catching up on the war. >if the troops from Ukraine were to suddenly be freed up, they could overrun Georgia with or without the drones Of course, if hundreds of thousands of experienced combat veterans are sent to fight a country with a military that has like 30,000 active personnel they're going to win, I'm just interested in seeing it how it looks. It'll be a lot easier to see the revolution in military affairs that has taken place when it's placed up against an opponent that hasn't updated their military. >Too much Soviet surplus has been burnt through — and while most of it is junk by modern standards it still beats driving into battle on a spraypainted convertible'd Lada. The idea that Russia is trying to use Ladas as tanks is just propaganda. The use of reconnaissance units equipped with light but mobile vehicles like motorcycles and dirtbikes to scout ahead of their armored units is because they're not so stupid that they would continue using big armored columns that did little but attract fire. > can't remember the last time I saw frontline footage featuring Tigr or Typhoon MRAP You've demonstrated in this thread that you tend not to see footage that makes Russia look good. But even if they are less common in footage, it's unlikely that those would be used for the sort of light recon that the motorcycle units are doing, and delivering troops to hot zones is likely done with BMPs or BTRs, so the MRAPs are likely just not on the front lines much right now due to the nature of the fighting having changed again. >This modern take on Western front has become so tiresome and painful to watch. On the Western front of WW1, all was not actually quiet. Both sides were constantly innovating and feverishly working to break the stalemate, and the places with the least visible movement were frequently the locations of the most fighting and losses. That is similar now, and I personally find the innovation more interesting than the territorial changes.
>>15216 >I find it really annoying that nobody has taken it upon themselves to make a big archive of all the Ukraine war footage that's come out. You'd think that'd be a big priority for OSINT types. There's just too much of it. A lot is also random explosions with no damage assesment. >>15217 >It's fascinating to think about how the Russian military is going to restructure itself in the years immediately after this war Yeah, the huge vacuum of armored equipment loss is going to leave some opening for debate on what to do. It should be pretty interesting. >curbstomp some of their neighbors like Georgia Georgia is incomparable. It has neither the population, nor the size to withstand what Ukraine did. Few countries could. Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe after all (after Russia).
>>15222 >Huge amounts of that stuff is probably scattered across a bunch of video streaming sites but not archived in any way that is searchable. Not related, but it feels like searching anything in general has become so much more difficult in the past few years too. Searching for a particular topic (could be anything, like trying to troubleshoot a malfunctioning appliance or searching for a user-made photo of a product) produces fewer useful results than ever and it's all mostly just web-optimized articles and stock footage (lately it's also AI generated). At first, opening a page to find that the article is just a wall of tautology tailored specifically to repeat the same keyword search term over and over to improve SEO rankings was amusing in a way, but now it feels like that's what the majority of the hits are. Fewer and fewer results are specialized forums. Or maybe that's just what getting old is like, and/or the useful information is now posted inside social networks that require an account. > I wouldn't exactly be able to run ads to offset the storage and bandwidth costs Yeah no way, ads won't cover video hosting at all, would probably have to rely on donations. But then Visa & Mastercard act as moral arbiters of the highest instance and get to dictate what is verboten and if they withdraw it will be down to crypto. Personally, I've just been saving anything interesting and naming files in a way that makes it possible to then look it up later. Everything's sort of scattered across different PCs and lately the footage has become so repetitive (drone flies into an object, feed cuts) that I've only been saving the more unique ones and those that come a couple of particular categories. To give an example, one of the folders, last updated in March 2022, has 1354 files and takes up 9.7GB. The entire last year's haul is probably smaller than that — not for the lack of footage, it's just too repetitive to bother saving. >it'd probably be a legal minefield. It definitely can be (if the project gets enough notoriety) if one is a first-worlder. Having it registered on a Kuwaiti and hosted in UAE or something would ward off everything but the 3-letter agencies. >Tanks and drones fill different roles. Tanks aren't obsolete, Sure but it makes little sense to invest into more tanks when you don't have drones or anti-drone measures yet. Tanks take a huge risk whenever they get within enemy drone range (which is often over 10 km now) without some plan of countering said drones (properly tuned EW modules on the tank itself, allied drone teams on the lookout for their counterparts, artillery barrage, some other action nearby drawing attention, weather conditions etc). Having listened to an interview with a Russian tanker a couple of months ago, iirc most missions he talked about involved rolling to a pre-determined position, using indirect fire to hit a faraway target then bailing before the response came. Could be survivorship bias and the tankers who do old-school tank assaults just die before they get to be interviewed, I don't know. Utilizing a tank as infantry/ifv support at closer ranges seems to be a rare occurrence nowadays. >and neither are attack helicopters. Having a human in the seat definitely has its benefits and production lines for helicopters are already set up but from a cost-effectiveness perspective Bayraktar/Orion type of drones seem to be very lucrative. They carry similar payloads but have the benefit of being smaller and more expendable. A helicopter reqiures more maintenance. Pilots are fairly expensive to train and upkeep and losing them is costly, from a morale/optics standpoint as well. Case in point, Ukrainian naval drones vs Russian helicopters west of Crimea. Losing a dozen such drones is nothing, they are mayflies. Eventually losing a helicopter to such a drone was a touche and a PR disaster. Talking from an armchair here but on paper a combo of a strike drone loitering a dozen km from the frontline + a cheap disposable recon drone much closer, painting the target for a missile, sounds like a dream team. Gone are the days of Apaches indiscriminately unloading on infantry with an autocannon. >I think is interesting to think about how various systems will be adapted to integrate drones. For instance tanks with a drone operator in the crew, possibly in the place of a loader. Looking forward to seeing such developments. Interestingly enough, Armata developers promised a drone, attached by wire, that would do just that (and, obviously, Soviet tank design did away with loader crewmen ages ago), so at least someone on the team had forward thinking in a similar key. The possibilities seem to be plentiful, but we probably don't see the entire picture. Or maybe it's the other way around those in charge don't. Or both. > I don't know if the air defense units of the ground forces have been integrated somehow into the VVS or VKS, but I am still catching up on the war. Looked up what I was recalling in the previous post: >the Air Force and Air Defence Forces ceased to be subordinated to military districts and were placed under the direct command of the Russian Aerospace Forces. In addition, the naval infantry ceased to function under the brigade system, and began according to the division system. The source is Polish quoting Estonians (https://pism.pl/publications/russias-armed-forces-two-years-after-the-full-scale-invasion-of-ukraine#_ftn6) but the news is legit and I distinctly recall VKS-affiliated guys being excited about it. Something to do with improving coordination. >It'll be a lot easier to see the revolution in military affairs that has taken place when it's placed up against an opponent that hasn't updated their military. Oh yes, humanitarian side of things aside, that would be a sight to see. The opening days of ODS would be hard to beat due to the sheer scale and complexity of the operation and the amount of coordination required, but I'd expect a similar gap. Uncontested usage of drones gives such a major advantage it's insane. I wouldn't be surprised if some operators didn't have more kills than the best snipers of old. >The idea that Russia is trying to use Ladas as tanks is just propaganda. Not as tanks, no. Tanks don't even see that much use anymore. Most of the vehicles used anywhere close to the frontline are part of the logistics chain. All is fair in love and war so if a Lada is the only vehicle available then so be it. That does however beg the question why that is the case and why troops have to buy and pimp their own cars or rely on volunteers to do that for them. Attrition takes its toll. I just can't imagine there's that much surplus left and it's obvious that whoever's producing tigrs and typhoons can't keep up with the demand (or the military doesn't place enough orders on those). Hence the conclusion that since after the war units have to be re-equipped and it stands to reason that having a surplus is also necessary, it would take a while to restock both. >you tend not to see footage that makes Russia look good. Not exactly, since the beginning I've been following the conflict mainly through the prism of pro-Russian non-government sources. Obviously, to get a less distorted picture one has to also keep track of what the other side is showing or saying, at least in broad strokes. Not that the folks that I normally follow keep mum about the issues, they often do. One of such sources, an active duty officer faced so much pressure and threats from the within the armed forces after putting such issues to light he eventually shot himself. Imo these problems shouldn't be ignored. Sure, with the war on budget is stretched thin and vehicles cost money, but at ~$140k per KIA investing into means of reducing casualties seems more prudent. > it's unlikely that those would be used for the sort of light recon that the motorcycle units are doing, Lada isn't famous for producing motorcycles. Which reminds me, turns out according to those who used both electric bikes are superior to ICE ones, kind of amusing. But yes, there's legitimate reasons to use a bike an ATV at times. >and delivering troops to hot zones is likely done with BMPs or BTRs, The thing is, everything ~10km around the line of contact is a hot zone these days and these days the "getting there" part is more dangerous is actually holding the position. Some MRAPs are quite large and more conspicuous but I somehow doubt that the troops riding Nivas do that by choice and that they wouldn't rather have a Typhoon instead. Besides, honestly, I'm really not sure a BMP is more survivable than an average MRAP. For one, the idea of putting fuel tanks into the same rear doors that troops are supposed to disembark through because it is assumed that the enemy will always be in front of the BMP and won't be able to score a hit from behind has... not aged well. During assaults, most vehicles used by Russia tend to be armored, yes. During rotation and supply runs however it's whatever they can get their hands on, and usually unarmored. Watching compilations of Ukrainian suicide drone strikes on what appear to be logistics chains paints a similar picture. However whenever I look at Russians hitting Ukrainian vehicles, a much higher percentage of targets are MRAPs. They do have their own Mad Max cars or just regular civilian ones (often with number plates from EU countries, by the way), whereas Russia has to rely on what it has in storage or can produce, it can't import (except for Chinese, which I assume, are procured through MoD and in small quantities). > Both sides were constantly innovating and feverishly working to break the stalemate, and the places with the least visible movement were frequently the locations of the most fighting and losses. That is similar now Yes, definitely. >I personally find the innovation more interesting than the territorial changes. Understandable, it's just that until the front starts moving again, one direction or another, a lasting peace is unattainable. As for the innovation, I feel like the humanity has speedrun the drone tech far enough for one round, time to call it a day and go do some homework/restocking. Attached are a screencap of some aftermarket upgrades from a recent post in one channel, a rather shortlived story of a Niva used on what I assume is Chasov Yar part of the frontline (lasted a week apparently, but they're expected to be that expendable) and a helicopter blowing up a naval drone with mg fire recently; there have been calls for replacing these helicopters with strike drones not to endanger the crews.
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>>15228 >the huge vacuum of armored equipment loss I really don't think Russian equipment losses have been as substantial as are often claimed. I know they've lost a lot, but I've mentioned before that I think the Oryx figures are likely an overestimate rather than an underestimate, and I've explained some of the reasons why. >some opening for debate on what to do. It should be pretty interesting. I think the lessons learned will spur a lot of interesting development in tank and IFV design. I suspect that they'll either quietly abandon the Armata in favor of some clean sheet design based on the lesson's they've learned, or they'll try to crank out Armatas as quickly as possible to replenish their armored units. >Georgia is incomparable. It has neither the population, nor the size to withstand what Ukraine did. I'm aware that it would be a curbstomp no matter what, but even if it's only a brief demonstration, it'd be an interesting one. >>15229 >it feels like searching anything in general has become so much more difficult in the past few years too. I stopped using Google a few years ago, and that definitely improved my search experience by a lot, I haven't switched to searxng yet but I intend to. Right now I'm using duckduckgo and I have a big .txt file of sites to exclude from certain types of searches. I'm sure there is some way to just automate excluding them, but the .txt file is pretty simple. It is getting harder and harder to find anything useful though. >the article is just a wall of tautology tailored specifically to repeat the same keyword search term over and over to improve SEO rankings The first few time I saw one of those I was pretty drunk and thought it must make sense and I just needed to focus. I feel like the fact that those articles even work to increase search engine rank is a sign that companies like Google had all the actual talent leave more than a decade ago. It would not be hard to make that sort of shit not work, but nobody has fixed it. >Fewer and fewer results are specialized forums. Well there are fewer and fewer specialized forums, it's becoming a landscape of megacorporate monopolies with the backing of some government or another. >maybe that's just what getting old is like It's not because you're getting old, it's called enshittification. https://wikiless.northboot.xyz/wiki/Enshittification?lang=en >then Visa & Mastercard act as moral arbiters of the highest instance Moralfags are the greatest cancer upon the internet. >it makes little sense to invest into more tanks when you don't have drones or anti-drone measures yet. It depends on a lot of factors, like if you don't currently have any tanks then it's probably a good idea to acquire at least a few. It's not like drones cost much, for the price of a single t-72 you can get literally thousands of cheap Chinese drones. So for a small country with 0 tanks and 0 drones, it's not a question of getting tanks vs getting drones, it's a question of getting one more tank or enough drones to outfit every squad with a few. >Having a human in the seat definitely has its benefits and production lines for helicopters are already set up but from a cost-effectiveness perspective Bayraktar/Orion type of drones seem to be very lucrative. Attack helicopters are no longer considered fires elements in modern US doctrine, and that probably applies to Russian doctrine as well. Drones can do the fire support job that attack helicopters used to do, but they can't maneuver into the divisional deep area ahead of the armored brigades to prepare the way for them. https://redirect.invidious.io/watch?v=t1E6FXHQhDQ >Armata developers promised a drone, attached by wire, that would do just that I suspect that future developments in drones which are considered to be part of a tank will involve a variety of drones available to the rigger. I suspect that tanks and IFVs will have a specialized drone that is used to dogfight and shoot down other drones before they come in range, perhaps even a whole ecosystem of drones designed to protect armored systems will emerge, like fighters, interceptors, AEW&C drones, EWAR drones. >Oh yes, humanitarian side of things aside, that would be a sight to see. That's the spirit. Fuck pearl clutching, war's fucking beautiful. >I wouldn't be surprised if some operators didn't have more kills than the best snipers of old. I would. I think the war would be over too fast for anyone to rack up a serious kill count. >Most of the vehicles used anywhere close to the frontline are part of the logistics chain. true, and I think most of where you see ladas is going to be places which have already been cleared of mines, or at least where paths have been cleared, so the only benefit of an MRAP would be the shrapnel protection from artillery. I'd say the Ladas probably aren't optimal, but they're probably surprisingly close to an MRAP in terms of survivability, given their speed and the fact that the driver and passengers can bail extremely fast from a convertible. Welding on a little extra metal as shrapnel protection would close the gap even further. > Attrition takes its toll. I don't think that it's a sign of attrition, I don't think Russian equipment losses have been substantial enough to make a major dent in their warfighting capacity. >That does however beg the question why that is the case and why troops have to buy and pimp their own cars or rely on volunteers to do that for them. Motorized rifle units probably aren't given MRAPs, and the big Ural trucks they were probably expected to use as transport before the war are too dangerous to use near the front lines. Bureaucracy moves at a snails pace compared to the speed at which things change on the front line, so getting more MRAPs ordered and then assigned to them would take far longer than just coming up with a solution themselves. >Not exactly There have been multiple instances where you said something about a relative paucity of Russian footage and were demonstrated to be wrong, so please forgive me for being skeptical of claims you make about how much certain things appear. >Lada isn't famous for producing motorcycles. I've gotten used to ladas and motorcycles being mentioned in the same sentence. They serve different roles and I suspect that they are both adaptations to wartime circumstances rather than a symptom of desperation due to attrition. >according to those who used both electric bikes are superior to ICE ones I'm not surprised. There are a lot of advantages to the electric bikes, and the advantages of gas powered bikes aren't really going to come up much in the situations they are used in. >everything ~10km around the line of contact is a hot zone these days I think that for areas beyond 1-2km from the line of contact the modified Ladas aren't much worse than an MRAP. Especially if you're driving between islands of electronic warfare coverage. > the idea of putting fuel tanks into the same rear doors that troops are supposed to disembark through because it is assumed that the enemy will always be in front of the BMP and won't be able to score a hit from behind has... not aged well. They're supposed to drain the fuel from the door tanks and replace it with sand or dirt if they are expecting combat. It's not as good as proper armor, but it'll stop rifle rounds and shrapnel. >whenever I look at Russians hitting Ukrainian vehicles, a much higher percentage of targets are MRAPs Russia and Ukraine don't have identical things to worry about. Russia has to worry more about suicide drones, while Ukraine has to worry more about artillery. Russia likes to use artillery to just keep up pressure on supply lines and stuff, so shrapnel protection anywhere near the front is pretty much mandatory. Meanwhile Ukraine tends to use more precision stuff, so an MRAP isn't going to survive much better than a Lada, in fact in some ways it's worse, since splitting a squad between a couple Ladas makes each one a less appealing target for a precision weapon.
>>15231 >"Is of very simple, Boris." >"Tatar and Chuvash conscripts are of expendable." >"Mobile garden sheds constructed atop chassis of rusted out sixty year old tank hulls are not of expendable."


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